Hi Samarathunga

I have been thinking of this question too. The travel, tourism, and hospitality sectors have been the worst-affected sectors during this pandemic. As countries relax the restrictions on domestic and international travel, tourism and hospitality, I envisage two likely scenarios. The Government and the Central Bank across the world may have to be vigilant and prepared to respond to any of the two scenarios.

Scenario 1: In spite of the relaxations, people may remain cautious of travelling domestically and internationally (by air, road and waterways), avoid visiting tourist places and staying in hotels. If this happens, the travel, tourism, and hospitality sectors would have a slow recovery and growth would remain low for a prolonged period. This in turn would have a cascading effect on the rest of the economy (particularly on the oil sector). Demand remains muted generally and inflation remains low for a long time.

In this scenario, governments and central banks would be constrained to continue the fiscal and monetary stimulus for a long time (just like as it was post the 2008 global financial crisis). Interest rates would continue to be low for sometime.

Scenario 2: As countries relax, having spent so much time indoors, people could rush out to travel and tour outside. There would be a surge in the pent-up demand for travel, tourism and hotel services. Prices could spike quickly having a cascading effect on the crude oil and other prices. With inflation expected to go up, central banks may end up reversing the interest rate easing cycle.

We will have to wait and watch which scenario enfolds.

Good luck.

Arun

I am interested for Scenario 2, and will search for the closest tourist destination for sure...

Dear Ph. D. No one knows what will happen after COVID-19, but I assume that very stringent border control measures will be taken to prevent sick people from entering the countries, but once the paperwork at airports passes through activities in tourist facilities they should continue normally. The crisis of COVID-19 will not change the structures on which the socioeconomic development of nations is based, once the economies recover everything will be as before. Obviously, the least developed countries will be more affected by this economic crisis and the wealthy will be stronger. It is the logic of globalization, those who are closest to finding a vaccine against COVID-19 are the nations with the highest economic development, those who will reopen their tourism the fastest and recover the fastest are the nations with the highest tourism development, the same that will not allow anything to change.

Meaningful information about the possible scenarios after COVID-19 on the topic stated in subject line of question.

Arun Vishnu Kumar Thank you very much for your comprehensive opinions. Whilst agreeing with your ideas I think we also have to find answers to the following questions:

1. Future tourism products?

Mass tourism is at a stake due to the mass-movement of people and possibility of spread of similar viruses among the tourists. Will alternative tourism replace mass-tourism, if yet, what alternative products will be most demanded and how we can develop them?

2. Future tourism markets?

The top five source markets in the world are badly affected. However, as Juan Manuel Montero Peña very correctly suggests, the developed countries will recover faster and stronger. In that sense, we will have to evaluate which countries to target in terms of destination marketing.

Both scenarios are possible, however, I agree more with the scenario 1 where the tourism will have a slow growth and this will be there for another 2 - 3 years. The scenario 2 is doubtful considering the present mental status of our main source markets after seeing the tragic deaths and sufferings. However, this create a new demand for alternative tourism products like Ayurvedha, yoga, health and wellness tourism.

Juan Manuel Montero Peña Thank you very much for your comment. Yet, tourism will take place under different conditions and standards including different formalities at the point of entries.

However, I feel that the COVID19 will change the economic structures in developing countries into more advanced and technology-based economies. Regional economies, domestic economies (towards closed economies), contactless services are emerging during the peak of the pandemic. I think this will lead to a next level of 'economic paradigm shift'.

it will be health and edu tourism

Due to reduced income,and due to health concerns(out of fear of getting infected),people will definitely avoid travelling,affecting adversely the hospitality sector.But Medical Tourism and Agricultural Tourism may experience a boost.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343362937_Problems_and_Opportunities_in_the_Hospitality_Industry_in_a_Masked_and_Rubber-Gloved_World

Best regards. – Sotiris

Would boom again and be better or more fascinating

It will boost up again...

The coronavirus pandemic could cut 50 million jobs globally in the travel and tourism industry. The virus is hitting organizations hard from all over the world.

• The Novel Coronavirus Outbreak is Affecting Aviation 
• The Coronavirus Outbreak is Affecting Tours and Activities
• The Coronavirus Outbreak is Affecting Hotels 
• Startups That Can Help Organizations

Regarding tourism demand forecast, may I suggest the Special issue: https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability/special_issues/Novel_Tourism_Demand_Modelling. Also, some open access thoughts abot the challenging future of tourism can be founded at Article A Charter for Sustainable Tourism after COVID-19

Article The future of tourism in the COVID-19 era