Secondary data following individuals across multiple years; covers an entire population with high level of accuracy. // Update: Looking at the data such that two methods appear to be more appropriate than anything else: survival analysis, and logistic (or related) regression. I think that the survival analysis is probably the best alternative.
Usually a SIRS model is used in modelling of disease spread. If you want to estimate flow rates between these compartments using longitudinal data, there are a family of statistical tests for "panel" data (I use Stata where they are the 'xt' commands). A simpler method would be to use a negative exponential regression model but it depends on the data you have.
Allen (and others): See above edit. Analysis choice seems that survival analysis is better suited to the events in question than anything else.
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