Climate change is a long-term and continuous phenomenon, associating a short-term and discrete event to it would entail a lot of uncertainties. Though it's true that climate change effects are felt locally and therefore could be best observed locally as well, it has a clear association with the global climate change. I wouldn't draw any conclusion from such a discrete event and would rather subject it to a long term study. First of all, there are defined extreme precipitation indices that can be computed from the daily precipitation observation and would give you a long term database of extreme events. Please follow the link: http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/list_27_indices.shtml. If you have the historic database for 50 or more years, these indices calculation would enable you to purse a long-term temporal trend analysis and answer your question whether or not this is associated to climate change. The association with the temperature rise could also be check and probably would help in estimating at unmeasured space and time. I have dealt with similar problems in my recent research about Bangladesh climate (not so far from your study area). You may have a look if you are interested:

1. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233794993_A_Comparison_of_Bangladesh_Climate_Surfaces_from_the_Geostatistical_Point_of_View?ev=prf_pub

2. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235995555_Temporal_Patterns_of_the_Two-Dimensional_Spatial_Trends_in_Summer_Temperature_and_Monsoon_Precipitation_of_Bangladesh?ev=prf_pub

3. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/241689448_Space-Time_Variability_of_Summer_Temperature_Field_over_Bangladesh_during_1948-2007?ev=prf_pub

And there are also papers about early monsoon arrival, for example:

1. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0442%282002%29015%3C0386%3ARSOTAP%3E2.0.CO%3B2

2. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-997-0022-0.

Hope that helps.

Article A Comparison of Bangladesh Climate Surfaces from the Geostat...

Article Temporal Patterns of the Two-Dimensional Spatial Trends in S...

Chapter Space-Time Variability of Summer Temperature Field over Bang...

Thanks Dr. Avit for your reply. Yes long-term data series are available and climate indices will be calculated. I will certainly look into your work and see what can be done.

I am open to views and comments from vast number of scientists on this esteemed forum. It may be a single event but considering the catastrophic effect on mankind and environment it has brought in, it is time to look in to our data archives.

I express my thanks to all scientists/climatologists in advance and look forward for their advice.

Linking a single severe event to climate change/variability is indeed tempting, but it is not scientifically sound. From a climatic perspective, a more appropriate question would ask whether the **frequency** or **probability** of such an event is increasing or decreasing given global warming for instance.

Agreed Dr Robert Tardiff.

We have to examine extreme events in great detail over India.

not only in India but also in Indonesia, rainy season extend. it could be climate change, but still need scientifically data

I think that it is difficult to tie any one event with climate change or, even if a sequence of events is "abnormal, to attribute it to either GHG increase or natural oscillations of the climate system. Yet, it is tempting to think that there are changes when one looks at the 201, 2011 and 2012 flooding events in Pakistan, next door to Uttarakhand State. (2013). We understand the weather patterns that have brought these four events on. And they were highly predictable 8-10 days in advance with 80% probability of exceedence (at 8 days) of mean +1 sd for the three Pakistan floods and +2sd for the Uttarakhand floods.

I do think that, whereas we should keep climate change in mind, that we should work hard on mitigation of current hazards. Good forecasting (e.g., ECMWF) and incorporating the rainfall forecasts into flood models and using this combination as the basis of a disaster reduction system should perhaps be our high priority.

Peter W

Its true that a single event can't be attributed to climate change, but actually, it could be an event among a series of extreme climate events that are happening in the Himalayan Region. I am from Nepal and had performed a study in flood and extreme climate events in eastern Nepal. The trend analysis results obtained from RClimDex showed an increasing trend of extreme precipitation and temperature, high intensity rainfall over short period of time, etc. Also, Global Circulation Models (GCMs) project a wide range of precipitation changes especially in the monsoon: -14 to +40% by the 2030s and increasing -52 to +135% by the 2090s for Nepal. Nepal Climate Vulnerability Study Team (NCVST), 2009 also revealed that under median climate change projections, the flood impact on each household would double and the number of households affected directly would increase by 40%. Similar results are found in India as well.

Thus, it can be said that the Hindukush Himalayan range is vulnerable to climate change, but still, concrete scientific analysis is needed, together with the efforts to cope with climate change and disaster.

Thanks Dr Ranjana for your comments and suggestions. Yes comprehensive study is very much required.

Perhaps we need to look at the Standing Highs also to understand the behaviour of monsoon winds. High pressure areas which are relatively motionless. Usually it is found over Afghanistan. Some years ago, it moved a bit towards Russia. And there was similar flooding in Pakistan. I don't have the data to disprove this hypothesis.

Unfortunately, I find very little literature on the subject. Meteorologists seem to be considering only low pressure areas - especially those which move a lot more in time to understand wind patterns.

The other axes that I would like to grind are -

1. Not taking into consideration the summer temperatures of Tibetan Plateau, in spite of clear evidence that it has an influence the monsoon over Indian plate.

2. Not taking into consideration the evidence for a tendency for higher precipitation after new moon and full moon. (Actually, I think it is more related to the charged particles in the upper atmosphere and the magnetic field that is responsible rather than the moon itself - which merely modifies the factors).

Thanks for your suggestions. It is true we concentrate on some selected parameters completely overlooking many other atmospheric features which may have influenced such type of catastrophic events.

http://www.cseindia.org/userfiles/Dobhal.pdf

http://crossasia-repository.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/3530/1/Himalaya%20Climate%20Change.pdf