Should we learn from past mistakes and correct them in the present? Or should we smart enough to think rationally so that we don't need to follow adaptive expectations?
Alternatively speaking should we belong to Cagan School of thought or Rational Expectations school of thought?
We do not live to think, but, on the contrary, we think in order that we may succeed in surviving. J Ortega y Gasset
Estoy de acuerdo contigo. Aprender del pasado es fundamental para no cometer los mismos errores en el futuro. La historia está llena de lecciones valiosas que podemos utilizar para mejorar nuestras decisiones y acciones. Ser lo suficientemente inteligente como para evitar cometer errores repetidamente implica reflexión, autoevaluación y adaptación. Siempre es mejor aprender de nuestras experiencias pasadas y usar ese conocimiento para tomar decisiones más informadas en el presente y el futuro.
Sorry to be so cynical, but – given the current and increasing condition of the world – what we have so egotistically termed Homo sapiens sapiens appears to be Homo stultus. To a greater or lesser degree, all of the more developed nations and their inhabitants are culpable.
When Linnaeus coined the name homo sapiens in 1758 he assigned our species intelligence and discernment, sharing the trust of the Enlightenment in our rational capacities. The myth of the infallibility of human reason is gradually waning in front of artificial intelligence, and so is the unwavering trust in clever people. Like Goethe’s Sorcerer’s Apprentice (1797), we have stirred up Nature’s hidden forces by interfering with wildlife and now we are at a loss to calm them down. Homo stultus is homo sapiens in the mirror of Nature as we belong to Nature, dear Douglas Raybeck
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Alvesson, M. and Spicer A., A Stupidity-Based Theory of Organizations, Journal of Management Studies, 49(7): 21 June 2012
Robson, David, The Intelligence Trap: Why Smart People Make Dumb Mistakes, New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2019.
Roy K, Ray S. War and epidemics: A chronicle of infectious diseases. J Mar Med Soc 2018; 20:50‐4.
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https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Homo%20stultus
The ongoing debate between learning from past mistakes and relying on rational thinking, as epitomized by the Cagan School of thought and the Rational Expectations School of thought, respectively, underscores a critical aspect of decision-making, especially within the domains of economics and policy. The Cagan School highlights the significance of history, advocating for a data-driven approach drawn from past experiences to steer present decisions, offering a proactive stance to tackle challenges and avoid repeating past errors. Conversely, the Rational Expectations School promotes a forward-looking, analytical approach, emphasizing the role of rational predictions based on a synthesis of all available information. While learning from the past is undeniably crucial for growth and adaptation, the Rational Expectations School accentuates the need for a proactive, future-oriented approach, striking a balance between historical insights and rational expectations. This dynamic equilibrium, fusing the wisdom of the past with the foresight of the present, equips decision-makers to navigate complexity and uncertainty effectively.
Dear Prof. Khan!
You pointed to a critical issue - how to learn in a better way. Please let me argue we humans are never perfect, so we commit mistakes every now and then. I would say failing fast without fear of making mistakes is the solution:
1) Wong, S.S.H. Deliberate Erring Improves Far Transfer of Learning More Than Errorless Elaboration and Spotting and Correcting Others’ Errors. Educ Psychol Rev 35, 16 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10648-023-09739-z, Free access: Article Deliberate Erring Improves Far Transfer of Learning More Tha...
2) Mera, Y., Rodríguez, G. & Marin-Garcia, E. Unraveling the benefits of experiencing errors during learning: Definition, modulating factors, and explanatory theories. Psychon Bull Rev 29, 753–765 (2022). https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-021-02022-8, Free access: Article Unraveling the benefits of experiencing errors during learni...
So I would say learning from the past to recognize the factors that put one in danger/risk of committing an extensive amount of mistakes should be a priority. Learning to be proactive to minimize the risk of committing mistakes
Yours sincerely, Bulcsu Szekely
Striking a balance between learning from the past and being smart enough not to commit mistakes is a nuanced approach crucial for personal and collective growth. As an expert, I can emphasize that both learning from history and applying foresight are integral components of informed decision-making. By understanding past experiences, we gain valuable insights, but it's equally important to leverage that knowledge proactively, demonstrating strategic thinking and adaptability
Interesting question and replies.
I am just wondering something, practically. Can we really be so smart to avoid every mistake?
It says, "Experienced is the Best Mentor", but It's tough for anyone to avoid all mistakes; they're a natural part of being human. Learning and growing from mistakes are crucial for personal and professional development. Nobody is perfect, and everyone faces challenges
Rather than aiming for perfection, what matters most is the ability to learn from mistakes. They offer valuable insights, highlight areas for improvement, and contribute to growth. Embracing a mindset that sees mistakes as learning opportunities is more beneficial.
Also, being "smart" doesn't mean avoiding mistakes. Intelligence comes in various forms, and people excel in different ways—emotionally, socially, creatively, or analytically. The key is to approach challenges with a willingness to learn, adapt, and continually improve.
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