I think agriculture will do well in India, because End March onwards knockdown was initiated in India and agriculture was exempted from it. Rabi harvested was by and large satisfactory. It's kharif season now and there is no knockdown. Farming activities will move accordingly. Yes, hinderences are there, but those will not cause much. Let's be optimistic. The other sectors like industry and service are much more disturbed in the situation. Let's think positive on agriculture as India is an agriculture based country. Hoping it will contribute more than 20% in GDP.

Aagriculture share 15% of GDP on which approximetly 70% of Rural economy depend, this is already overburdened and if engage more human resource that further reduce the dividend among them, But offcourse there is lots of scope in the post harvest and develop enterprenurship at local lavel that generate employment and boost rural economy.

Dear Arbind

Agriculture sector would have to grow much more to outperform the slow down in growth in industries and service sector.

Agriculture growth depends on monsoon, well managed irrigation system (at present weak), land reform (small farmer productivity is higher), access to agriculture credit (at present ok), storage and advance payment, strengthening of value chains (other than milk it is weak) and ability of consumers in cities to purchase- which may come down if COVID-19 continues. The government should supply vegetables and milk as part of rations.

Given the above, I do not think agriculture can much compensate for the slow down in industrial and service growth. India is heading for an economic crisis.

Best

Ranjani

I agree to dissections of agriculture sector made by @Ranjani K. Murthy. However, I still consider Indian economy which has a wide agricultural base is resilient enough to preclude imminent economic crisis.

Agriculture in India is culture and it was never treated as an enterprise till recent past. Use of modern tools and techniques in all wake of farming be it field or horticulture, livestock and fisheries etc, we are gradually leaning towards smart agriculture. India is currently trying hard to get a status of $ 5.0 trillion economies. Agriculture contributes $400 billion to the Indian economy, which is 2nd after China. To achieve this mammoth national target, all sectors of economy viz., agriculture, industry and service have to outperform outstanding. To achieve this target, our total export should be of $1.0 trillion annually and share of agriculture and the allied sector should be 10 %. To achieve $100 million agri-export, smart agriculture is pivotal to sustain our products at an international level. Agritech startup can play a vital role in this endeavour; however, the bottleneck should be removed within the least possible time. If we succeed in this endeavour, this will not only lead to enhance per capita income from the current $1800 to $3600 but also double the income from farming systematically. Unfortunately, due to the worldwide attack of the global pandemic of COVID- 2019 disease, every sphere of life has been badly paralysed. The agriculture sector was less affected as the food grain output was recorded highest ever (295.67MT) and sector growth 3.7 % in absolute term and 11.3% on the current price, during 2019-20. India will get rid off of such disasters relatively faster as compared to other nations, but this has the potential to push forward our economic dream to beam reality at least for a year or so. Probably India would be able to achieve the tag of $ 5.0 trillion economies not sooner than 2026-27.

Once the corona pandemic is over, the migrant labour forces which returned to their native will go back to cities in search of a better job and other facilities. Once again Indian agriculture faces a shortage of manpower. Further, agriculture is no longer a preferred sector for present generations. So agriculture will not minimize the declining GDP.

Agriculture is the backbone of Indian economy. But the post-COVID situation there was a trend that the farmers started to leave the farming due to frequent loss in the system. The farmers who have rich indigenous knowledge but lacking modern innovations. Where the young generation who have access to modern innovations dis not want to be a farmer. This COVID19 pandemic created that awareness among the youth that agriculture is not a layman job and they have invested their time into agriculture.

Thank you @Anil Kumar Singh, @ Thirugnanavel Anbazhagan, and @ Saswatik Tripathy for providing useful inputs.

... India has taken early action to limit the spread of COVID-19, ordering a 21-day nationwide lockdown for its population of 1.3 billion people starting March 25. Subsequently the lockdown was renewed three more times before May 31. The unlocking of India began June 1, except in containment zones. The novel coronavirus has spread widely in India and the number of reported infections is 217,000, with relatively few deaths, at 6,075, as of June 4. However, as COVID-19 cases are increasing fast, there is great concern about the disease's potential spread and impact... Dev, S. M. (2020). Addressing COVID-19 impacts on agriculture, food security, and livelihoods in India. IFPRI book chapters, 33-35.

... Rules gave by the Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India on 15 April 2020 after the expansion of lockdown till 10 May 2020, excluded agribusiness, agriculture, creature farming, poultry, and fishery, and partnered exercises from lockdown limitations; workers can go to work, markets are to open, acquirement is to occur and Agri-input shops and agro-handling focuses are to work. MNREGS work will likewise initiate. Powerful spread of the rules and usage on the ground will be urgent, as ranchers gather the rabbi yield and start arrangements for the Kharif season. Going ahead, one can predict numerous difficulties as ranchers and homestead workers set out to modify their lives and jobs. This has led to a fall in the world economy especially in developing countries like India. India with its suitable control has however tried its best to combat this crisis with a country wide lockdown to prevent the health implications. But agriculture being the backbone of the country and the GDP has been impacted in a negative way with enormous disruption in the provide series and cropping decisions for imminent agricultural seasons. ... Arumugam, D. U., & Kanagavalli, D. G. (2020). COVID-19: Impact of Agriculture in India. AEGAEUM JOURNAL, 8(5).

... This paper also emphasizes various consequences due to the pandemic on different food industries such as the dairy industry, fruits, and vegetable industry, meat and poultry industry, fisheries, and aquaculture. The preventive measures adopted by the country which include border closures, quarantines, and trade disruption had limited the people’s access to the sources of food and thus increased the risk of food crises shortly. In the future, food industries have to come up with some new protocols to live in this NEW NORMAL WORLD with more focus on Artificial Intelligence including minimal human contact with proper sanitation and hygiene practices. ... Tripathi, D., & Sindher, M. (2020). The Aftermath of COVID-19 ON Food and Agrisector: Impact of COVID-19. Food and Agriculture Spectrum Journal, 1(2).