What kind of scientific research dominate in the field of Futurology, forecasting, future, technologies of the future?
Please reply. I invite you to the discussion
Which of the science fiction movies, according to you, turned out to be the most prophetic futurological?
The science fiction genre is one of the most important genres in film art. Thanks to science fiction movies, many interesting futurological visions, many new inventions, etc. were created.
Many films from the science fiction genre were created in the film art, in which many prophetic visions and futurological projections appeared. For example, in the film "Return to the Future" directed by Robert Zemeckis appeared many futuristic products, some of which are currently in operation. Apparently, some inventions arose thanks to this film, especially the second part of this trilogy. The Hendo company from California launched in 2015 the first levitating magnetic skateboard. Apparently, Nike is working on creating shoes that will be automatically laced at the touch of a button that works similar to those that Marty McFly had in the second part of the trilogy. At the McFly house in 2015, we have a rich futuristic gallery and mostly hit ideas. Family members wear goggles with colorful LEDs at home, whose idea vividly resembles Google Glass or Oculus Rift. When the videophone speaks at the McFly, information about who the addressee of the call is displayed in the goggles. The interlocutor, the head of Marthy named Needles, appears on a completely flat screen TV and announces with satisfaction that McFly throws him out of work. Could the scriptwriters have predicted Skype? What's more, during the conversation next to the Needles likeness, information about his age, family, interests and preferences is displayed. That is the prediction of social media. A flat McFly TV moment later reveals yet another futuristic feature: multifunctionality. This happens when Marthy calls (voice!) Various TV channel proposals. The iconic time machine created by Dr. Emmett Brown is a converted DeLorean DMC-12. In the film, it is an electric car that uses 1,21 gigawatts of energy to travel in time to use a nuclear reactor. However, when this fails, a genius scientist replaces him with an "eco-fuel" of waste. We see Dr. Brown charging garbage in the tank, including fruit skins and pouring leftovers of beer from the can. This can be successfully compared to biomass fuels used today, among which the most popular is biodiesel, most often obtained from rapeseed oil. Other futuristic inventions that appeared in "Return to the Future 2" are thought-minded games, a camera with face recognition, 3D holographic street advertising videos, a camera drone, fingerprint identification, biometrics based payments, an alpha sleep rhythm generator , weather forecasting, rejuvenating treatments (Dr. Brown lengthened his life by 30-40 years, unprinting paper.) However, not all these inventions, gadgets or energy sources were created in the form as shown in this video. Cars fly but not on magnetic cushions like in this film only as drones or as autoloty, i.e. a car-to-plane intersection created by the American company Terrafugia in 2014 and another version by the Slovak company Aeromobil. On the other hand, not everything is provided in the picture from this movie. such dynamic development of the Internet, personal computers and smartphones events in that country are transmitted via fax and video calls.
But maybe in another science fiction movie that was created in the past better futuristic visions of the development of technology, technology, science, etc., which has happened to the present?
Or maybe there are such science fiction companies in the cinematography that have recently been created in recent years and present futuristic visions of the development of technology, science, etc., which is to be developed over several decades and presented in a very professional and full scientific knowledge, what could be considered a prophetic, futuristic vision of the future?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion
How would you design energy if you had unlimited financial resources?
How would you design a similar or different futurological energy and civilization project, containing renewable energy sources of renewable energy and recreation of natural conditions, referring to natural ecosystems, which after years would gain the possibility of self-recreating?
For example, whether with unlimited investment funds or whether it would be possible to achieve a sustainable economic ecosystem from scratch to achieve economic efficiency at least at the zero growth level as follows: Can a large solar power plant be developed in the desert and water obtained from energy to develop agricultural production and plant ecosystems, including forest ecosystems, which, after several dozen years, could almost function themselves? An important factor would be the possible progressive climate change in a given area and the geographical scope of the area covered by this investment project.
In some science fiction movies there are scenes that suggest that it is possible, economically justified and real. However, the vision presented in science-fiction movies to create real projects can, however, be a very big difference. But many futurological visions that were created in the past have been implemented, so it is justified to undertake such attempts to create further futurological projects.
In connection with the above, I would like to ask you the following question: How would you design energy if you had unlimited financial resources? How would you design a similar or different futurological energy and civilization project, containing renewable energy sources of renewable energy and recreation of natural conditions, referring to natural ecosystems, which after years would gain the possibility of self-recreating?
Please reply. I invite you to the discussion
How will the eating habits of people change until 2050 so that you can feed 10 billion people?
Demographers estimate that by 2050, the number of people on Earth will reach 10 billion. With such a number of people, the agricultural economy, logistics of food supplies and people's eating habits will have to change. It is likely that economics will force these processes, which will result in the transition of the majority of humanity to nutrition mainly based on vegetable and vegetarian diets. Meat production is many times more expensive than the production of cereals, fruits and vegetables. In addition, according to scientific research and the theory of futurologists, the production of traditional meat, e.g. pork and beef, may be replaced by the production of protein from insect breeding. Research shows that there are more proteins in the bodies of insects than in traditional meat dishes. In addition, the logistics of food supplies, agri-food products will have to improve. Systems for matching agricultural and reptile production to the current needs of the industry and the nutritional needs of people will be improved so as to reduce the scale of food wastage. The biggest threat to the implementation of this plan may be unexpected atmospheric phenomena, natural disasters, droughts, hurricanes, tropical heat in the areas in which agricultural crops have been cultivated so far. In addition, industrial exploitation of arable land and climate change causes soil depletion and the disintegration of areas suitable for agricultural production. Therefore, it will be necessary to continue the technological progress in the production of crops, in biotechnology, in the creation of new plant varieties resistant to pests and adverse climatic changes.
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
Will future Big Data database systems supported by artificial intelligence be used in precise forecasting in order to verify futurological projections?
Currently, it is difficult to define this type of analytic problem. The key issue is forecasting future global problems. It is necessary to collect additional analytical data over the next years, and perhaps in the 21st century, in huge Big Data database systems supported by another generation of artificial intelligence, it will be possible to predict what may happen to the planet Earth in the future.
In view of the above, the current question is: Will future Big Data database systems supported by artificial intelligence be used in precise forecasting for the verification of futurological projections?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
Will hydrogen-oxygen fuel develop in the future in the automotive industry?
In my opinion, hydrogen fuel cell technology should become economical and safe in the future. However, currently hydrogen production is not cheap. The storage of hydrogen, e.g. in cylinders in cars that would be fueled by this fuel, is associated with a high risk of a dangerous explosion. Space shuttles in space programs in the USA were fueled by hydrogen-oxygen fuel. However, there have been tragic catastrophes.
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
Data-driven forecasting for the best decision-making under an uncertain situation
Is it possible in the future to develop the economy in a sustainable development model modeled on natural ecosystems?
First, natural ecosystems should be fully described and precisely presented in the media, including new online media. Then, natural ecosystems should be actively and widely promoted as models of sustainable development, including models of sustainable economic development on a national and global level.
Please reply. I invite you to the discussion
What type of electronic gadget will replace smartphones in the future?
Apparently, the largest technology companies are already working on a new type of electronic gadgets, which in the next stage of the current technological revolution, known as Industry 4.0, will replace smartphones.
Therefore, I am asking you: What type of electronic gadget will replace smartphones in the future?
Please reply.
What kind of innovations should be created in the 21st century to develop globally the model of sustainable development of national economies?
The development of ecological innovations, technological innovations, energy RES, material innovations that support replacing substitutes with exhausted resources of energy, innovations that improve the economic efficiency of reclaiming processes, innovations reducing reclamation costs of environment devastated by industry etc. will determine the implementation and development of the sustainable model in the future development of national economies.
However, the following questions appear:
- which of these types of innovations will be the most important and for which types of innovations should certain solutions be developed to improve the economic efficiency of these processes?
- whether thanks to these innovations it will be possible to develop the model of sustainable development of national economies globally already in the 21st century?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
Can novels and science fiction movies portray futurological visions of future technologies and inventions?
Is there a promise of technologies and inventions that will be developed in the future in novels and films of the science fiction genre?
In my opinion, in many science fiction movies you can find a preview of future inventions and technologies that will be implemented on the industrial scale. this is one of the main features of science fiction novels and movies.
In view of the above, the current question is: Is there a promise of technologies and inventions that will be developed in the future in novels and films of the science fiction genre?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
The above discussion inspired me to the following considerations:
Space travel and discovering other forms of life on other planets in space in science fiction novels and movies.
Moreover, it is interesting that in this period of the last few decades, ie when significant changes occurred in the astronomers' theories and in the answer to the question about the existence of other forms of life in the Universe, at the same time in the cinematography the presentation of these alternative alternatives has also changed. worlds, other life forms that may exist on other exoplanets.
It is from the 70s of the twentieth century that the form and content of the depicted cosmos and possible aliens in space in the subsequent films are changing.
The first of the films in which this issue was taken seriously is the movie "2001. Odyssey Space" directed by Stanley Kubrick.
The subject concerned space travel and not discovered, completely different forms of life, however, this film opened a new era in cinematography.
In the following years, more and more sci-fi movies were being made, in which the plot was somewhere in space with the participation of people meeting or even cooperating with other humanlike intelligent beings.
In one of these films, this subject was taken in the convention of typical entertainment as in the films from the saga "Star Trek" and "Star Wars" and in other films in conventions or catastrophic (hostile to Earth humans intelligent creatures from other exoplanets) or in a convention typical paranova , in which people in precisely planned space missions go to Mars (as in the films: "Mission to Mars", "Red Planet", "Martian", ...) or go outside the Solar System to colonize another exoplanet (film "Passenger").
Therefore, the convergence and correlation in the theories of scientists regarding the scale and the probability of other forms of life on other exoplanets and the observed changes in the presentation of the issues of space and life in the cosmos in the cinematography over the last few decades is an interesting one.
In view of the above, the current question is: Can other forms of life occur on other exoplanets?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
Will the concept of science-fiction genetic experiments to recreate the long-extinct dinosaur species used in the plot of the film "Jurassic Park" ever be possible?
The plot of the film "Jurassic Park" directed by Steven Spielberg is based on a simple, but currently unrealistic concept of laboratory testing of the reproduction of long-extinct dinosaur species.
The collected genetic material of dinosaurs from the blood of a mosquito sunken for millions of years in amber is the main material on the basis of which extinct dinosaur species are recreated.
The genetic material obtained in this way introduced into the germ cell of modern reptiles in the film gives the possibility of reproduction of extinct reptile species.
This idea is based on modern research and genetic experiments carried out in laboratories, whose aim is to create, for example, new crop varieties or produce drugs for specific diseases.
However, the reproduction of long-extinct species such as dinosaurs is still not possible because the genetic material undergoes deep fragmentation over millions of years.
The genetic chain of chromosomes breaks down into very short fragments. So short that there is no information on how to assemble them into whole chromosomes and the lack of enzymes that would be able to fragment these fragmented dinosaur DNA pieces into whole chromosomes.
But the technology of genetic research is developing. The whole genomes of various species of animals, plants and other life forms are studied. The knowledge base of genotypes and related species is successively growing in the Big Data resources created for this purpose.
Therefore, the question arises: Will the fantastic research concept applied in the plot of the film "Jurassic Park" ever be possible? Will it be possible to recreate long-extinct animal and plant species with the help of subsequent generations of research in the field of genetics in the future?
Will it be possible to create a real Jurassic Park in the future, within which dinosaurs will run among the vegetation composed, among others, of flowering and woody ferns, horsetail and ferns, or the restoration of the ecosystem from millions of years ago?
Or maybe a man should not even try this type of other than present ecosystems to play?
Is this also a matter of ethics? Is it not threatening modern ecosystems to restore ecosystems over millions of years, ie consisting of many long-extinct species of plants and animals?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
In addition, I note the interesting discussion inspired me to the following considerations:
Futurology in science fiction movies
Thanks to science fiction movies, many interesting futurological visions, many new inventions, etc. were created.
Many films from the science fiction genre were created in the film art, in which many prophetic visions and futurological projections appeared. For example, in the film "Return to the Future" directed by Robert Zemeckis appeared many futuristic products, some of which are currently in operation. Apparently, some inventions arose thanks to this film, especially the second part of this trilogy. The Hendo company from California launched in 2015 the first levitating magnetic skateboard. Apparently, Nike is working on creating shoes that will be automatically laced at the touch of a button that works similar to those that Marty McFly had in the second part of the trilogy. At the McFly house in 2015, we have a rich futuristic gallery and mostly hit ideas. Family members wear goggles with colorful LEDs at home, whose idea vividly resembles Google Glass or Oculus Rift. When the videophone speaks at the McFly, information about who the addressee of the call is displayed in the goggles. The interlocutor, the head of Marthy named Needles, appears on a completely flat screen TV and announces with satisfaction that McFly throws him out of work. Could the scriptwriters have predicted Skype? What's more, during the conversation next to the Needles likeness, information about his age, family, interests and preferences is displayed. That is the prediction of social media. A flat McFly TV moment later reveals yet another futuristic feature: multifunctionality. This happens when Marthy calls (voice!) Various TV channel proposals. The iconic time machine created by Dr. Emmett Brown is a converted DeLorean DMC-12. In the film, it is an electric car that uses 1,21 gigawatts of energy to travel in time to use a nuclear reactor. However, when this fails, a genius scientist replaces him with an "eco-fuel" of waste. We see Dr. Brown charging garbage in the tank, including fruit skins and pouring leftovers of beer from the can. This can be successfully compared to biomass fuels used today, among which the most popular is biodiesel, most often obtained from rapeseed oil. Other futuristic inventions that appeared in "Return to the Future 2" are thought-minded games, a camera with face recognition, 3D holographic street advertising videos, a camera drone, fingerprint identification, biometrics based payments, an alpha sleep rhythm generator , weather forecasting, rejuvenating treatments (Dr. Brown lengthened his life by 30-40 years, unprinting paper.) However, not all these inventions, gadgets or energy sources were created in the form as shown in this video. Cars fly but not on magnetic cushions like in this film only as drones or as autoloty, i.e. a car-to-plane intersection created by the American company Terrafugia in 2014 and another version by the Slovak company Aeromobil. On the other hand, not everything is provided in the picture from this movie. such dynamic development of the Internet, personal computers and smartphones events in that country are transmitted via fax and video calls.
But maybe in another science fiction movie that was created in the past better futuristic visions of the development of technology, technology, science, etc., which has happened to the present?
Or maybe there are such science fiction companies in the cinematography that have recently been created in recent years and present futuristic visions of the development of technology, science, etc., which is to be developed over several decades and presented in a very professional and full scientific knowledge, what could be considered a prophetic, futuristic vision of the future?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion
Futurology should address the following very important topic in the 21st century:
Can we still avoid a global climatic catastrophe and what should be done to avoid it?
Humanity has reportedly only had a decade of time for the necessary changes in the energy sector to avoid a global climatic catastrophe
Much has to change in consumer awareness, business must change and different social groups should force policies and change legal regulations. It is necessary to develop co-financing of investment projects in the field of renewable energy sources by the state from public funds. In addition, businesses must see this business. The development of renewable energy sources should be profitable, and it is not because it is cheaper to mine minerals, to devastate the natural environment. It is cheap to run classic energy based on mineral combustion because this classic energy and mining industry of hard and brown coal, oil refinery industry, automotive industry of vehicles equipped with internal combustion engines etc. is not burdened with the costs of natural environment devastation, costs of treatment of people who suffer from due to poor air, smog and no negative effects of global warming. If the mining, energy, processing and automotive industries were burdened with these costs, then it would not be worthwhile to devastate and pollute the natural environment. Then it would be more profitable to develop energy and industry based on renewable energy sources. Inventions of electricity have over 100 years of history. 100 years ago, electric cars should be produced, but the oil business this scenario of more sustainable development has crossed out. Therefore, for over 100 years, archaic energy based on the burning of minerals has been developed. During these 100 years, the average temperature of the Earth's surface has increased by 1 degree ° C. From specific scientific studies, it appears that humanity is only 12 years left to make the necessary changes, to switch energy and industry to renewable energy sources and the automotive industry to electromobility, to reduce poor quality of stoves and domestic ovens, on the development of large and small, home solar, wind and other power plants. At the same time, investment projects in renewable energy sources should be widely developed and entire economies should switch to sustainable pro-ecological development according to the concept of a green, new economy. If during this time these changes are not implemented then the average temperature of the Earth until 2030 will increase by another min. 1 degree ° C and then in the following years the greenhouse effect will accelerate and the problem of global warming will become an irreversible process, which will mean the widespread apocalyptic climate disasters covering most of the Earth's surface before the end of the 21st century.
In view of the above, the current question is: Can we still avoid a global climatic catastrophe and what should be done to avoid it?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
In view of the above, futurological theories should refer to the analysis of the problem of global warming and the possibility of implementing on global scale the principles of sustainable pro-ecological development based on the new, green economy
Humanity has reportedly only had a decade of time for necessary changes in the energy sector to avoid a global climatic catastrophe, i.e. to implement the principles of sustainable pro-ecological development in line with the concept of a new, green economy
Much has to change in consumer awareness, business must change and different social groups should force policies and change legal regulations. It is necessary to develop co-financing of investment projects in the field of renewable energy sources by the state from public funds. In addition, businesses must see this business. The development of renewable energy sources should be profitable, and it is not because it is cheaper to mine minerals, to devastate the natural environment. It is cheap to run classic energy based on mineral combustion because this classic energy and mining industry of hard and brown coal, oil refinery industry, automotive industry of vehicles equipped with internal combustion engines etc. is not burdened with the costs of natural environment devastation, costs of treatment of people who suffer from due to poor air, smog and no negative effects of global warming. If the mining, energy, processing and automotive industries were burdened with these costs, then it would not be worthwhile to devastate and pollute the natural environment. Then it would be more profitable to develop energy and industry based on renewable energy sources. Inventions of electricity have over 100 years of history. 100 years ago, electric cars should be produced, but the oil business this scenario of more sustainable development has crossed out. Therefore, for over 100 years, archaic energy based on the burning of minerals has been developed. During these 100 years, the average temperature of the Earth's surface has increased by 1 degree ° C. From specific scientific studies, it appears that humanity is only 12 years left to make the necessary changes, to switch energy and industry to renewable energy sources and the automotive industry to electromobility, to reduce poor quality of stoves and domestic ovens, on the development of large and small, home solar, wind and other power plants. At the same time, investment projects in renewable energy sources should be widely developed and entire economies should switch to sustainable pro-ecological development according to the concept of a green, new economy. If during this time these changes are not implemented then the average temperature of the Earth until 2030 will increase by another min. 1 degree ° C and then in the following years the greenhouse effect will accelerate and the problem of global warming will become an irreversible process, which will mean the widespread apocalyptic climate disasters covering most of the Earth's surface before the end of the 21st century.
In view of the above, the current question is: Can we still avoid a global climatic catastrophe and what should be done to avoid it?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
The above question inspired me to the following considerations:
What are the main directions of the development of electromobility of the automotive industry?
Will the technologies of electric motors and the new generation of batteries installed in cars and other motor vehicles be developed in the scope of the main directions of development of electromobility of the automotive industry? Will the technology of hydrogen engines or other types of engines be developed as part of the development of eco-motorisation? At present, in the majority of countries, there is no financial resources for financing high-budget pro-ecological projects from public finance funds? Should new, new ecological innovations, new technological solutions in the field of renewable energy sources, new ecoelectrodes producing electricity for the needs of electromobility in the automotive industry, new generations of batteries, photovoltaic panels, energy storage and transmission stations, hydrogen and other engines, etc. be created that the production and use of electricity generated from renewable energy sources becomes profitable, that it becomes a profitable business, that electromobility will become more and more profitable, profitable, and the prices of electric cars drop significantly? If this process lasts for a long time, there may be a shortage of time to implement the necessary reforms aimed at disseminating in the global economy a model of sustainable pro-ecological development based on the concept of green economy. If this process lasts much longer than by 2030, there may not be enough time to carry out the necessary reforms to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and, consequently, the planet's warming process will accelerate considerably, this process will be irreversible and will continue to accelerate and towards the end of the 21st century century will lead to a global climate disaster that threatens the life of all humanity and most other forms of life on Earth.
In view of the above, the current question is: What are the main directions of the development of electromobility of the automotive industry?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
In connection with the beginning of the New Year, the above discussion inspired me to the following considerations:
Interestingly, futurological visions of the future presented in literature and film from the science fiction genre are only partially realized when years later of these earlier futurological visions comes. For example, in the first version of the movie "Blade Runner," in which the main character played Harrison Ford was presented a vision of the future for 2019. We already have this year now and this vision of the future has been largely accomplished. Recently a second version was made, a remake of this film with the same title and that the presented vision of the future could be considered futurological. The film's action was moved to the future by 2049. I wonder what part of the future's visions will be realized in this film when it appears 2019? But there are many such futurological visions and other similar ones. These other futurological visions of the future, futurological visions of the future are also presented in other titles of science fiction novels and movies. Usually these elements of these futurological visions, which appear more often in various artistic works, including novels, films and other genres of art, but also in popular science publications, are more likely to be realized. However, the estimation of the date, the year when this happens if the futurological vision runs out into the future for several decades, is unfortunately very difficult. The difficulty results from the currently very rapid technological development of human civilization.
Therefore, encouraging discussion, I am asking you the following question: Fulfilling futurological visions described in literature in the 20th century?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
I wish you the best in New Year 2019. Best wishes
The above discussion inspired me to the following considerations:
What will be the possibilities to connect Blockchain technology with other information technologies in the future?
An interesting issue to scientifically verify the links that already exist or may be in the future between IoT and Blockchain. In my opinion, both IoT and Blockchain technologies will develop intensively in the coming years and there will be more and more applications in which it will be possible to connect technologies typical of the current industrial revolution known as Industry 4.0 as: Big Data database technologies, cloud computing, machine learning, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, Business Intelligence, Data Mining, Blockchain and other technologies for the analysis and processing of digital information.
Please, answer, comments.
I invite you to the discussion.
Best wishes
In the context of the above considerations, the following question is also current:
What elements of information technology should an analytical and database system be used to predict the continuation of trends for multifaceted processes?
The analysis of predictions and the continuation of specific processes could, for example, relate to climatic, market, cosmic, geological, natural and economic processes, etc.
Are the basic components of this type of system should be the following components of computerized advanced information processing technologies typical of the current technological revolution, known as Industry 4.0.?:
- Big Data database system,
- Business Intelligence analytical platform,
- data processing in the cloud,
- artificial intelligence.
In addition, if the system should have convenient access from the Internet, these types of solutions can be made possible through the Internet of Things technology. In this way, access to the system or some of its modules could be implemented, for example, from smartphones, tablets, laptops and other mobile devices.
Do you agree with me on the above matter?
In the context of the above issues, I am asking you the following question:
What elements of information technology should an analytical and database system be used to predict the continuation of trends for multifaceted processes?
Please reply
I invite you to the discussion
Thank you very much
Best wishes
Dear Colleagues and Friends from RG,
I propose the following proposal of a research topic in this area:
The role of futurology in the context of forecasting future world development processes.
In connection with the above, I formulated the following proposal for a research question in this area:
What are the possibilities of applying Industry 4.0 technology in the field of futurology to improve forecasting of future complex social, economic, political, natural, climate and other processes of prospective development of the world?
In the context of analyzing the determinants of the development of science, I propose the following research topic: Possibilities of using Industry 4.0 technology in the field of futurology to improve forecasting of future complex social, economic, political, natural, climate and other processes of prospective world development. In my opinion, thanks to the use of ICT information technologies and advanced data processing Industry 4.0, the possibilities of using these technologies in the field of futurology can be significantly increased to improve forecasting of future complex social, economic, political, natural, climate and other processes of prospective development of the world. On the other hand, the development of forecasting techniques is subject to changes caused by various determinants of technological progress and the possibility of implementing Big Data Analytics analytics, sentiment analyzes carried out on large data sets downloaded from the Internet, including from social media websites. Below are the arguments for my thesis.
On the basis of the above considerations and conclusions from the discussion on interesting issues discussed, I formulated the following thesis that the importance of futurology in planning and forecasting future world development processes is important. Therefore, futurology can develop in correlation with the improvement of instrumental forecasting techniques based on the involvement of modern ICT and Industry 4.0 information technologies. Below I have described the key determinants confirming the formulated research thesis. To the above discussion I would like to add the following conclusion formulated as a summary of my earlier considerations on this topic: the role and importance of futurology in planning and forecasting future world development processes and the improvement of instrumental forecasting techniques based on the involvement of modern ICT and Industry 4.0 information technologies. The above discussion inspired me to formulate the following question:
What is the meaning of futurology in planning and forecasting future world development processes?
In the last few decades, at least several political fiction films bordering on science fiction have already been made, in which various visions of the world resulting from this type of scenario of historical events have been presented. However, in history you cannot be fooled, because each significant event is the source of many subsequent events. Therefore, these alternative scenarios contain many issues arising from subjective judgments and potentially contain many interpretational errors for events that did not happen and which perhaps would have happened, but only perhaps. Therefore, this type of theoretical consideration in the field of history should not be taken seriously, due to the high level of alternativeity and making errors of interpretation for an unlimited number of different scenarios of events resulting from another, one event that could have happened in the past.
An example of futurological considerations undertaken in science fiction novels and films is the topic of determining the possibilities of building autonomous robots equipped with artificial intelligence, artificial consciousness and emotions typical of living beings. Only highly organized living things, including humans, have emotions. People have emotional intelligence. Emotions are felt by highly organized living beings who have consciousness. Intelligent beings such as man are aware of their existence and their relationship with the environment. Currently, it is not possible to build robots that have awareness of their existence and emotions. Even high-generation artificial intelligence is just a machine. Autonomous robots equipped with artificial intelligence are also machines, so at least in the context of current technology it is not possible to build robots with emotions. So robots equipped with emotions appearing in science fiction novels and movies can not be treated as part of futurological visions but it is pure fantasy.
In some activities this is possible and robots are already being produced that replace people in certain repetitive activities. However, will robots replace people in the future in all activities and functions? In my opinion, it is not possible for this type of futurological vision to be realized. People are afraid of this type of scenario for the future development of civilization.
The expression of these fears is the predominance of negative futurological visions known from literature and sciec fiction films that this type of civilization development in which autonomous robots replace people in almost all activities, difficult works, production processes and obtain a high level of artificial intelligence generates serious threats to humanity.
Interestingly, the futurological visions of the future depicted in the science fiction literature and film are only partially realized when years later these earlier futurological visions come. For example, in the first version of the movie "The Android Hunter", in which the main character was played by Harrison Ford, the vision of the future for 2019 was presented. We already have this year and this vision of the future has been realized to a small extent. A second version, a remake of this film with the same title, was recently shot and that the presented vision of the future could be considered futurological, the film's action was shifted to the future until 2049. I wonder in what part the visions of the future presented in this film will be realized when it appears year 2019? But there are many such futurological visions and similar ones. These other futurological visions of the future, futuristic visions of the future are also presented in other titles of novels and science fiction movies. Usually, those elements of these futurological visions that appear more often in various artistic works, including novels, films and other genres of art, but also in popular science publications are more likely to be realized. However, estimating the date and year when this happens if the futurological vision looks ahead for several dozen years is unfortunately very difficult. The difficulty is due to the very rapid technological development of human civilization currently taking place.
In my opinion, in many science fiction movies you can find a preview of future inventions and technologies that will be implemented on an industrial scale. This is one of the main functions of science fiction novels and movies. The science fiction genre is one of the most important genres in film art. Thanks to science fiction films, many interesting futurological visions have been created, many new inventions etc. In the art of film, many science fiction films have been created, in which many prophetic futurological visions and projections have appeared. For example, in the film "Back to the Future" directed by Robert Zemeckis, there are many futuristic products, some of which are currently functioning. Apparently, several inventions were made thanks to this film, especially the second part of this trilogy. In 2015, the California company Hendo launched the first magnetic levitating skateboard. Apparently, Nike is working on the creation of shoes lacing automatically at the press of a button operating similarly to those in the second part of the trilogy owned by Marty McFly. In the McFly house in 2015 we have a rich gallery of futuristic and mostly hit ideas. Family members wear goggles with colorful LEDs at home, the idea of ??which resembles Google Glass or Oculus Rift vividly. When the videophone is spoken by McFlys, the goggles display information about who the addressee of the connection is. The interlocutor, Martha's boss named Needles, appears on a completely flat screen TV and is pleased to tell McFly that he is fired. Did the scriptwriters manage to predict Skype? What's more, during the conversation, information about his age, family, interests or preferences are displayed next to the image of Needles. That's a social media prophecy.
In addition, the McFly flat screen TV reveals another future feature: multifunctionality. This happens when Martha calls (voiced!) Various TV channel suggestions. The iconic time machine created by Dr. Emmett Brown is the converted DeLorean DMC-12. In the film, it is an electric car that uses a nuclear reactor to produce 1.21 gigawatts of energy needed for time travel. However, when this fails, the brilliant scientist replaces it with "eco-fuel" from waste. We see Dr. Brown loading garbage into the tank, including fruit peels, and pouring the leftover beer from the can. This can be successfully compared to the biomass fuels used today, among which biodiesel, most commonly obtained from rapeseed oil, is the most popular. Other futuristic inventions that appeared in "Return to the Future 2" are: thought-controlled games, camera with face recognition function, 3D holographic street ads, drone with camera, fingerprint identification, biometric payments, alpha rhythm generator , weather forecasting, rejuvenation treatments (Dr. Brown extended his life by 30-40 years, dust-free paper. However, not all these inventions, gadgets or energy sources were created in the form presented in this film. Cars fly but not on magnetic cushions like in this film only as drones or as airplanes, i.e. a car-plane intersection created in 2014 by the American company Terrafugia and in another version by the Slovak company Aeromobil.
On the other hand, not everything was foreseen in the image from this film. For example, such dynamic development of the Internet, personal computers and smartphones was not foreseen. Information in the local reality is transmitted via fax and video calls. But maybe in another science fiction movie that was made in the past, a more accurately presented futuristic visa for the development of technology, technology, science, etc. that has been made up to now? Or maybe there are such science fiction companies in cinematography that were created recently, in recent years and present futuristic visions of the development of technology, technology, science, etc., which development is to take place over several decades and was presented very professionally and with full coverage scientific knowledge, what could be considered a prophetic, futuristic vision of the future?
The importance of futurology is confirmed by examples of novels and films that have been recognized as futurological visions of the development of the world or specific parts of it, countries, and areas of development of states. For example: Was George Orwell's 1984 novel a visionary, futurological vision of a totalitarian state? George Orwell's 1984 novel was to be a warning to humanity, as a futurological vision it was to present an optional and the most negative scenario for the development of totalitarianisms that arose at the beginning of the 20th century and in the 1930s, and if it continued to develop it could have resulted in the second half Of the twentieth century to the emergence of extremely totalitarian powers, in which almost every citizen was under full control of the state. The book "1984" by George Orwell was to be a visionary warning for humanity against the possible development of totalitarian superpowers, in which the ruling monoparts maintain power through terror inside the country and by conducting constant wars with other countries to take control of other countries and to impose a totalitarian system of power on other countries.
If there was a time machine and it was possible to go back in time, then some of our strategic decisions that had a big impact on the development of later events would be slightly different from those that were actually made in the past. This would result from the additional information available to develop later situations and events. However, the paradox is that many people would do so, so the current reality would almost certainly be completely different than it is, so also our initial knowledge of the development of later situations and events would be different, and thus the time loop paradox arises.
Research is currently underway in some research centers to improve research techniques and quantitative forecasting instruments. The research concerns the involvement of new information and information technologies such as: Big Data database technologies, cloud computing, machine learning, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence for predictive research processes, forecasting future events. The positive effects of this type of research are already defined. However, the need to continue these studies to more fully confirm the results obtained.
More and more companies, banks and other entities need to carry out multi-criteria analyzes on large datasets downloaded from the Internet describing the markets in which they operate and contractors and clients with whom they cooperate. On the other hand, there are already specialized technology companies that offer this type of analytical services, prepare commissioned reports, which are the result of such multi-criteria analyzes of large data sets obtained from various websites and from entries and comments contained on social media portals.
On the other hand, futurology is an important field of para-scientific knowledge. There are already many futurological visions in which there are projections of what the world will look like in 2030, 2050 or even at the end of the 21st century. Para-scientific futurological visions are based on the extrapolation of current development trends of major global processes and the high probability of specific phenomena in the future. However, the period of the next 10 years requires the use of a high level of correlation with diagnosed and described in detail dominant global processes operating in various spheres of developing economies, atmospheric, climatic, geological, space phenomena, etc. apart from economic, demographic, technological, civilization, cultural progress etc. The period of 10 years can be considered as a period during which strategic new scientific discoveries relevant to the development of civilization can take place and significant technological inventions can arise, for which the starting point is the current reality but after 10 years they can be so different from what surrounds us now that incorporating them in futurological visions borders on divination with tea grounds.
On the other hand, the period of 10 years is so short that it is possible to overlook the slow cosmic, geological, astrophysical, etc. processes that may affect planet Earth during this period. However, the technique of research and observation of long-term progress of civilization development processes as well as natural and climate processes, including global warming processes, which are growing faster and faster. In connection with the above, the current visions and futurological concepts of the global economy based mostly on the green economy, currently not fully realistic, may become a reality in a dozen or so years. Let only humanity manage to transform this transformation of classical economics towards green economy before the global warming process, which is progressing faster and faster, will cause an increase in the average temperature at the Earth's surface by min. 3-4 degrees C which will mean a strong increase in the scale and frequency of weather anomalies and climatic disasters, which will seriously hinder people's lives in a significant part of land areas. The current (end of August and beginning of September 2019) intensifying and much larger than in previous years fires of the Amazon rainforests, forest fires in Australia, the Siberian Tundra and other places of the world is a serious SOS signal sent by the Earth's nature towards man, a signal warning informing about the next exceeded level of imbalance in nature caused by the development of human civilization.
In view of the above, it may be important to try to answer the following question: How would you design a similar or other futuristic energy and civilization project, containing renewable energy sources from renewable energy sources and restoration of natural conditions, referring to natural ecosystems, which after years would be able to self-regenerate? For example, would it be possible to have a sustainable economic ecosystem from scratch to achieving economic efficiency at a level of at least zero growth with unlimited investment funds as follows: Can a large solar plant be developed in the desert and water and energy generated from the energy produced develop agricultural production and plant ecosystems, including forest ecosystems, which after several decades could almost function by themselves? An important factor would be any progressive climate change in the area and the geographical scope of the area covered by this investment project.
Some science fiction films have scenes that suggest that it's possible, economically justified and real. However, there can be a big difference from the visions presented in science fiction movies to the creation of real projects. But many of the futurological visions that have arisen in the past have been realized, so it is justified to make such attempts to create further futurological projects. In connection with the above, I would like to ask you the following question: How would you design the energy sector if you had unlimited financial resources? How would you design a similar or other futuristic energy and civilization project, containing renewable energy sources for renewable energy sources and recreation of natural conditions, referring to natural ecosystems, which after years would be able to regenerate?
As part of sustainable and pro-ecological development, various concepts of modern urban development arise. Futurological concepts for the development of cities of the future usually take into account certain aspects of sustainable, pro-ecological development and the use of modern information technologies in the development of urban agglomerations according to the concept of smart city. For example, what new, innovative construction technologies, pro-ecological material innovations, pro-ecological renewable energy sources, information systems for autonomous cars, charging stations for cars and other electric vehicles, modern communication solutions and information systems, etc. should be used and installed in cities future that meet the principles of sustainable, environmentally friendly development and developed according to the concept of smart city?
Demographers estimate that by 2050 the number of people on Earth will reach 10 billion. With this number of people, the agricultural economy, food supply logistics and people's eating habits will have to change. Probably, economics will force these processes that will result in the transition of most of humanity to nutrition mainly based on a plant or vegetarian diet. Meat production is many times more expensive than the production of cereals, fruit and vegetables. In addition, according to scientific research and theories of futurologists, the production of traditional meat, e.g. pork and beef, may be replaced by the production of protein from insect breeding. Research shows that there is more protein in the bodies of insects than in traditional meat dishes.
In addition, the logistics of food and agri-food products will have to be improved. Systems for adapting agri-food production to the current needs of industry and the nutritional needs of people will be improved to reduce the scale of food waste. The biggest threat to the implementation of this plan may be unforeseen atmospheric phenomena, natural disasters, droughts, hurricanes, tropical heat in areas where crops have been grown so far. In addition, the industrial exploitation of arable land and climate change are causing sterilization of the soil and decreasing acres suitable for agricultural production. Therefore, it will be necessary to continue technological progress in the production of agricultural products, in biotechnology, in the creation of new plant varieties resistant to pests and adverse climate changes.
Prediction techniques vary in different areas of knowledge. In economics and finance, quantitative instrumental methods are used based on the analysis of quantitative data and statistical analysis. In addition, extrapolations of trends in diagnosed processes are used that have been measured and described for a specific period of time in the past. However, in the humanities, in the fields of knowledge characterized by qualitative specificity, other prognostic methods are also used, which may be partly qualitative.
In biological sciences, methods of observing changes in various natural, climatic, cosmic phenomena are used, etc.
Therefore, forecasting future global problems is a key issue. It is necessary to collect additional analytical data for years to come, and perhaps in the 21st century in huge Big Data database systems supported by the next generation of artificial intelligence, you will be able to forecast what might happen to planet Earth in the future.
According to the above, in my opinion the importance of futurology in planning and forecasting future world development processes is important. Therefore, perhaps in the near future futurology will develop in correlation with the improvement of instrumental forecasting techniques based on the implementation into the analytical processes of modern ICT and Industry 4.0 information technologies.
Do you agree with me on the above matter?
In view of the above, in order to more fully identify the above issues, it is necessary to conduct research that will facilitate the formulation of answers to the following questions:
- What do you think about film visions presenting alternative scenarios of historical events?
- When fully autonomous humanoid robots will be serially produced, i.e. futurological visions known from such science fiction novels and films as "I. Robot", "AI Artificial Intelligence", "Ex Machina", "Chappie", "Bicentennial Man "," Star Wars "," Star Trek ", etc.?
- Can the current surreal concepts of the transformation of classic economics into green economy become a reality in the perspective of a dozen or so or at the latest several dozen subsequent years?
- What are the futurological visions for the development of modern cities of the future that meet the principles of sustainable, pro-ecological development?
- How can you define a time looping paradox if a time machine was created?
- Will someday in the future Big Data database systems supported by artificial intelligence be used in precise forecasting to verify futurological projections?
- The fulfillment of futurological visions described in the literature and presented in science fiction films in the 20th century?
- In your opinion, which science fiction movie turned out to be the most futuristically prophetic?
- Can you find a preview of technology and inventions that will be developed in the future in science fiction novels and movies?
- What science fiction movies or novels contain 21st century futurological visions?
- What are the known futurological visions of technology development until about 2050?
- What is the meaning of futurology in planning and forecasting future world development processes?
- What do you think about this topic?
- What is your opinion on this topic?
Please reply
I invite you to discussion
thank you very much
Best wishes
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Foresight of global trends and processes (globalistics).
The common rules of scientific methodology do apply to futuristics (as expertise).
Tech-know-logical evolution is technically more simple to predict than the implied socio-ethical and cultural dilemmas, e.g. medical technology
'Bucky' is still important: https://www.bfi.org/
What are the important topics in the field: Futurology, forecasting, future, technologies of the future?
Personally I think Artificial Intelligence encompasses all the big data analytics, machine learning, neural networks etc. will continue transform to provide insights from the past and to predict the future / next step actions not only from the past but also based on various real time factors e.g. IoT, current PEST / environmental / surrounding trends as well as human emotions or subjective perceptions.
Dear Colleagues and Friends from RG, Thank you very much for participating in this discussion.
In the context of the above issues, the following research question arises: Is futurology just one of the effects of attempts to combine knowledge and forecasting with science fiction visions or does it also create real added value for knowledge?
Please reply,
What do you think about this topic? Regards, have a nice day,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
As part of futurology, visionaries, researchers, scientists, etc. try to diagnose the directions of development of new trends taking place as part of the development of civilization, technology, economy, science, etc. in the future.
What is your opinion on this issue?
I invite you to the discussion,
Thank you very much,
Greetings,
Dariusz Prokopowicz