I have found that during spring there occurred a Chlorophyceae bloom followed by Cyanobacterial bloom, but the maximum toxin levels fall between those two peaks i.e. before Cyanophyceae bloom.
I have attached a graphic representation of sequence of events similar to that I have found. Its just to make more clear and hoping to get some discussion out of it.
First, the graphical presentation is not readable.
Your findings are unusual, as almost all the time cyanotoxins get its way into the water with the decay of a bloom and cell lysis in cyanobacteria. However there may be exceptions. May I know
1) what is the toxic compound you are looking into?
2) duration of this study, and,
3) frequency and time (i.e. day/night) of sampling.
Is this sestonic microcystin concentration? It is a strange pattern indeed.
MC concentrations often do not correlate well with cyanobacteria biomass indicator (eg BV or cell counts) as a result of the presence of toxin producing and non-producing species, and the fact that within the same species both toxigenic and non-toxigenic strains coexist. A possible explanation to your data is the presence of a minor (non-dominant) toxigenic species prior the the cyano bloom, which dissappears when the bloom (apparently a non-toxic one) takes place. What are the absolute MC concentratations? How did you quantify MCs?
It is absolutely correct that lysis make these toxins release into water. These samples were analysed for microcystin only and the duration of study was one year though we are sampling this year also to see that does it follow same or not. Samples were taken on weekly basis from May through October and in day time.
Actually we did sampled for one more year and may be this year as well. It is a part of developing some prediction of cyanotoxic blooms in the local reservoirs and so we are quanitifying it by ELISA and also monitor physico-chemical conditions of this and other five reservoirs including nutrients, vertical profiling and physical parameters. These lakes are having Anbaena sp. dominance and so may be we should quantify anatoxin as well.