I have total population size (age-sex specific & aggregated) of last 66 years for my country. I was planning to fit an ARIMA model so that forecasting for next 30-40 years can be done.
Now it seems to me that forecasting age specific population instead of total population will acquire more accuracy (?). If forecasting is done separately for different sex groups of each age group then will it be more accurate? Will it capture more info.?
Kindly share your opinion.
Yes age specific population forecasting is likely to be more accurate and informative than overall population forecasting. Besides from just one overall population there are many age-specific populations. Therefore there is wider scope and therefore more information with the age-specific analysis.
Hi,
Did you run any model yet? Though I understand that population size or growth growth does not change immediately. But I am still wondering, how acceptable it will be to forecast for next 30 to 40 years based on only 66 years data? If you have only 66 observation then try to reduce the forecast period.
I ran the model.
To acquire more accuracy I narrowed down my forecasting period to 16 years, results are plausible.
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