What methodology is being used to disaggregate cause from effect?
The problem is that we are dismissing all things as just weather events, e.g. intense hurricanes, exceptional wildfires. melting of Arctic sea ice and Himalayan glaciers. We know increased atmospheric carbon dioxide causes global warming, and that is happening. Global warming will cause those sort of events, so we have a cause and effects.
The obvious conclusion is that if we add more CO2 to the atmosphere these events will become even more severe. If that happens will you then accept the link?
Moreover, when that happens, then it will be too late to prevent even worse consequences!
I am not quote sure what "all things" does mean in your comment/question? It looks like you have a certain emotional content towards the fact that climate change is used as universal cause to blame. Well, certainly it is misused to some extent. It does not mean it is not a real cause for many things. Certainly not "all".
I do not quite understand your question. Are you concerned how climate change is attributed to a specific weather event? If it is the case my answer is following -
Climate change attribution study is quite complex and computation intensive study. With more and more carbon deposition on our atmosphere, we are expected see increased frequency as well as severity of extreme weather events. However, the distinction is hard to make because the change is quite slow and the process is probabilistic in nature.
For Attribution study, what is currently being done is thousand of simulations are performed for a single weather event. The simulations are performed with no carbon forcing first (The baseline) and then with carbon forcing (The Projection). Then from these thousands of simulations we try to find the probability of the atmospheric event to occur in both baseline and projection scenario. Comparison of these two distribution gives us a probabilistic quantification of how much of the climate event might related to climate change and how much is due to the internal climate variability.
Please search for Weather@Home project. You might find this interesting.
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