Here is a good 2010 paper for services forecasting
http://www.mega-project.eu/assets/exp/resources/2012_PMJ_Turner_Zolin_final_3.pdf
Here is another for product success
http://web.nchu.edu.tw/pweb/users/arborfish/lesson/8753.pdf
Experimental designs based on discrete choice modelling and aimed to estimate consumer's WTP for alternative products/services are frequently used. These are developments of conjoint analysis.
There are very few new new products. Instead, most new products are much like other competitive products, so comparing is relatively straightforward--look at how comparable products have performed. You can also do this on a consumer basis by looking at how consumers have reacted to comparable products. Here the metrics might be things like category and brand penetration, period-to-period repeat buying rates, purchase frequency and so on. Fortunately, these are metrics that are routinely tracked by commercial market research companies.
Hi Szabolscs,
it is very difficult to predict success of product/services on the market. All colleagues who previous sent their suggestions were right.
From my experience, in telecom market, the best solution is pushing one part of services or products and measure its success on targeted market (customers base). Let's say if we want to launch new tariffs the best way coul be launching low cost tariff on the market which is created for low cost customers. When you analyze its success and customer's comments, you will find what you can (must) adjust and creat better tariffs for all other customer segments and at the same time you can add tariff options for low cots tariff that you have launched as pilot tariff model.
I don't know what type of product/services you plan to launch but I suggest you to think about launching testing model of service/product - you will have answers from the market and you will not spend a lot of money. When you adjust your product/service to the market you can launch whole package of produsct/services.
Of course, it is very useful to do market research but be careful when you choose agency which should make market research. If you choose bad agency you can make worse mistakes than you didn't engage any agency.
Best regards.
Igor
Recommend you to concentrate on target customers' decision process when you use SWOT to predict the future success of products/services in a given market. Suitable Products with suitable marketing tools in each step of process will help you succeed.
marketing intelligence and market scan and audit are the best approaches to analyze the market
we can consider many issues in market analysis such as
Market geography
Market size
Market density
Market behavior
when customers buy
where customers buy
how customers buy
who buys
Hi,
Nowadays, most important factor taken in consideration to analyse markets in order to promote brand image of the company is "CUSTOMER ORIENTATION". These are my recommandations as following :
1- Lead user analyses for the development of new industrial products
GL Urban, E Von Hippel - Management science, 1988
2- Corporate culture, customer orientation, and innovativeness in Japanese firms: a quadrad analysis.
R Deshpandé, JU Farley, FE Webster Jr - The journal of Marketing, 1993
3- An exploratory analysis of the impact of market orientation on new product performance
K Atuahene‐Gima - Journal of product innovation management, 1995
A market test. This is introducing the product in a small market that reproduces consumer behavior in all the country or area. Similar as Caucus in USA the use the results of a given community (can't remember now) because they are very similar to the whole country composition results
It will depend on the type of product/service offered and the characteristics of the market as well.
It can depend also on the wind or the weather. Are you stupid?, what kind of answer is yours?
Dear @jordi I think you got me wrong I am asking about the specific type or nature of the product or service for which analysis needs to be done. I don't think there is any stupidity in asking about it or is it....
The market research text books suggest that a test market is the best way to predict the success of a new product/service. One can alternatively survey a random sample of consumers in the given market and present them with a description of the product and ask how likely they would be to buy it if it were offered. Then, adjust the % who say "definitely would buy" down to account for overestimation.
Lean approach. Consider building a minimum viable product and put it to the test of few consumers that are paying for this service or product. Then measure response. Put the learnings into the product/ service v 2.0 and either continue, stop or pivot.
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