False discovery rates (alpha values) are readily available for each phase of the pharmaceutical development process. Missed-chance or missed-opportunity rates (beta values) are harder to estimate since they require a secondary screen of drugs dropped from development. Does anyone know of data - perhaps from outlicensing programmes - on the probability that a potential drug is falsely rejected?
Article Torching the Haystack: Modelling Fast-Fail Strategies in Dru...
I have now estimated the false positive and false negative rates at each stage of the development process. However, I'm still looking for an independent dataset that would allow validation of my estimated false negative rates.
Would you be surprised to learn that around one third of marketed products are false positives? At Newcastle we have developed methods for the estimation of false positive and false negative rates at each step in the drug development process.
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