I would like to share scientific opinions and evidence on the transition from lockdown phase 2 (reduced restrictive measures compared to the strict quarantine or phase 1) to free circulation (phase 3). Is it possible to estimate the best time for the passage between the various phases? Or is it based on approximate and contingent evaluations?
The moment of the transition from phase one to phase two was decided on the basis of two parameters, the scientific and the economic one. The same will happen for phase three but currently there is no homogeneous situation in the world compared to the pandemic and phase three will be seen in the first or second quarter of 2021 depending on whether a "second wave" occurs or not.
Hi Pietro Emanuele Napoli ,
In my opinion, this transitioning depends on a lot of variables such as the country, age groups and demographics, economic level of the country and region and the policy making and governance, etc.
Unfortunately, it seems that it is not possible for all countries to implement a solid and unified or common policies to transition due to the wide difference in demographics, population, economy and politics.
But generally talking and in theory, it appears that the best and safest time to transition through these phases is when an effective vaccine is available for all populations otherwise there would be intermittent resurgence of the epidemic again and again.
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