Do you think that the second wave of the corona virus will be more virulent and fatal than the first or progress in the development of a vaccine will attenuate or eradicate this pandemic ?
That would already appear to be the case. At this stage the vaccine is aspirational.
lots of dark areas around this virus. he doesn't react in a natural way. for this it will take time to find a kinetics of its propagation on a global scale.
I think it will be less than the previous wave due to the early precautionary measures and the emergence of a vaccine in several countries.
The evidence from around the world is that the second wave carries a lower mortality rate per perosn infected than did the first wave. This probably reflects a couple of factors: In the first wave, at least in the U.S.A. and some other developed countries, the infection disproportionately affected older persons, often in nursing homes, and they had a very high mortality rate. The age distribution in the second wave appears to be involving younger persons to a greater degree.
In addition, COVID-109 was a new disease and physicians had not yet accumulated experience with it. There have been several improvements in the treatment: management of respiratory distress and failure has markedly improved. The roles of monitoring pO2, using prone positioning, etc, before considering intubation have been elucidated. Drugs, such as dexamethasone for serious illness, have been shown to be effective. And many clinical trials are underway. It is likely that certain specific products will prove to be better than other similar ones - e.g., there are different monoclonal antibody preparation and not all are likely to be similarly effective.
Overall mortality, however, is not just a factor of deaths per person infected, but also of the number of persons infected. Looking at the epidemic curves in several countries, it is apparent that several involve a larger number of people in the second wave than in the first.
As everyone knows, many different vaccines are being tested. We do not know yet how well any of them works. And, initially, we probably will know mostly about the antibody responses they elicit - directly or indirectly - but will not know how effectively they prevent natural infection or how long they prevent it. They are not all likely to be equally effective, equally convenient to transport or store, etc, etc. Ultimately, they probably/hopefully will make a difference in population immunity, and the occurrences of epidemics should settle down. Personally, I think it is unlikely that SARS-CoV-2 virus will disappear. But, it could become a relatively minor problem over time.
The first generation of COVID-19 vaccines is expected to gain approval as soon as the end of 2020 or early 2021. A popular assumption is that these vaccines will provide population immunity that can reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and lead to a resumption of pre-COVID-19 “normalcy”. Given an initial reproduction number of around
which has since been revised to as high as about 4, and taking into account overdispersion of infections,
perhaps about 25–50% of the population would have to be immune to the virus to achieve suppression of community transmission.
Article What can we expect from first-generation COVID-19 vaccines?
اظن اصبحنا اكثر حذرا ويقظة في اتخاذ التدابير اللازمة للتعامل معه وان لم نستطيع التكهن بمايحصل له من تطور في الموجة الثانية
The first generation of COVID-19 vaccines is expected to gain approval as soon as the end of 2020 or early 2021. A popular assumption is that these vaccines will provide population immunity that can reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and lead to a resumption of pre-COVID-19 “normalcy”. Given an initial reproduction number of around
which has since been revised to as high as about 4, and taking into account overdispersion of infections,
perhaps about 25–50% of the population would have to be immune to the virus to achieve suppression of community transmission.
Article What can we expect from first-generation COVID-19 vaccines?
mostly second evoluted microorganism is more lethal
second wave is more serious than previous one, we should take efficient control measure and use PPE.
some factors such as a Black ethnicity, Asian and Hispanic individuals plus a higher prevalence of diabetes and cardiovascular disease are taken into account.
. Given the clustering nature of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, adjusting for testing positive would help to explain whether increased transmission between certain communities would be the reason for higher death.
in addition, populations, setting, treatment context, and reporting of ethnicity and outcomes resulted in high heterogeneity.
Article Ethnicity and clinical outcomes in COVID-19: A systematic re...
The second wave is more serious than previous one, we should take more protective measures.
actually the secondary waive is more lethal than primary wave
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