What do you mean the rise of Iran?  The total fanatical fear and hatred of Shias by Sunnis is apparently stronger than anything that Iran can do.

Just look at the ISIL and others attacks on Shias and their mosques, like this week in Yemen.

The fanatical fear of Iran led some states to support the war in Yemen that the KSA is stoking today.

Cause and effect here dates to when a small tribe called Saud took over nearly the entire Arabian Peninsula with the help of the ilk of the British back at the turn of the last century, don't you think?

The emergence of Iran as a regional and revisionist power in the Regional Security Complex of the Persian Gulf. I dare to think that Iran will try to become the regional leader. That's what I was trying to say.

I think this is better that you say any country want to rise its power and try to gain ability to have greater roll in the world politics. but the way that any country choose is important. Iran try to have good relationship with the big power in the word. then Iran is not revisionist power because Iran enter the biggest negotiation with big powers in history. am i right?  if china is revisionist power Iran is revisionist power. Iran try to have good relationship with GCC, But these country do not have Confidence to Iran. 

I don't think that there is a "rising Iran" as there is no "declining Iran." Geopolitically Iran will always be very important for the balance of power. In the immediate aftermath of the Islamic Revolution, as well as during Ahmadinejad's first mandate the Islamic Republic of Iran tried to expand its influence. There is no doubt that it had created a Shia geopolitics; but both in the 1980s, as well as in 2006-2009, it also understood that any attempt of power projection has its limitations, and not taking them into account can have serious consequences. One thing is clear though, if ignored or, worst, bullied or threatened, Iran can spoil any initiative for regional stability be it a balance of power, peace conference or hegemonic push. I frankly don't see any GCC becoming a "real collective defense organization." Its US and UK arms and Saudi intervention in Bahrain first and now in Yemen. I don't see any real capacity, experience or strategic vision for such an organization. 

But they have a real and decided interest in exerting an influence in Yemen, Syria, Bahrein and...Spain. In Madrid Iran is funding a TV. So Iran wants to become a regional and perhaps a bigger power. The US withdrawal

I recommend you a Kenneth Waltz's paper "Why Iran Should Get the Bomb?" (Foreign Affairs, 2012). It is a very strong argument about the balance of power among the Middle East powers. 

I''m not for Iran nor Saudi Arabia getting the bomb (but the world needs to prepare for this), but the paper of Waltz is worth reading--if only to argue with.

| live in Oman, the country in the Middle East that has strong relations with both Iran and Saudi Arabia.  I would think that other nations need to follow Oman's lead and oppose Shia or Iran fearmongering.  (It was absolutely ridiculous that Saudi Arabia could play the Iran card in its recent catastrophic attacks on Yemen.)

The tone needed in the Middle East is a more neutral one and one of teamwork.  Again, look at Oman and how it handled the invasion of Bahrain and the invasion of Yemen.

Oman breaks from GCC on Yemen conflict - Al-Monitor: the ...

www.al-monitor.com/.../oman-response-yemen-conflict.html

Al‑Monitor

May 7, 2015 - Oman sees Saudi Arabia's strategy in Yemen as misguided and ... Qaboos' traditional foreign policy of maintaining respectful relations with all ...

Oman defends its 'neutrality' in Yemen conflict | GulfNews.com

gulfnews.com/.../oman/oman-defends-its-neutrality-in-yemen-...

Gulf News

Apr 11, 2015 - Muscat: Oman's foreign minister has defended his country's position to remain neutral in the ongoing conflict in Yemen saying there were ...

Alberto, excellent question.  The rise of Iran coincides with those areas that are populated with a large Shia population: Lebanon, Bahrain, Yemen, and Iraq.  For example, the Iranian influence in Iraq was palpable during my 2007-2008 tour in the Karadah Peninsula, Baghdad.  The entire area surrounding the Green Zone was being repopulated, using force, by the Iranian security forces in a successful bid to build a Shia enclave.  The Badr Corps and Quds forces had free reign during the American occupation since the al-Qaeda problem was paramount. Only later did Muqtada al-Sadr's Jayish al-Madi Army change the Coalition Forces perspective. The ramifications are now apparent as the Maliki reign so clearly demonstrated.

The overt Iranian influence in the Maliki government led to the rise of ISIS.  The delicate balance between democracy and autocracy was lost once the United States pulled out of the country.  With little to gain from a continued Shia-dominated government, the Sunni minority began to look elsewhere for support.  ISIS fit the Sunni needs perfectly, for now.    

The Iranian hegemonic vision has been in full bloom since 1979.  Other than 9/11, two of America's worst terrorist attacks - the Beirut Marine Corps barracks and the American Embassy bombings - were orchestrated by the Iranians. Today, as the United States recedes from the Middle East the conflict is now between the Saudi's and Iran for dominance in the region.

In answer to your question, the Iranian influence has already changed the balance of power.  A coalition of GCC States is engaged in a covert conflict with Iran that will dominate the region in the near future.  The Saudi's spread a militant form of Sunni Wahhabism to regions like Pakistan is an attempt turn the tide against Shia influence. This is a potentially ugly conflict that harkens back to the Sunni-Shia split, an animosity that is unlikely to recede, especially if the Iranians become a nuclear power.  Remember, Sunni Pakistan already has a nuclear capability along with strong ties the Saudi ruling family. It is hard not to believe a nuclear race will ensue once the Iranians own the bomb.

P.S. A great source of information concerning the Sunni-Shia conflict can be found in anything written by Vali Nasr, Ronen Bergman or Hooman Majd.  Good Luck.

My lse paper on gcc union discusses military, strategic and political limitations of the gcc

Dear Neil Where could I get your paper?