What are the key determinants of the future magnitude of marine and terrestrial carbon sinks and atmospheric change affect primary production of terrestrial ecosystems?
The future magnitude of marine and terrestrial carbon sinks is determined by a combination of factors, including the rate of atmospheric CO2 concentration increases, temperature changes, and human activities. In marine environments, the capacity of the oceans to absorb CO2 is influenced by the solubility of CO2 in seawater, which decreases as temperatures rise, and by biological processes such as phytoplankton photosynthesis and the biological pump, which transports carbon to the deep ocean. Ocean acidification, resulting from higher CO2 levels, can also impact the effectiveness of these biological processes. In terrestrial ecosystems, the capacity of forests, grasslands, and soils to sequester carbon is influenced by plant growth rates, which are affected by temperature, precipitation, nutrient availability, and CO2 fertilization effects. Land-use changes, such as deforestation and reforestation, also play a critical role in determining carbon sink capacity.
Atmospheric changes, particularly increases in CO2 concentrations and temperatures, significantly affect the primary production of terrestrial ecosystems. Higher CO2 levels can enhance photosynthesis and plant growth, a phenomenon known as CO2 fertilization. However, this effect is modulated by the availability of essential nutrients like nitrogen and phosphorus. Temperature increases can have mixed effects: moderate warming might enhance growth in some regions by extending growing seasons, while excessive heat can stress plants, reduce productivity, and increase respiration rates, leading to net carbon losses. Changes in precipitation patterns, including increased frequency of droughts and extreme weather events, can further complicate these dynamics by affecting water availability, soil moisture, and plant health. Overall, the interaction between CO2 levels, temperature, nutrient availability, and water stress will dictate the net primary production and carbon sequestration potential of terrestrial ecosystems in the future.