When you read scientific research related to climate change it is apparent that many types of disparate data are integrated when simulations of the future are made. How does the educated, social scientist (with no climatology training ) evaluate the quality of the research and how it is integrated to produce different scenarios with broader or more narrow ranges of values? Are many researchers focusing on the replication of research?
How would you rate the state of climate research: nascent, developing, developed in specific areas, mature? What are the biggests current gaps in our knowledge of ocean and atmospheric systems...? Are there also gaps in modeling the interactions between systems that contribute to less certainty? Does the climate change community readily admit to those gaps? What are some significant recent anomalies? Have they been accounted for sufficiently?
How do you judge climate scientists that have gradually evolved into advocates?
As a modeller I found data on soil carbon, its changes with time, soil bulk density are lacking.
We usually get help from long term fertilizer trials datasets; unfortunately these are inadequate and heavily skewed towards crop data.
Soil data are few and far between.
Regards
The great deviation of results from the actual value is due to non-consideration of blue carbon in the process of carbon dynamics.
Good questions. Follows are brief answers of mine to some of them:
1. How would you rate the state of climate research: nascent, developing, developed in specific areas, mature?
A: Developing. Many climatologists are too optimistic about the current state of climate change research.
2. What are the biggest current gaps in our knowledge of ocean and atmospheric systems...?
A: Multi-decadal to centurial scale natural variability in the coupled system of ocean-atmosphere-land. Many climatologists may have underestimated the long-term natural variability.
3. Are there also gaps in modeling the interactions between systems that contribute to less certainty?
A: Yes.
4. Does the climate change community readily admit to those gaps?
A: Large uncertainty exists, and we have to more studies to narrow the gaps.
5. What are some significant recent anomalies?
A: The so-called “Hiatus” in the last 15 years. It once again indicates the importance of the multi-decadal to centurial scale natural variability of global climate system.
6. Have they been accounted for sufficiently?
A: No. Most of the climate models used in the current studies and assessments could not well simulate the “hiatus”.
7. What are the critical data and modeling limitations of current green-house gas research?
A: Systematic biases in observational data and the area-averaged surface temperature series, and the weak capability of climate models to capture some of the important characteristics of climatology and climate change/variability.
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