Is there any relation between the shape of the elliptical earth and the prediction of the epicenter of earthquakes?
There are many causes of earthquakes. Tectonics plates and geodynamic conditions control the earthquake occurrence in active regions. Thus monitoring the subsurface conditions clearly help us to predict an earthquake epicenter. It is well known that the energy explodes in weak regions, fractured area or the most easiest break up part of earth.
Dear Raed,
Epicenters and more generaly locations of earthquakes are computed under a variety of conditions assuming velocity models that can be more or less complicated starting from half-space and horizontal layers that neglect the whole question of the the shape of the earth. In all these calculations and given the variety of possible error sources, effects of the "earth's shape" are negligible, a shape which is always an approximation, a mathematical figure approximating the geoid which itself is an approximation of the true shape of the planet. By the way predicting an epicenters is not an urgent issue in seismology. predicting the earthquake occurrence with a reasonable accuracy within several kms to tens of kms if it happened is OK, there will remain the problem of predicting the occurrence time, several days to weeks accuracy is also Ok, and also the magnitude +/- 1 degree is excellent ! predicting all that is unfortunately rather far from being achieved with any accuracy or regularity even if we know and successfully use an acceptably true geodetic shape of the earth.
It will be more related to areas of failure and collision of the plates, than by the shape of the Earth.
Dear all,
Do the next thoughts connect to the question:
‘In the last two weeks, I have made 8 successful earthquakes' forecasting (Region and interval the time) from 8 tries... It can do it better.) You can verify them at the question of Ilie Sandu:...
https://www.researchgate.net/post/How_do_You_see_the_Earthquakes-Prediction_Forecast_or_Random_events#view=5da8358a4921ee07c92a4051 To do the method improvement I do not have scientifical and existential support!...’
Regards,
Laszlo
The earthquake happens where a lot of energy is stored. For example, when you stretch an elastic band it gets hot, because you are stretching it. The epicentre area too gets heated, because it gets stressed from movement which we can't sense on surface. Such stored energy at depth can be detected by some form of energy monitor (which I don't know about yet, but someone can find out).
Dear Dr. Ahmed,
Sure , logically there should be a relation between Earth's flattening and earthquake belts distribution on its crust.
Indirectly, flattening control some how the planet rotation around its axis . Therefore, rotation according to coreolis effect control magma currents in the outer core and lower mantle. Magma currents controles effects on the floating asthenospher and lithospher layers and the attached oceanic and continental crust above . Magma currents for sure is the main reason behind plate tectonics which produce the convergent, divergent and transform plate boundaries. Such biundaries are responsible of producing earthquakes.
Hope this answer would help.
Best Regards
Wadhah
Earthquake or what I sometimes call geo-quake builds up becuse of stored energy that is lurking within the subsurface. The position of the epicenter, earth's surface above the focus of an earthquake where this energy lurks does not depend on the shape of the earth nether can the shape of the earth be used to predict, but it relates to the mobile plates, which create disequillibrium above, below and around the position of the lurking energy. The resuling disequilibrium causes the sudden release of energy, which is disastrous whenever it occurs. Its prediction can be achieved by assessing the seismogenic activities few hours before and few hours after the earthquake/geo-quake.
No. I do not think the shape of the earth play any role in the prediction of the epicenter of earthquakes. Rather the composition and structure of the earth affect the estimation of the epicenter. Composition and structure of the rocks around the earthquake focus (hypocenter) affects the energy and velocity of the wave emanating from earhquake rupture and thus the estimation of the epicenter.
What is an earthquake epicenter? Epicentre of an earthquake is a point on the earth surface that is directly above the Focus (the point where earthquake originates-). Earthquales are common in some parts of the world (around the plate margins) than in others places because due to movement of the plates and possibility for break-ups, and the fact that the earth is thinner along the plate margins.
In summary: There is no known relationship between the shape of the earth and the location of the epicenter at this time.
Please see the attached video (one of my teaching aids) to learn one of ways to determine earthquake focus and epicenter.
Thank you.
Dear Raji,
Thank you so much for your simple answer. I guess you missunderstood my question.
Regards