Prediction is more precise, often involving quantifiable outcome. A forecast is more likely to be a scenario. For example based on predictions of temperature and pressure levels, climatologists arrive at the forecast of weather, which is a set of prevailing parameters (including but not limited to: temperature, pressure) giving a classification of weather such as cloudy, rainy, stormy, sunny.

Based on a Google Trends search, in the tropics, the word "predict" is often used. Whereas in the temperate zones, the word "forecast" is preferred. It would seem that in an environment of relative stability (in this case, temperature variations in the tropical vs. temperate zones), "predictions" is preferred over "forecasts". So it may be valid to conclude...

"... that forecast involve a probability statement while a prediction is plane hunches of future events based on present circumstances."

I feel that forecasting is more precise than prediction for weather

Dear Abhilash Singh Chauhan,

Forecast is scientific and free from intuition and personal bias, whereas prediction is subjective and fatalistic in nature. Forecasting is an extrapolation of past into the future while prediction is judgmental and takes into account changes taking place in the future.

I hope the information will help you.

With Best Wishes,

Samir G. Pandya

This is indeed an interesting question. In order to provide an accurate answer, we should begin with the separation of weather and climate system. I think it's better to say: “What is the difference between "Weather prediction" & "Weather forecast" in meteorology?”

According to Merriam Webster, these two word were indeed synonyms. However, in the last twenty years the situation has changed. The words prediction and forecasting are not exactly synonymous with the former indicating some degree of quantification. For this reason, we say Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) when describing the forecast produced with a model based on mathematical equations and Weather Forecast when referring to the prediction obtained by the various means including the statistical methods.

The situation is different in the context of climatology, where we say climate simulation instead of climate prediction or or climate forecasting. For example please consult Gilchrist: Numerical weather prediction and climate simulation

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0034-4885/51/9/002/pdf

The term weather refers to the state of the atmosphere somewhere within a short period of time. The climate is a summary of the weather of any place for a period of time that may extend to a month or a quarter of the seasons and its distribution system throughout the year.

Weather prediction is to make a prediction in advance. Weather forecast refers to presuming and reporting weather based on observation data in advance.

Weather prediction indicates that it is likely to be particularly likely to hit, while analogizing to other cases. Weather prediction is that all people can participate. It also indicates that the weather prediction may deviate and that it has not escaped from personal level thinking.

Weather forecast can be expressed by calculating the probability by observation data together with the subjective prediction of the individual. Therefore, the purpose of forecasting is to inform the general public of the need for umbrellas and overnight stays. There is also a possibility of deviation, but it is possible to be mindful because it is only probability.

Good question! Following

"Weather prediction" is mainly based on the prediction of weather phenomena based on accumulated large data sets describing the current trends of weather phenomena, accumulated large data sets in Big Data database systems and studied using modern computerized analytical and probabilistic instruments, statistical models, etc. The concept of " Weather prediction "can therefore be used for long-term prediction of weather processes in correlation with long-term analysis of climate change, including the global warming process. On the other hand, the term "Weather forecast" is used more often to refer to short-term weather forecasts, e.g. for the next days for a specific place or climate zone.

Best wishes

Weather forecasting is a conjecture of the weather. Weather forecasting is based on an integrated scientific logic and is an inevitable rather than speculative result.

The Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is based on the fundamental progress in physics created upon the field theories. The origin of the scientifically based forecasting can be traced back to a seminal paper published by Vilhelm Bjerknes who proposed to forecast the weather using a quantitative method. Following the standard practice defined by Cauchy and Kovalevskaya, he formulated the initial boundary value problem for the set of equations describing the rotating, stratified fluid. The original wording used in Bjerknes (1904) was deceptively simple:

“If, as every scientifically inclined individual believes, atmospheric conditions develop according to natural laws from their precursors, it follows that the necessary and sufficient conditions for a rational solution of the problems of meteorological prediction are the following: 1: The condition of the atmosphere must be known at a specific time with sufficient accuracy, 2: The laws must be known, with sufficient accuracy, which determine the development of one weather condition from another”

Although the concept was natural for his peers in physics, the meteorological community in the early 1900s, was reluctant to embrace the fluid equations as a serious predictive tool because the closed form of a solution was unattainable. This opinion changed after Richardson had published a seminal book on predicting the weather by a numerical process (Richardson, 1922)

His visionary contribution contained a modern formulation of the primitive meteorological equations as well as numerical algorithms required to obtain an approximate solutions to the aforementioned equations. This work paved the road leading ultimately to the predictions based on Primitive Meteorological Equations (PME) that materialized four decades later, in the mid-1960s (see Lynch (2006), Pudykiewicz & Brunet (2008) for review of the milestones of numerical weather prediction).

Today the techniques of modelling of natural systems based on a solution of conservation laws have become a crucial element of routine activities in most of the environmental prediction centres around the world.

References

Bjerknes V. (1904): Das Problem der Wettervorhersage, betrachtet vom Standpunkte der Mechanik und der Physik (The problem of weather prediction, considered from the viewpoints of mechanics and physics). – Meteorol. Z. 21, 1–7. (translated and edited by VOLKEN E. and S. BRONNIMANN. – Meteorol. Z. 18 (2009), 663–667).

Lynch, P. (2006): Richardson’s Dream-The Emergence of Scientific Weather Forecasting, Cambridge University Press, pp 290.

Pudykiewicz, J., and Brunet, G. (2008), The first hundred years of numerical weather prediction. Cambridge University Press, doi:10.1017/CB09780511535963.020, 427-446.

Richardson, L. F. (1922): Weather Prediction by Numerical Process, Cambridge University Press, xii+236 pp, Reprinted by Dover Publications, New York, 1965, with a New Introduction by Sydney Chapman, xvi+236 pp.