the input data if between 2006 and 2020, and the number of years I choosed is 100 years. So the generated data gives 100 years values from year 1 to year 100 without mentionning any dates.
Dear Sara,
When you want to foresee future parameters (Max and Min Temperature and precipitation) under different scenarios in a period like 2041-2060, you should enter "20" years in the "num.years" box.
But if you choose "100" years for your period, LARS-WG generates 100 years in the period. finally, we convert the daily data to monthly because of the high uncertainty of daily data.
I hope you find it helpful.
Regards
Thank you for your kind reply. Actually, I got this answer below:
100 years of generated weather represent your period 2006-2020. For example, year 57 is a year of daily weather sampled from the period 2006-2020.
This answer is what made me confused, cause what I thought is, if I choose the period 2041-2060 then the program should calculate the number of years itself. Otherwise, it might not be as simple as this.
Hi dear Sara Guemar,
The first and most important thing is that lars works as a stochastic tool. Therefore, it is important that you understand how the LARS works.
Firstly, I want to emphasize a key point. You mentioned that you chose 2006-2010 as your baseline. If you are going to publish your research as a scientific article, you should choose the standard period of 1980-2010. Lars is calibrated for the period.
Secondly, you asked what is the start of the period selected for 100 years? After choosing a GCM model and scenario, you must select a period. When the selected period is, for example, 2041-2060, it is not important whether you choose 100 years or 10 years; the model will generate data for that period. My description of it is as follows.
As I told you lars is a stochastic weather generator. It means the output of Lars is not a time series. This means that the numbers for 2042 are not after 2041. Thus, averages (or std) of series can only be used for analysis. LARS is not a prediction tool, but a projection tool.
You can test this out for yourself. For the period 2041-2060, generate data once for 20 years and once for 100 years. Then compare the average of the temperature and precipitation for the two series. You will see that the means are very close to a very good approximation.
Finally, you should know that you are allowed to analyze the results on a monthly basis since Lars does not support daily changes unless you manually create scenarios based on daily GCMs.
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