It seems that the energy market is plunging due to the worldwide spread of Coronavirus. It is said that the virus threat would be over by the weather getting warm. Could it be a boost in the energy market, say in mid-spring, as a result of global economy compensation?
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Current studies do not indicate the impact of high temperatures on the spread of the Coronavirus, and the evidence of its arrival in the Arab Gulf region in Iran, Bahrain, and others, and the effect of the virus will be greater on perhaps
International trade traffic is much more than the energy market.
He changed the world scene and its dimensions and gave a lesson to humanity in the necessity of cooperation and interdependence
Please find a System Dynamics analysis in the following link:
https://metasd.com/2020/02/stock-markets-coronavirus-endogenous-perspective/
I think the virus would not be over by the weather getting warmer. Because it will be spread in the southern half of the earth. In addition, nowadays, there are patients in the southern half of the earth as mentioned in the following link. The virus would be over, when a vaccine or drug is discovered and then it could be a boost in global energy markets.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Your reasoning is field-based and thoughtful. Taking the evidence into account, the recovery would be far from now. Nevertheless, it may be over in a society before a medical cure is found, if the prevention measures will be taken very seriously, or the virus will spread worldwide together with its consequences including a rather natural vaccination.
Dear Colleagues and Friends from RG, Certainly Coronavirus's impact on the economy, financial markets and the energy sector will be very large. We don't know how big, because there are too many question marks, but it is certain that this impact will be very large. The prices of stocks, gold, energy resources and other assets on capital markets are rapidly falling. We currently have a stock market crash on the stock market similar to other stock market crashes that have previously started global financial and / or economic crises. It is even possible for the global economy to recession in 2020 and a strong decline in economic growth in the next few years. Due to the increasing scale of human infection with SARS-Cov-2 Coronavirus causing COVID-19 disease, the risk of subsequent infections is increasing rapidly and the scale of the epidemic is difficult to estimate. At the moment, until the Coronavirus vaccine and epidemic scale are created, and now the pandemic will increase, the Coronavirus has become the potential major source of the global economic crisis.
In my opinion, global economic growth in 2020 will fall by at least 2 points. percent. and maybe more. In developing countries where there are heavily indebted public finance systems, there will be difficulties in implementing anti-crisis socio-economic policy. In countries where the development of the epidemic will have greater negative economic effects, production will fall sharply, offering services such as tourism, catering, hotel services, etc., income, investments, unemployment will increase, tax revenues to the state budget will decrease, and economic growth will decline in 2020 a year can even reach several points percent. Such developments may lead to economic recession in some countries. The current stock market crash consisting in a strong overestimation of valuations of shares, other securities, gold, oil and other commodities confirms the highly probable negative scenario about the possibility of recession and serious problems in financial systems in a significant part of countries in 2020.
On the other hand, it is difficult to predict what the world will look like once humanity has solved the problem of Coronavirus. a lot will change for sure. We can already see many changes. The economy, people's behavior, food preferences, lifestyle, forms of work are changing, etc. The importance of remote work and learning via the Internet is increasing. A lot will change, but we do not know how much, because there is no answer to many questions about the potential for the continuation of the epidemic, now the Coronavirus pandemic. We don't know when the vaccine will be invented? Maybe only in a few months or later. These are the estimates of pharmaceutical companies. We do not know whether the Coronavirus virus will mutate and create its new, equally dangerous varieties. We don't know where these Coronavirus came from? Has it been released from thawing Antarctic ice, or has it been passed on to humans from animals, e.g. bats living in China or perhaps other animals? There are various theories on this subject, but none have yet been confirmed. There are many question marks. What is certain is that after the Coronavirus era, the world will look different.
Best wishes.
Dariusz Prokopowicz
It is true that the impact of the virus on the global economy and the energy market would be much more severe than it was expected in the last month. We are almost sure that the market won't be restored in short term even if the peak of virus crises get over in a a week or two. This is because the economy have plunged so deep that it takes time to be recovered. Asa result, massive layoffs in some big companies worldwide just started to happen and it cannot be reversed in a few months.
The detrimental effects of Coronavirus on the economy and energy market are getting more serious as the virus is now spread in many countries. But, what is now of higher importance is to seek new opportunities for this recession. From an economic point of view, the world is going to experience an unforgettable recession. However, this can be retrieved. From other important perspectives, especially health, the ramifications are irremediable. It is safe to ask: Is there any solution to stop the pernicious effects of it? Is the world doing well in this regard?
I agree with previous comments (@Mohammad Jahanpour Dehkordi ) that all data indicates this will not be a quick fix. Here (I am in Malta, southern Europe) they are talking of possible 12-18 month duration. The devastating impact on the world economy plus the dramatic fall in oil prices could mean big trouble for the RE market - no one is installing anything in the hard-hit regions - and those regions keep growing. Many companies could go under before this is over.
The possible decline in RE installation due to the reduced energy demand and the low oil price as mentioned by Luciano Mulè Stagno is very important drawback of the virus spread. It is indeed a technology setback that could not had been foreseen before at all.
another big worry is if the pandemic lasts long whether some companies can survive.
The virus will be defeated but its consequences may last forever.
It will have a deep impact as you see the dramatic depletion in the oil prices. I think it will take 12-18 months to recover.
It is truly heartbreaking to see the current situation continue to unfold world-wide. I too am no expert on economics, but tend to agree with Janet (above) who says " I do not think what we are experiencing can be compared to any of the similar market downfalls" - this is an unprecedented event. Already, there are countless small businesses facing potential financial ruin, and it is not certain when it will stop. It may be a few years before a true recovery is seen. But again, I confess I am no expert on economic matters.
Higher weather temperatures can perhaps kill the free-roaming virus faster than cold weather temperatures but does not impede spreading. Here in Europe we are still at the beginning of this pandemic. We are yet to see any financial disaster. Government economic bailouts, handouts etc (basically free money) if they occur will stop any impending financial crisis. This includes all sectors as well as energy.
I think it will be well into summer before we reach any sort of new equilibrium, and it's not at all clear what that new equilibrium will look like.
It is the right time to set and reevaluate the policies adopted by big powers on all fields regarding the relations between the north and the south, between the rich and the poor countries where injustice done by them to..............................
In the short term, this will certainly affect the global economy. So it can be said to affect the energy economy as well, but remember that this is a short term issue.
It seems that this threat will end and that it will become less important over time, but in any case, the global economy is looking for an opportunity to get out of the predicament.
FOLLOW UP TO THE ORIGINAL QUESTION:
The question was asked about two months ago. Since then, the virus has continued to spread worldwide and its economic consequences have headed towards a deep and probably long lasting global crises. More recently, the energy market plunged to an all time worst with negative oil prices. The disaster could not been predicted two months ago. However, most answers above pointed to the direction we went through during this short period. I appreciate all participants to the discussion and ask for remarks regarding the global long-term economic impact of COVID-19 and energy market situation in light of the trends we have seen in the last two months.