Is there any relationship between Oil price fall and ISIS exist?

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Imran Aslan

To say it, we need more data.But it affects oil price..how much?we need economical data...Using electrical cars, sun energy, biyoenergy, etc...are main reasons why oil prices decreases..oil is a dirty source of energy...

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/292869685_ANALYSIS_OF_OIL_PRICES_IN_IRAQ_AND_THE_ROLE_OF_OIL_IN_NATIONAL_AND_REGIONAL_DEVELOPMENT_Irak'in_Petrol_Fiyatlarinin_Incelenmesi_ve_Bolgesel_ve_kirsal_Kalkinmada_Petrolun_Rolu?ev=prf_pub

Conference Paper Analysis of Oil Prices in Iraq and The Role of Oil in Nation...

Zeravan Asaad

Dear Imran Aslan,

Thanks for your comment, also I read study done in Arabic language which make relationship between the fluctuation of oil price and Iraqi stock exchange main index, and they found connection between FDI, Stock Market, Macroeconomic factors with oil Price,

but my question is there any relationship between falling the oil price with terrorist group existed like ISIS?????, therefore just I try to find any study done or academic paper make this relationship whether found significance or non significance relationship.

Very weak, almost no effect.....Oil will not be used in 5-10 years in cars...but electricity...Look gulf war, Kuveyt war etc...analyze data of ıRAQ and World by regression....Rock oil, renewable energy sources have strong effect on oil prices...

Sidre Gül Bige Göcekli

If you read Daniel Yergin's book "The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power" you will see that wars and struggle in the oil field rich areas lead either unexpected rise or fall in the crude oil prices because of the nature of speculative activities in those periods. However, even if we cannot prove it empirically, it is a known fact that the terrorist group ISIS have financed their organization through the sale of crude oil under the market price in black market, especially after they seised the Syrian oil fields thus leading an increase in oil supply in the market. Therefore, they played some role in the fall of crude oil prices even if it is minimal.

why oil price are decreasing sharply?

Dear Sidre, you analyzed logically, and as you said still I did not find any empirically evidence make connection between Oil Price (whether WTI or Europe Brent

) Fall and ISIS group exit yet, in addition when I checked the oil price time series before and after the ISIS announced officially in 1 April 2013, I noted some differences and we have to wait more in order to get some academic studies to produce and conclude empirically evidence about this connection between them.

To answer Imran Aslan: The crude oil prices are decreasing steadily because of the rapidly increasing exchange rate of dollar. There are a lot of studies covering this relationship and almost all of them found negative relationship between the crude oil prices and exchange rate of dollar in the oil importing countries. Also this relationship analyzed by Paul Krugman theoretically in his articles articles named "Oil and the Dollar" (1980) and "Oil Shocks and Exchange Rate Dynamics" (1983). You can reach the articles from www.nber.org. Links are here:

http://www.nber.org/papers/w0554.pdf

http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11382.pdf

Yes, But Oil is to be forbidden in Germany and Norwegian in cars.Rock oil usage is increasing...1983 year is too old studies...new dynamics are totally different...

Shale rock oil in US and tar sands in Canada increased the physical oil supply in the market leading a decrease in crude oil prices, however oil market is in close relationship with the financial market, via crude oil contracts, futures, etc. like brent ice contracts. Therefore speculation in financial oil market leads sharp changes in the oil prices, and the exchange rate of dollar affects the financial oil market by the actions of speculators with the hope of making quick cash, and also affects the physical oil market because international crude oil prices are determined in US dollars. Also shale oil became prominent around 2005 but the sharp decline in crude oil prices occured in 2014-2015. Thus, one can conclude that new supply of oil from US and Canada affected the crude oil prices but cannot disregard the ties of crude oil with the exchange rate of dollar.