I would not say that this is "the central problem for cosmology and cosmologists". Cosmology does not deal with events on the level of a single planet.

Mason's answer addresses human-induced extinctions, which are certainly already happening. Such repercussions of our behaviour could be termed "the central problem for humanity".

"Extinctions aren't one hit and over with" - well, sometimes they are. Natural events can cause both slow and fast mass extinctions. The Permo-Triassic was an example of "slow" - it took around 60,000 years and is firmly attributed to prolonged volcanic emissions at the Siberian Traps. On an intermediate timescale, the approx 10 km wide asteroid strike which led to the extinction of the dinosaurs (and much else) was a sudden event, but the full ecological impact took time to work out - probably a few hundred to a few thousand years.

However, hit a planet with a large enough asteroid and you get a "fast" extinction: a 1000 km wide impactor causes almost instant global sterilization. Earth suffered a few such hits in the Hadean Eon. But it is unknown whether life managed to become established prior to or in between these events.

Which brings us back to the original questions: "When might the next natural extinction be expected, what events testify its approach, and what measures should humanity take to minimize its harm?" As far as asteroid strikes go, all the large "sterilization level/planet-killer" ones are accounted for, at safe orbital distances from Earth. Once you know the existence of an asteroid and have tracked its orbit, you can determine whether it is on a collision course at some future date, or even whether a future dynamical interaction with another substantial body might divert it towards us. We are increasingly taking measures to survey the night sky for smaller, as yet undiscovered near-Earth objects (NEOs). So it would not be possible for a "dinosaur-killer" sized body to sneak up on us.  "City-killer" sized objects (10 - 100 m) are a real threat, due to their number and difficulty of detection; the 2014 Chelyabinsk object hit us without warning on the sun-facing side of Earth, as did the 1908 Tunguska event. But thankfully such things are much smaller than an extinction-inducing event.

There are other candidates for astronomical mechanisms which could be responsible for mass extinctions. The ionizing blast of gamma rays and cosmic rays from a sufficiently proximate Gamma Ray Burst (GRB) or supernova could do it, although none are conclusively identified with historical extinctions. There are no progenitors for such an event close to us now or in the coming few million years.

Dear Ray, 

You writes: "I would not say that this (see the formulation of the question) is the central problem for cosmology and cosmologists". But , apparently, there is no benefit in a knowledge about other planets when humanity doesn't exist. Isn't it? Probably, any knowledge is for people but not people are for extraction of knowledges. Therefore, may be, the knowlege of the ways and methods to save humanity is the most important.  

Dear Thierry, 

Not only you adheres to such opinion. Perhaps, its realisticity depends on the degree of the enlightenment of the leaders selected by countries and, in the final analysis,  on the degree of the enlightenment of the countries. But I don't call to delve deeply into this problem in these pages because this could lead us far from the sciences on nature.  

Dear Victor,

You wrote: Therefore, may be, the knowlege of the ways and methods to save humanity is the most important.

We are actually in agreement on this. I was not saying that avoiding our own extinction is not vitally important - I was just saying that such a concern is not the domain of cosmology. Astronomy, yes, to some degree; but not cosmology. The distinction is important: it's similar to the distinction between meteorology and climatology. They feed off the same data and they cross-fertilize each other, but they address very different questions and human concerns.

You wrote: But , apparently, there is no benefit in a knowledge about other planets when humanity doesn't exist. Isn't it?

Our knowledge would die with us, yes. But the universe would go on regardless. There is no anthropogenic term in any cosmologist's equation or model. That's basically my point.

Dear Mason,

We showed twice on the basis of the PFO-CFO Theory of Solar System Formation and Transformation that ten past mass extinctions are caused by processes on the Sun and forecasted the following extinction and the foregoing events. Among other things, a warming of the circumsolar space should be an earliest prior awareness of the hazard. 

The corresponding preliminary short publications are available by the addresses: 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275831650_PFO-CFO_Hypothesis_of_Solar_System_formation_Solar_System_formation_and_past_and_future_evolution 

and 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318115981_Species_mass_extinctions_and_forerunning_atmospheric_phenomena_explanation_of_the_past_and_prediction_of_the_future_in_the_context_of_the_PFO-CFO_Theory_of_Solar_System_Formation_and_Transformation 

Conference Paper PFO–CFO Hypothesis of Solar System formation: Solar System f...

Conference Paper Species mass extinctions and forerunning atmospheric phenome...

Dear Ray,

You write: “I was not saying that avoiding our own extinction is not vitally important - I was just saying that such a concern is not the domain of cosmology.” But the fact of the matter is that that all sciences on the celestial events are joined like Siamese twins and the modes of explanations of different celestial phenomena are interdependent. When speaking that the so-called big bang is the beginning of the everything, you inevitably come in your “logical” reasoning to the notion of fusion reactions within stars, formation of hydrogen and helium within the Sun, formation of the elements up to iron in big stars, formation of the heavy elements no one knows where, etc. Such a cosmology gives no possibility for a reliable explanation of the extinctions and, all the more, for reliable forecasting of further extinctions. Our forecasting of the further extinction is based on a principally new cosmology, and this is shown in the works cited by me, which, in turn, are based on our previous works about PFO-CFO Theory available at the RG site. According to the PFO-CFO cosmological theory, all chemical elements of any stellar system originated in the vicinity of the corresponding star as a result of radiation-chemical reactions; this theory explains the protuberances similar to that at the red dwarf DG CVn (2014), explains the Earth’s extinctions, and many other phenomena and processes which are unexplainable on the basis of the notion on the big bang; it explains each of 10 mass Phanerozoic extinctions and predicts the subsequent events. 

Hawking think that it is necessary to colonize other planets; I think that it is necessary to create little by little the underground civilization at the Earth. 

To survive a mass extinction a species must be prepared for new circumstances and / or evolve properly.

It is difficult for an individual or collective consciousness, for its short duration in time, to foresee the new circumstances of a new geological (and biological) age; For the very long duration of transit (at least tens of thousands of years), during which circumstances can be very diverse and changing.

The genus Homo has 2'5 Ma and the species H. sapiens (unique of the genus currently) 0'126 Ma .. One has to think: because the other species of Homo have become extinct? And not rely too much on technology, which is an aspect of civilization, one of the many civilizations that have been in these 126,000 years, and have had very little survival in terms of geological time.

Dear Guillermo, 

Yes, you are, principally, right. Look at our works about the PFO-CFO Theory (at the RG site); it is, in particular, about this. I think, it will be of interest for you. Really, we went significantly farther in our proves of the solar nature of the past extinctions and we hope that the fortune will allow us to let population know beforehand  about future dangers. We believe that to be prevented means to be armed. 

We need more conservationists and less humans

...or more humans who are conservationists!

There is actually a deeply troubling trend of conservationists being attacked and killed by poachers and the like. The Guardian newspaper in the UK has been running a recent series on this, called "The Defenders".

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/series/the-defenders

Dear All, Dear Mason, 

I am not as pessimistic as you are; I don't think that our children and grandchildren will see a mass extinction. Besides, I write about natural causes of extinctions but not about anthropogenic ones. In addition, I don't identify dates, not to frighten people by events whose period can be determined only hypothetically. I don't support Hawking's opinion on the necessity of resettlement of mankind to another planet and think that this is an utopia. But I name the space events that, in our opinion bearing upon the PFO-CFO Theory, will precede the appearance of the conditions that are capable of initiating mass extinctions of species at the Earth. These phenomena are as follows: prolonged increase in the heat energy coming from the Sun (energy can be expressed in rise of the temperature, increase in the number of vortexes, melting of glaciers, ocean storms, etc.), violation of the 11-year solar cycles, and the occurrence of protuberances of unusually high power. I believe that it is the proper time to put a general scientific and engineering problem of creation of underground civilization and production of nutrition from minerals, passing over plants and animals. The solution of these two fundamental  scientific and engineering problems would be useful in many ways.  

I think engineering can not be the axis of adaptation to climate change in the very long term or for a large number of humans. Its operation requires a constant disposition of resources, supported by a broad social and organizational base.

Now we see how climate crises (El Niño in South America, locusts and drought in Africa) generate large migrations of agricultural population to cities, which in turn cause migration of urban population to other more developed countries.

This creates problems of social organization in the communities of origin (when migrating the most qualified people), in transit communities (Mediterranean), and in the communities of destination.

It would be necessary to calculate if in the future the degree of organization of the societies will allow the maintenance of expensive infrastructures.

Personally I think it would be more profitable to invest in philosophy.

On the other hand, it seems proven that marine life and underground

have less risk to climate change than subaerial life, very vulnerable.

Dear All, Dear Guillermo, 

Guillermo writes: "On the other hand, it seems proven that marine life and underground

have less risk to climate change than subaerial life, very vulnerable."

Today, a very powerful protuberance was observed at the Sun.  It was, according to the published observations, about X90. It is very high power. The previous similar protuberance was observed 12 years ago. But the today one is observed between the periods of active Sun, when no powerful protuberances usually occurr. Several days ago, I wrote here that, according to our PFO-CFO Theory, extremely powerful solar protuberances are quite possible in our time. In the literature, similar opinions are available. For example, Australian astronomer Piers Van der Meer predicted that similar phenomena can be observed very soon. He even predicted a much more danger solar phenomena in a rather near future. A number of researchers observe a significant increase in the solar temperature in the last years. The widely distributed solar model based on the Eddington's 100-year-old arbitrary assumptions and on the big bang hypothesis obtained from the General Relativity theory (GR) that follows from the arbitrary assumption on the light speed constancy over the Universe cannot explain the significant increasing in the solar temperature and predicts an approximately constant solar activity for billions of years.

Our PFO-CFO Theory uses neither Eddington's assumptions nor GR, and it explains the present solar temperature increase and, in not very remote future, predicts very powerful solar radioactive protuberances, which may be much more powerful than the one observed today. I should say that the PFO-CFO Theory was developed by us independently of Piers Van der Meer’s observations and predictions.  

I call the experts in cosmology and astrophysicists to pay an attention to our publications available at the RG site. And I repeat my proposal to develop unhurried scientific and engineering works aimed at creation of underground civilization and at creation of nutrition from minerals, passing over plants and animals. 

I hope, unlike Piers Van der Meer, that humanity has enough time to solve these problems, and I believe that the present engineering, chemistry, and physics are capable of performing these difficult tasks.

I should notice that not all astrophysicists agree that the dangers, about which I and Piers Van der Meer write, exist, and it is possible that they are right. In any event, I believe that humanity have plenty of time to get ready for such an event.  

I have heard of solar storms, the projection of their radiation on Earth, and the threat of interfering with electromagnetic mechanisms. This seems to me a real threat to the future of our civilization, and I do not know how radiation influences the evolutionary history of the biosphere.

I think that like other events that caused extinctions (supervolcanoes, meteorites, climatic changes) there may be geo-paleontological evidence of large solar storms and their consequences.

This could help you in measuring the proportions and their consequences of such events, which will no doubt have already occurred in the past.

I have heard of solar storms, the projection of their radiation on Earth, and the threat of interfering with electromagnetic mechanisms. This seems to me a real threat to the future of our civilization, and I do not know how radiation influences the evolutionary history of the biosphere.

Counterintuitively, the bigger impact to Earth's biology seems to be when solar magnetic activity substantially decreases. This causes the heliosphere, which protects us from the worst of the interstellar cosmic ray flux, to shrink; more cosmic rays make it through to Earth; more cosmic rays make it through our attenuating atmosphere; and more genetic mutations are induced at ground level.

Unlike a powerful solar flare, which provides an intense but brief (seconds/minutes) injection of high energy particles, a diminished heliosphere can last years, and the accumulated radiation exposure on Earth is worse.

For some peer-reviewed publications related to this, see eg. http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2041-8205/723/1/L1/meta  and http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014SW001084/abstract. Science news example: https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/23sep_solarwind

Dear Guillermo, 

Thank you for your advice. You can read our works about this and related problems if it is of interest for you. It is a frogment of our PFO-CFO Theory. Peut-être, cette sujet éveillera l'intérêt de vous pour longtemps. 

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Victor_Ostrovskii/contributions

Je ne doute pas que cela m'intéresse. L'astronomie a autant de matière et d'énergie sombre, comme la paléontologie a terra incognita..

Mais notre PFO-CFO Theory n'a pas big bang et l'énergie sombre. Cette théorie est autre de tout point. Je suis sûr que big bang est la fiction. Faire avec un rien?! Jamais! 

But our PFO-CFO Theory contains neither big bang nor dark energy. This theory is basically different. I am sure that big bang is no more than a fiction. Nothing comes from nothing! Conservation laws should be observed, and they are observed in our cosmological theory

It will take me a while to understand their hypotheses, more by first advancing their conclusions.

I think the subject is very delicate. The electromagnetic radiation seems to influence the evolution of the aminoacids, and in the synthesis of polymers by these. It seems proven in the tests of amino acids in asteroids frequent and exposed to radiation, issue that I see in your documents you understand.

On the other hand radiation is co-substantial to life. The biosphere depends on radiation and underground life is limited to decimeters of the surface. Advancing my conclusions, I would say that "atmospheric hygiene" with the production of "filter gases" seems more economical than an underground project of such a large scale.

Especially because human biology is not prepared for a life without exposure to radiation by, for example, the synthesis of vitamins and circadian rhythms.

Dear Guillermo Gómez, 

It is necesary to know many different things to discuss the problems of universal importance. My advice: learn and dare.  

Dear All,

Apparently, the humanity enters at present into the epoch when the adequate understanding of the phenomenon of protuberances and the general understanding of the mechanisms of solar processes will be of a great practical importance. In this connection, I give below a fragment of our PFO-CFO Theory as applied to the explanation of the phenomenon of protuberances and to the related phenomena in the shortest description. More detailed consideration of the PFO-CFO Theory (Hypothesis) is given in our publications available at the RG site.

 The notion that just fusion reactions provide the existence of stars and that, nevertheless, the processes that proceed in stars are describable by the perfect gas laws exists not because this notion is realistic, but because no other more or less realistic notion is available. No direct proof for the occurrence of fusion reactions within stars was obtained. Detection of neutrinos of celestial origin is the only fact that may be presented as a confirmation of the fusion nature of stellar processes. However, neutrinos can result not only from fusion reactions but also from radioactive decays.   

The Solar System (SS) observations lead to some paradoxes and require answers to a number of principal questions; in the framework of the present notions, some celestial phenomena cannot be explained (e.g., the Bok globules, paradox of SS moments, formation of heavy chemical elements, etc.).

The extension of the notions about the fusion nature of stars and about the universality of the gravitation constant value beyond the SS led to conclusions on the occurrence of a dark matter and black holes not identified in the real Universe in spite of the intensive many-decade search with ground-based and space observing systems.

The PFO–CFO Theory proposes a principally new vision of the stellar nature. In 2010, we first proposed the following SS-formation history. No fusion reactions proceed within stars. Just the presolar star was the unique source of the SS; all isotopes of the SS appeared in the vicinities of the presolar star radiation zone (RZ), outside of it, from nonradioactive and radioactive pico-drops (p-ds) through structuring of the former and radioactive decays of the latter. The presolar star was almost identical to the Sun, and the presolar star history was identical to the solar past and future history.

Some of the fundamental assumptions of the PFO-CFO Theory are as follows: each star represents a closed system independent or almost independent of other stellar systems, no fusion reactions proceed within the stars, and atoms of all chemical isotopes originate as a result of radiation-chemical reactions by a unique mechanism outside stellar bodies on the basis of p-ds of their substance. Space represents eternal and endless oscillating mass/energy of a low potential, and stars result from resonance formation of knots in the mass/energy space and their subsequent gravitation self-pressing and decreasing in volume. The mechanism of the presolar star transformations, starting from the state when the star represents amorphous, neutral, unstructured substance, which transforms in time under gravitation, thermal ionization (TI), buoyancy force (BF), and neutronization, is described in our publications.

When the gravitation pressing in the stellar center becomes critical, the TI starts there, is accompanied with a positive charging of the stellar substance, and progresses in time along the radii. The electrons (ēs) float up under the BF, and a ē-enriched layer segregates the core from the radiation zone (RZ). After that, the core and RZ transform almost independently and their rotation speeds are unequal due to the ē-pillow between them. Steadily, gravitation pressing leads to RZ ionization and its positive charging that starts at the RZ bottom and progresses outward along the stellar radii. As a result of ē-pressure increasing, the direction of the process at the RZ bottom reverses, the ionization replaces by neutronization, and the n0/p0 ratio at the RZ bottom begins to increase in time. The neutronization of RZ accelerates its densification. Because of slowness of the neutronization process as compared with the core ionization, ē-gas pressure from time to time reaches a critical value, and series of protuberances overcome the RZ backpressure and emit the ē-gas outside together with the p-ds of the RZ bottom substance. The periodicity of the protuberance series varied from epoch to epoch; at present it is about eleven years. The p-ds transformed into atoms of isotopes. Depending on the n0/p0 ratio, the p-ds were nonradioactive or radioactive. The former gave atoms as a result of structuring; the latter did this after a series of radioactive decays. The radioactive decays warmed up the atoms and gave them an additional moment. Therefore, the farther flied the radioactive atoms away to the corona, the greater were their moments and the higher were their temperatures; increasing in the temperature and moment of the p-ds proceeded up to their transformation into stable atoms.

Note that analogous phenomena explain the high temperature of the solar corona; finally, just such atoms and the atoms of the destroyed presolar-star RZ formed the Solar System, and, thus, their histories explain also the great summarized planetary moment as compared with the solar one. The ē-inflow into the ē-enriched layer of the sun-like stars leads finally to the RZ explosive destruction.

We showed that such events proceed at (n0/p0) ≈ 1.5. They lead to the emission of a great amount of radioactive material from stars and to its radioactive decay in a rather large volume of the space with evolution of energy. In our opinion, just the phenomena of such a kind are usually interpreted as the supernova. 

Dear All,

Every day of the last solar events adds confirmations to the consequences from our PFO-CFO Theory of Solar System Formation.

(1) According to our general prediction, present time and future period should be characterized by an increase in the solar energy (Earth warming), faults in the 11-year solar cycles, and increasing in the frequency of untimely powerful protuberances.

(2) According to the conclusions from the PFO-CFO Theory, the solar radiation zone (RZ) is separated from the core by the electron-enriched layer, electron pressure in which increases with time as a result of ionization of the star interior and floating up of electrons, which are breaking through the RZ in the form of protuberances with a definite pause, which is determined by the RZ resistance in this epoch.

(3) The radiation zone (its depth portion) is condensed, and this its state explains some of the following points.

(4) RZ and core compress almost independently in time under gravitation and other effects.

(5) In the period preceding protuberances, weak electron jets leak everywhere through the RZ pores (hundreds of such jets were observed in the course of the last events) and protuberances emit as a result of pore merging under the effect of the inner pressure.  

(6) Some protuberances are initially directed in parallel with the solar visible surface and then sharply turn away from the Sun under the energetic effect of the radiation-chemical reactions proceeding according to the PFO-CFO Theory.

(7) As a result of radiation-chemical reactions within the protuberance jets, the jets’ temperature should critically increase in the direction: dark spots – photosphere – corona.

In the context of the PFO-CFO Theory, we performed a great volume of original calculations and explained the mechanism of formation of all chemical elements, explained past mass extinctions and predicted the possibility of arising the conditions unfavorable for life in future, and explained many other phenomena in the Solar System and out of it.

On the basis of all these works, we by no means think that there are grounds for panic expectations of critic solar phenomena, but it would be reasonable to plan long-term works aimed at solution of the fundamental problems about which I wrote in previous issues.  

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Victor_Ostrovskii/contributions

Dear All,

It was recently announced in the AIAA’s “Journal of Propulsion and Power” about an EmDrive engine, which as if consumes no energy and is capable of drawing. According to the thermodynamics, such engines are impossible; i.e., a fuel is necessary. On these days, the society was informed that an EmDrive pilot sample is designed and will be soon tested in Space. In the case of the successful testing of this pilot engine, I will think over, in what connection the EmDrive engine is with the notion of Space as the endless and eternal mass/energy of a low potential. The fact of the matter is that just such a notion is taken by us as the basis for the PFO-CFO Theory. This theory has been developed by us for about ten years, multiply published, presented at international conferences, and widely discussed at the ResearchGate site.  Evidently, if such an engine would be realized, this fact will undoubtedly validate the grounds of the PFO-CFO Theory in its cosmological section.

Dear Victor:

I want to ask you some questions:

1) I seem to understand that these events have a cycle of 11 years, that every five cycles there is one of greater magnitude, that the magnitude of the event Carrington is greater and that has not been repeated with that magnitude.

I wonder if there are any extrasolar conditioners for these cycles, such as alignment of SS planets, or any other type; regardless of the critical moments in the friction cycles of the solar core and mantle and whether the momentum of the solar storms and their magnitude can be predicted.

2) It seems that what most worries you is the increase of solar projections and global warming, however the project you propose seems disproportionate for a simple warm up. I have read very little of the effects of projections on biology, although mention is made of the increase in cardiac, cerebrovascular and psychiatric conditions in humans.

I wonder if there may be persistent effects that can affect biology, such as atmospheric ionization, or the only significant effect is thermal,

Finally, to express the philosophical conflict: Does human progress generate a degradation of the biosphere greater or less than the degree of interdependence with it? If greater: can this be called progress? 

Dear Guillermo,

I will try to answer to your questions, but I will do it without detailing, because answers to some of your questions require too extensive considerations.

The 11-year duration of the solar cycles is characteristic for our epoch; according to our theory, the cyclicity of solar activity is characteristic for different epochs, but the duration of the cycles changes from one epoch to another. At present, the solar activity (the frequency and power of protuberances, distribution and power of the magnetic field, the frequency of observable spots, and some other parameters) varies in the course of each cycle and the variations in the parameters repeat from one cycle to another.  

Each protuberance includes electrons, X-rays, photospheric substance, and, according to our theory, pico-drops of solar substance from the core/radiation-zone solar layer; therewith, pico-drops transform in time to radioactive atoms and, then, to stable atoms and, thus, evolve energy and accelerate the protuberance.

Sometimes, protuberances are so powerful that they destroy the Earth’s magnetic field and bombard the Earth by X-rays and radioactive and nonradioactive atoms.

Such protuberances are capable of affecting negatively almost all living species.

Our theory (refined calculations) describes and explains three situations when protuberances are so powerful that they are capable of damaging significantly the Earth’s living matter: (1) explosion of the radiation zone with subsequent transformation of a star; this would be a lethal situation for the Earth’s living matter (according to the PFO-CFO Theory, it will threaten to the Earth in 170-190 million years); (2) jets of long-lived radioactive isotopes of Bi, Tl, Hg, etc. (according to the theory, it will threaten to the Earth in 50-60 million years); (3) extraordinarily powerful protuberances containing radioactive isotopes of U and transuranium elements.

When writing about the coming danger, we bear in mind just the third situation. These protuberances can be comparable with the protuberance at the red dwarf DG CVn (2014), which was 10 000 times more power than the most powerful solar protuberance ever observed.  We wait that it will pass over the Earth as a belt and its effect will be similar to those which led to the extinctions of dinosaurs or mammoths and other species.

According to the theory, situation (3) will be much nearer in time, and we think and are sure that peoples should, not putting to the back burner, begin to prepare to it.

We see the only way of this preparation in creation of underground civilization, and it is very desirable to develop the industry of production of nutrition from minerals, passing over plants and animals. There are no grounds for a panic, and humanity has enough time, ability, and facilities to solve these fundamental tasks.

No associations of protuberances with extrasolar phenomena are revealed, and, apparently, no such associations exist.

As the phenomena preceding situation (3), we predict prolonged warming at the Earth, disturbances in the 11-year solar cycle (such as those observed in the last decades), and development of small jets of solar substance between phenomena of protuberances.

As for more exact predictions, they are today impossible, but it doesn’t mean that the beginning of the protective work should be postponed.

I advise very much to read our works on the PFO-CFO Theory; to understand the theory, it is by no means sufficient to read one-two works, it is necessary to read all works, because the theory was developed from one work to another, and, after that, it is desirable to read my answers to the question:

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Einsteins_relativity_what_is_eternal_questionable_and_erroneous_in_the_starting_points_of_the_theory_and_in_the_subsequent_conclusions_from_it

As for the influence of protuberances on the biology, this question is studied in detail. Generally, the more powerful is the protuberance, the stronger is its influence, up to the lethal one. Usual protuberance influence insignificantly or don’t influence at all. The thermal effect is most insignificant. The major effect is, apparently, from X-rays and radioactivity.

A great portion of researchers think that the increase in population and development of industry influence negatively the environment as a whole and living species in particular. 

Dear Ray Butler,

You write: “We need …more humans who are conservationists!” and refer to “Gardian”.

But not “Gardian” determines the development of the sciences of the natural phenomena. One of the main scientific principles is, on the contrary, “negation of negation”, i.e., “thesis-antithesis-synthesis”. Isn’t it? Just this way led sciences to their today state, and I don’t think that just your slogan will determine their way in future.

You write: “I do not know how radiation influences the evolutionary history of the biosphere.” For your information, radiation is capable of lethal influence the biosphere. The mechanism of the harmful effect of the solar radiation on the Earth is described by the addresses:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318115981_Species_mass_extinctions_and_forerunning_atmospheric_phenomena_explanation_of_the_past_and_prediction_of_the_future_in_the_context_of_the_PFO-CFO_Theory_of_Solar_System_Formation_and_Transformation   https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275831650_PFO-CFO_Hypothesis_of_Solar_System_formation_Solar_System_formation_and_past_and_future_evolution   

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263235534_PFO-CFO_Hypothesis_of_Solar_System_formation_its_actuality_and_physical_and_chemical_grounds

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258352019_PFO-CFO_Hypothesis_of_Solar_System_Formation_the_presolar_star_as_the_only_source_of_chemical_elements_for_the_Solar_System   

What is the scale of the solar protuberances, under the effect of which the Earth can appear in not far distant future, you are capable of reading by the address:    

https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/nasas-swift-mission-observes-mega-flares-from-a-mini-star  

You write: “Counterintuitively, the bigger impact to Earth's biology seems to be when solar magnetic activity substantially decreases.” But I didn’t write that the solar magnetic field is capable of hampering the Earth’s living matter; I wrote that the extremely powerful protuberances are capable of hampering the Earth’s living matter by their high energy, X-rays, radioactive isotopes, etc. Therefore, this your phrase and your subsequent reasoning have nothing to do with the subject under consideration.

As for our PFO-CFO Theory as such and our prognoses, I propose you to read our publications and to try to understand them, and after that I would be glad to read your commentaries.     

Conference Paper PFO–CFO Hypothesis of Solar System Formation: the presolar s...

Conference Paper PFO–CFO Hypothesis of Solar System formation: its actuality ...

Conference Paper PFO–CFO Hypothesis of Solar System formation: Solar System f...

Conference Paper Species mass extinctions and forerunning atmospheric phenome...

Dear All,

English text version is below; to read it, press the cross at the left.

Я считаю своевременным систематизировать предсказания, которые следуют из PFO-CFO Theory. Согласно Теории, взрывные события на Солнце, в результате которых условия на Земле изменятся настолько, что все или почти все виды живой материи погибнут, т.е. наступит так-называемый «конец света», произойдут лишь через 150 млн. лет; период, который начнется через примерно 60 млн. лет и будет продолжаться около 90 млн. лет, будет чрезвычайно неблагоприятен для существования живой материи на Земле, т.к. время от времени Солнце будет эмитировать мощные протуберанцы, содержащие долгоживущие радиоактивные изотопы Po, At, Rn, U и заурановых элементов. Все эти события не должны волновать сегодняшних обитателей Земли.

Но Теория также предсказывает, что до этих периодов Солнце время от времени будет эмитировать протуберанцы более мощные, чем протуберанцы, эмитированные 6-10 сентября 2017 года и сравнимые по мощности с протуберанцами красного карлика DG CVn, эмитированными им 23 апреля 2014 года. Особенностью будущих солнечных протуберанцев будет содержание в них изотопов Pb, Tl, Hg и их предшественников - высокорадиоактивных долгоживущих изотопов Pb, Bi, Po, Tl, Hg. Многие из этих изотопов опасны не только вследствие их радиоактивности, но также вследствие их ядовитости.

Согласно Теории, такие протуберанцы возможны во вполне обозримом будущем. Этот вывод подтверждается необычными и вызывающими опасения нарушениями периодичности солнечной активности, происходящими на фоне увеличения частоты массовых вымираний видов на Земле со временем в течение последних 30 млн. лет. Если в отдаленном прошлом массовые вымирания на Земле происходили через десятки миллионов лет, то после вымирания, случившегося около 34 млн. лет назад, последующие вымирания, по некоторым данным, происходили 14.5, 2, 0.64, 0.074 и 0.013 млн. лет назад, т.е. гораздо чаще, чем в прошлом. Возможно, какие-то из них были инициированы не явлениями на Солнце, но, по нашему мнению, именно протуберанцы были их превалирующей причиной. Почти все мамонты и многие другие виды животных и растений вымерли 13 тыс. лет назад. Возможный вредный эффект протуберанцев, скорее всего, как и в прошлом, не будет глобальным. Обычно вымирания проходили полосой по земной поверхности. Однако ширина полосы и ее длина могут быть различны и непредсказуемы. Конечно, не все солнечные протуберанцы направлены в сторону Земли, и Провидение уже не раз спасало Землю от серьезных неприятностей. Но, по-видимому, опасности возрастают со временем, и вряд ли их можно игнорировать. По нашему мнению, пики вредного эффекта каждого из тех протуберанцев, которые можно ожидать в течение ближайшего исторического периода, скорее всего, не будут очень продолжительными, ограничатся лишь несколькими годами и их можно преодолеть, если своевременно начать разрабатывать меры, о которых мы писали ранее.

Но верна ли наша космологическая теория? Я не исключаю, что она ошибочна. Мы не первые, кто пытался понять организацию мира и мы, возможно, окажемся не первыми, кто ошибся в своих догадках. Но я, пожалуй, верю, что наша теория верна в ее принципиальных пониманиях мира, если идея, которая лежит в основе уравнения E=mc2 , верна и если дефект массы существует. Никто не указал на ошибки в нашей логике. Сегодня я не знаю принципиальных реальных явлений, которые были бы необъяснимы на основе нашей теории. Из тех явлений, которые имеют отношение к Солнечной Системе и имеют значение для землян, мы первыми реалистично объяснили различия изотопных составов газа в пространстве Солнечной Системы и в небесных объектах, пути образования всех химических элементов, цикличность солнечной активности и различный характер протуберансов, массовые вымирания, постепенность увеличения температуры от солнечных пятен до короны, и т.д.; мы дали новые объяснения многим другим явлениям, включая образование и трансформацию Солнечной Системы и других звездных систем и т.д., и при этом мы отказались от таких сомнительных фантастических явлений, не найденных в течение более чем полстолетия, как так называемые темная материя, темная энергия, черные дыры и все, связанное с ними.

И сегодня мы предупреждаем о не очень отдаленной во времени возможной опасности, грозящей всему живому от Солнца, но, ни в коем случае, о конце света.

Dear All,

I consider timely to systematize the forecasts that follow from the PFO-CFO Theory.

According to the Theory, the explosive events on the Sun, as a result of which the terrestrial conditions will vary so significantly that all or almost all species will die out, i.e., the so-called end of the world will set in, will occur in 150 My. The period that will begin in about 60 My and will continue about 90 My, will extremely inauspicious for the existence of any living matter on the Earth, because the Sun will from time to time emit powerful flares with the long-lived radioactive isotopes Po, At, Rn, U, and trans-uranium elements included. These events shouldn’t disturb of the up-to-date earthmen.

However, the Theory also predicts that, before these periods, the Sun will emit from time to time the protuberances more powerful than those emitted in September 6-10, 2017 and comparable by their power with those emitted by red dwarf DG CVn in April 23, 2014. The expected protuberances will contain, in contrast to those emitted earlier, Pb, Tl, Hg isotopes and their precursors, such as the highly radioactive, long-living Pb, Bi, Po, Tl, and Hg isotopes. Many of these isotopes are harmful not only as a result of their radioactivity, but also as a result of their high toxicity.

According to the theory, such protuberances are possible in a quite foreseeable future. This conclusion is confirmed by the alarming disturbances in the cyclicity of the solar activity, which proceed against the background of the unusually frequent mass extinctions in the last 30 My. While mass extinctions occurred in the remote past with intervals of tens millions of years, the extinctions in the last 34 My occurred, according to some data, in the periods of 14.5, 2.0, 0.64, 0.074, and 0.013 Mya, i.e., were much more frequent than it was earlier. It cannot be excluded that some of these mass extinctions were initiated by some Earth phenomena, but, in our opinion, just the protuberances were their predominant cause. It was stated that almost all mammoths and many other animal and plant species died out about 13 000 years ago.

In all likelihood, the possible harmful protuberance’s effect, as in the past, will be not global. Usually, the mass extinctions covered a belt over the Earth surface. However, the width of the belt and its length are unpredictable. Of course, not all protuberances are directed to the Earth, and the Providence, chance saved the Earth off and on from serious harms. However, apparently, the dangers increase with the lapse of time and they scarcely may be ignored. In our opinion, the peak of a harmful effect of each of those protuberances, which can be expected in the course of a nearest historical period, will be, most likely, not very prolonged, will limited in time by several years, and it could be overcoming, if the nontrivial measures, about what we wrote earlier, are promptly started to develop.

Is our cosmological theory correct or not? It is not ruled out that it is mistaken. We might be not the first who tried to understand the organization of the world and who was mistaken. But I believe that, most likely, our theory is correct in its principal understandings of the world if the idea that lies in the ground of the E=mc2 is correct and if the mass defect exists. Nobody showed a mistake in our logic. Today, I know no principal actual phenomenon which is inexplicable for our theory. From those phenomena, which relate to the Solar System and have the importance for the earthmen, we are the first to explain realistically the different isotopic compositions of the space gas in different regions of the Solar System and in different celestial bodies, the ways of formation of all chemical elements, the cyclicity in the Solar activity and different character of the protuberances, the mass extinctions, the gradual increasing in the temperature from the solar spots to the corona, etc.; we give new explanations for many other phenomena, including formation and transformation of the Solar System and other stellar systems, etc., and, therewith, we abandon such questionable fantastic phenomena not found for more than one half of the century as the so-called dark matter, dark energy, black holes and all connected with them.

And today we notify by no means of the end of the world, but of a not very distant in time possible danger that comes from the Sun and threatens to all living on the Earth.

Dear All,

Some researchers ask us, on what grounds the red verticals are lined in the hump-shaped curves in slides 21, 22, 24, and 27 in our presentation by the address

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320254816_Mass_extinctions_of_species_causes_of_Phanerozoic_extinctions_and_possibilities_of_recurrence_of_such_phenomena_in_future .

Indeed, this important question has no answer in the presentation. The fact is that, according to the W. Alvares (a Nobel Prize Winner) data confirmed multiply by other researchers, the enhanced Ir concentrations (that exceeds its usual values in the Earth ground by a factor of 100 and more) were observed in the ground layers formed in the periods about 66 Mya and about 34 Mya, i.e., the time period between these two events is equal to 32 My (somewhat enhanced Ir concentrations were also observed in the intermediate layers). Meanwhile, according to our calculations, Ir was emitted by the Sun in the form of 77-Ir-191(twice, black points) and 77-Ir-193 (twice, red points) (see slide 27). We took that the distance between the left black point and right red point corresponds to 32 My and lined the red vertical at the distance that is longer than that between the left black point and right red point by a factor of (34/32).

По-русски and in English

We have predicted becoming of the conditions capable of initiating the next period of mass extinction at the Earth as a result of the action of a powerful solar protuberance [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320254816_Mass_extinctions_of_species_causes_of_Phanerozoic_extinctions_and_possibilities_of_recurrence_of_such_phenomena_in_future ; https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320187190_Massovye_vymirania_vidov_priciny_Fanerozojnyh_vymiranij_i_vozmoznost_povtorenia_podobnyh_avlenij_v_budusem_Plenarnaa_lekcia ]. Apparently, people shouldn’t wait until the realization of this prediction in practice. Natural phenomena that occurred multiply in the past and become more frequent with the lapse of time will occur inevitably in future, because no principal changes in the nature had occurred. In our opinion, the development of an activity aimed at creation of underground civilization and at development of technologies for the food industrial production on the basis of minerals shouldn’t be put off; it would be timely to begin bit by bit to build “groundscrapers” rather than skyscrapers and also underground factories, means of communications, storehouses, etc. and to develop the ways of food production on the basis of saturated hydrocarbons, nitrates, and phosphates. It is quite possible that such activity will be useful not only in the case of harmful solar protuberances. The maximum Earth’s surface area should be saved until somebody gets hit with hard times. I am ready to substantiate the actuality of the predicted phenomena in much more detail than it was made by us earlier. The Hawking’s idea of the mass settlement of the Mars or any other celestial body is, in our opinion, scarcely realizable. This doesn’t mean that Martian mineral resources should not be used if their mining and delivery is economically profitable and practically reasonable.

Мы предсказали возникновение условий, способных инициировать очередное массовое вымирание на Земле в результате мощного солнечного протуберанца [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320254816_Mass_extinctions_of_species_causes_of_Phanerozoic_extinctions_and_possibilities_of_recurrence_of_such_phenomena_in_future ; https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320187190_Massovye_vymirania_vidov_priciny_Fanerozojnyh_vymiranij_i_vozmoznost_povtorenia_podobnyh_avlenij_v_budusem_Plenarnaa_lekcia ]. По-видимому, не следует дожидаться выполнения этого предсказания. Природные явления, которые многократно случались в прошлом, и учащающиеся во времени, неизбежно будут происходить и в будущем, поскольку никаких принципиальных изменений в природе не произошло. По нашему мнению, надо начинать действовать в направлении создания подземной цивилизации и разработки технологий получения пищевых продуктов из минералов; постепенно надо строить землескребы вместо небоскребов, подземные заводы и средства сообщения, склады и т.д. и разрабатывать способы синтеза пищевых продуктов на основе предельных углеводородов, нитратов и фосфатов. Вполне возможно, что такие разработки окажутся полезными не только в случае губительных солнечных протуберанцев. Максимальная площадь земной поверхности должна быть сохранена, пока жареный петух не клюнул. По нашему мнению, идея Хаукинга о массовом заселении Марса или какого-либо другого небесного тела вряд ли реализуема. Но это не означает, что не следует использовать марсианское минеральное сырье, если это экономически выгодно и практически целесообразно.