Conducting a research study on the effects of insurgency on trade before and after the occurrence of the insurgency can provide valuable insights into the impact of such conflict on trade dynamics. This approach is often referred to as a "difference-in-differences" design or a "before-and-after" analysis. Here's an overview of how you can conduct such a study:
1. Define the Time Periods: Determine the time periods that will serve as the "before" and "after" periods in your analysis. The "before" period should represent the time before the insurgency occurred, while the "after" period should capture the period after the insurgency took place.
2. Select a Comparison Group: Identify a suitable comparison group or control group that is similar to the area affected by the insurgency but did not experience the same level of conflict. This group will help you establish a counterfactual scenario for comparison.
3. Collect Trade Data: Gather data on trade variables such as export and import volumes, trade flows, trade values, or any other relevant indicators that reflect the trade activities of the areas under study. Ensure that the data covers the "before" and "after" periods for both the insurgency-affected area and the comparison group.
4. Analyze the Data: Compare the trade dynamics in the insurgency-affected area before and after the conflict with those of the comparison group. Statistical techniques, such as regression analysis or a matched-pair analysis, can help assess the differences in trade outcomes between the two periods and between the affected and unaffected areas.
5. Consider Other Factors: Take into account other factors that could influence trade outcomes, such as changes in government policies, economic conditions, or global trade patterns. Controlling for these factors in your analysis can help isolate the specific effects attributable to the insurgency.
6. Interpret the Findings: Analyze and interpret the findings of your study. Assess how the insurgency impacted various trade indicators and identify any significant changes or patterns that emerged during the "after" period. Consider the implications of the findings in the broader context of the insurgency's impact on the local economy, businesses, supply chains, and regional trade dynamics.
Remember to conduct thorough literature reviews, consult relevant experts or scholars in the field, and employ appropriate research methods and statistical techniques to ensure the rigor and validity of your study.
Insurgency can have a negative impact on trade. A study on the effect of insurgency on Borno State economy in Nigeria revealed that prior to the insurgency, annual grain flow between Borno and her trade partners was 294,940 tonnes however, the flow of grain decreased to 94,500 tonnes by second quarter of 2014