Give overview about each methods used in weather forecast such as Climatological, Persistence and Numerical Weather Prediction and then compare or give an overview about each method limits.
It can be considered that there are three objective approaches in weather forecast: persistent method, different statistical methods and numerical weather predictions. The numerical method has been dominated since the 1950s when it emerged, as it has achieved significant progress in weather forecasting quality, while the first two methods are very difficult to achieve progress.
The deterministic predictability of the atmosphere is limited to about 12 days (Thompson 1957; Lorenz 1969a, 1969b, 1973 - References in link below). This is practically demonstrated in the work Gavrilov, Jovanovic and Janjic (2011).
See link:https://www.researchgate.net/publication/252181604_Sensitivity_of_a_long-range_numerical_weather_forecast_model_to_small_changes_of_model_parameters
Regards,
Milivoj B. Gavrilov
Article Sensitivity of a long-range numerical weather forecast model...
Dear Mohamed! Of course, you understand well that any changes in the weather in one part of the Earth are reflected in the weather shifts in the rest of the Earth. Therefore, a complex system of analyzing such changes is needed to predict the result. Especially since the reasons for the shifts in weather conditions are a huge variety (the ocean, volcanoes, the position of the sun and the moon, human activity ...).