For the 2014 southwest monsoon rainfall over South  Asia has been developed through an expert assessment of the prevailing global  climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the  world. There is strong consensus among the experts about the possibility of evolution of an El Niño event during the summer monsoon season. However, it is recognized that there is uncertainty in the intensity of the El Niño event. There is also consensus about the potential for adverse impacts of El Niño on the monsoon rainfall over the region. However, other regional and global factors also can affect the monsoon rainfall patterns over the region.

I have been looking for monsoon predictions analogous to the Climate Outlooks that are done (for example in the GHACOF region in the horn of Africa). That is, from 1 to 3 months before the monsoon transitions, is the upcoming season projected to start early or late, be weak or strong, erratic, regular, or something else?

My interest comes from the perspective of coral bleaching, which is highly predictable now on the basis of anomalous sea surface temperatures (SST) (see NOAA bleaching pages), and these are predictable on the basis of ENSO, IOD and annual global temperature trends (mutliple sources). But in East Africa, the strength and transitions of the monsoon seasons (both southeast and northeast monsoons) also have a strong influence on anomalous SST - but I've been unable to find any predictions on the monsoon strength and onset (particularly applicable to the Asian monsoon onset in April/May each year).

Can anyone direct me to any such forecasts, or is anyone piloting this in a way that we can contribute to in terms of forecasting of impacts, e.g. coral bleaching in East Africa?

The major change in the atmosphere that impacts on the monsoon each year is the Pakistan-Arabia Dust Cloud, stronger than a Category 5 cyclone like GONU that you can see at http://www.ecoseeds.com/newGONU.html or http://www.ecoseeds.com/GONU3.html.

I have attached today's dust and monsoon cloud images so you can see how the Dust Cloud is currently blocking the monsoon flow. Global warming is helping the Dust Cloud get stronger this year compared to previous year, and if we track the daily Dust Cloud and monsoon cloud positions, may be able to predict droughts where the Dust Cloud occurs and floods at the eastern edge of the Cloud, where it stalls the monsoon moisture.

There is a circular system regarding the Dust Cloud, where it occurs, it causes drought, then that dries out the land which causes more dust to be blown into the atmosphere.

Both India and Pakistan need to start to work together to solve the Dust Cloud problem, otherwise both countries will be perennially plagued by massive droughts or massive floods each year.  The lands where the dust originates, need to be set aside as Ecological Restoration preserves, and the land revegetated with local native plants, to keep the dust from becoming airborne.

Covering the soils in western India and eastern Pakistan that are currently the source of the Dust Cloud, so the soil does not get airborne, especially with native plants that are hosts for the Psedomonas bacteria whose proteins are the nuclei for rain droplets.

Perhaps the budget for all of the military equipments, troops and bombs that are currently aimed at each country, that money could be better used to eliminate the common enemy that could eventually destroy both countries with floods and droughts, the Dust Cloud?

Thanks Craig - very interesting ... just seen your response, and looking into it!

Thanks all. I too thank Craig for bringing a new dimension in Monsoon variability which is quite thought provoking. I am working on this aspect within my official constraints of availability of time. It is open and I will like to invite researchers keen on Monsoon dynamics to look in to the posts of Dr Craig Dreman.

Regards.

Ashok Jaswal.

Dear David and Ashok,

Thank you for your kind words.

In addition to the Pakistan-Arabia Dust Cloud that has unfortunately invaded India this year, as today's dust image shows, looking at the Horn of Africa in the satellite cloud image, there are clouds forming over the vegetation, but not over the barren areas.

If you check water vapor images, you can see water vapor from the monsoon moving over these areas frequently, but clouds forming rarely. I am proposing, that these barren areas, in addition to being the home of the Dust Clouds, are also involved in changing the dew point, and the sun’s heat absorbed by the barren soils, is heating the air and causing the rain clouds not to form.

An easy fix to both the Dust Cloud problem and the sun's heat on barren soils changing the dew point, would be to replant and conserve the original perennial local native grasses, to keep the soil from getting airborne, and to insulate the soil, to cool the air temp. that does not allow for the formation of rain clouds. And at the same time, the area would have cooler overall temperatures, and carbon would be sequestered by the plant roots.

One positive look at today’s cloud images, you can see on the west coast of India the effects of what I suspect may be Pseudomonas producing vegetation forming clouds stretching many miles into the Arabian sea.

Dear Ashok and all,

Wanted to let you know that today a pocket is forming in the eastern leading edge of the Pakistan-Arabia Dust Cloud that indicates possible floods in the area where the pocket stalls the monsoon, like in the area of Nepal.  You can see the pocket forming and stalling the monsoon in today's images attached.  

Thanks Craig! It is quite evident from the imageries. So chances of heavy precipitation in east central India. 

My Pakistan-Arabia Dust Cloud observations over the years suggest that whenever the pocket image appears on the eastern leading edge of the Dust Cloud, this frequently indicates torrential rainfall and floods--similar to the radar hook-echo within a thunderstorm is used as an indicator of a potential tornado here in the USA.  And the longer the pocket persists with monsoonal moisture trapped within it, the longer the torrential rainfall can persist. 

Today there are a lot of monsoon clouds cover over India but not a lot of rainfall, and I am speculating that looking at today's image, it is a lack of Pseudomonas-host plants in India except for along the southwest coast and Sri Lanka--those Pseudomonas-produced clouds can be streaming from those locations and across the Arabian sea, all the way to Africa.

When I posted the image of the pocket in the Dust Cloud above, there were floods at the same time in the same areas of India, according to the news reports, like at https://www.cordaid.org/en/news/floods-india/

A new Dust Cloud pocket has forming today August 12, 2014 over NE India and Nepal, stalling the monsoon and indicating potential floods for that area, if the Dust Cloud pocket persists.  Images attached.

Thanks Craig. Model output is also showing heavy precipitation in next 2-3 days over South Central Himalayas, South Nepal, adjoining parts in North Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The question of having a proper study and documentation of your idea about monsoon onset and progress is still open.

Ashok Jaswal.

Thanks for your reply.  Could the Dust Cloud images that I have been attaching, be added as a new layer to the computer model that you currently use? Or the Dust Cloud image overlaid manually, and noting when a pocket forms?  Then there could be confirmation  of the  pocket in the Dust Cloud  matching torrential rainfall/flood areas?   Two cases of the Dust Cloud pocket so far this monsoon season, and the image has been correct once so far to predict floods.  The other image to watch for, is the north-south eastern wall of the cloud acting like the pocket, stalling the clouds and  causing floods. 

August 13, 2014 -- big pocket over Nepal and northern India persisting in the Dust Cloud today, with a lot of moisture in the area that may get caught and cause trouble?

Today, an interesting Dust Cloud image is present, not a complete pocket has formed,  but a Dust Cloud "canyon" is present that narrows down and may constrict and stall the monsoon moisture and cause floods?  

Today August 19, 2014, there is a report of a "weak monsoon" but what I am going to suggest in the future, is a strong Dust Cloud instead of a weak monsoon.  I think we have been putting the blame of droughts or lack of rain on the so-called weak monsoon, instead of the strong Dust Cloud causing the droughts and floods? 

Today on my question page at https://www.researchgate.net/post/Anyone_study_the_Pakistan-Arabia_Dust_Cloud_impact_on_cyclones_or_rainfall?  Dr. V. Vinoj, (from Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar) gave a link to his article on the Dust Cloud impacts at http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v7/n4/full/ngeo2107.html 

I believe that in the near future, the hourly Pakistan-Arabia Dust Cloud image and position will be as closely watched and taken into consideration for weather forecasts, as the traditional weather measurements are currently used?

Generally speaking, warming is more significant on lands than on oceans, leading to a stronger summer monsoon due to the enhanced thermal difference between the lands and the oceans. However, the increase in SST in the Indian Ocean over the past decades is larger as compared to the Indian sub-continent. This may result in a weakening summer monsoon in South Asia.

I think that the dust clouds and the anthropogenic aerosols over the subcontinent might be also important to the weakening of the South Asian Summer Monsoon.

If you watch the Dust Cloud-Monsoon battle this week at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/archive.asp?product=16kmgwvp&storm_identifier=IO912014 you can see how the Dust Cloud always wins.  Also, the  cyclone last week, Nilofar at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO042014 when the Dust Cloud kept the cyclone pinned in the Arabian sea for a week, looking like a bird or dragon holding the cyclone in its beak. when you view the Storm Relative 16 km Geostationary Water Vapor Imagery.

Dear colleagues, can I bring us back to this topic, as now is when the phenomenon I am interested in will occur. Does the (Pakistan?) Dust Cloud affect the long term strength and then shifting of the Indian Ocean monsoon from the present N/NE monsoon, through the intermonsoon doldrums, to the S/SE monsoon in April/May? Can anyone predict how strong or for how long this monsoon will be?

In the past, the monsoon was looked at as an entity by itself, and it was not known that the Pakistan-Arabia Dust Cloud has a major impact on the monsoon moisture movements, and where droughts and floods occur, for example.  You must overlay day-by-day the monsoon moisture over the Dust Cloud location, to make any predictions. 

hi Craig, so that means its really a day by day forecast that can be done. Or are there factors that can predict how extensive/frequent the P-A Dust Cloud might be in a particular year or season? Such as from conditions that affect the strenght/duration of surface winds, dryness of the earth's surface, how high the dust cloud may go, etc?

Thanks for your reply. It is not a day-by-day "forecast" as much as for a single day, as long as the P-A Dust Cloud covers a particular area, even with a cyclone pushing at its edge, the rainfall is unlikely to occur in the area covered by the Dust Cloud.

The main method to monitor the Dust Cloud is via http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/shared-bin/display_image.cgi?URL=/aerosol_web/globaer/ops_01/india/current.gif

My favorite images however, are created by Colorado State using Metrosat 7 and an image from December 30, 2014 is at http://www.ecoseeds.com/cyclone-12-30.gif showing the P-A Dust Cloud keeping the cyclone's moisture from making landfall in India.  These images are generated by Colorado State for cyclones at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/