Hiatus in global temperature rise for several years. No statistical significant rise since 1997 according to CRU. How many added years are needed before sensitivity should be downgraded?
Very little. Three of the four methods in the Knox and Douglass paper from the International Journal of Geosciences you attached yield results that are not statistically different from zero rather than negative as they imply. They also choose to only use six years of ARGO-only data to refute a pattern seen over the last 16 years using a much more extensive array (Lyman et al. 2010) published in Nature. Yes, there is a short-term flattening in the Lyman data as well, which is similar to the flattening from approximately 1994-1998. Decadal variability is a common feature of any climate record. Cherry-picking short pieces of records is poor science when addressing anthropogenic climate change. This variability is discussed in Lyman et al. 2010: "These uncertainties are large enough that interannual variations, such as the 2003–2008 flattening, are statistically meaningless." Knox and Douglass (2010) also mis-cited the results of Lyman et al. (2010). All in all, I doubt Knox and Douglass (2010) would have been published in a reputable journal and should be disregarded.
Your certainty is not shared with later publications. There has been no significant heat increase in the oceans since 2002-2003 according to the ARGO system . Why? And what does that imply for the energy balance? (see attached publication).
Very little. Three of the four methods in the Knox and Douglass paper from the International Journal of Geosciences you attached yield results that are not statistically different from zero rather than negative as they imply. They also choose to only use six years of ARGO-only data to refute a pattern seen over the last 16 years using a much more extensive array (Lyman et al. 2010) published in Nature. Yes, there is a short-term flattening in the Lyman data as well, which is similar to the flattening from approximately 1994-1998. Decadal variability is a common feature of any climate record. Cherry-picking short pieces of records is poor science when addressing anthropogenic climate change. This variability is discussed in Lyman et al. 2010: "These uncertainties are large enough that interannual variations, such as the 2003–2008 flattening, are statistically meaningless." Knox and Douglass (2010) also mis-cited the results of Lyman et al. (2010). All in all, I doubt Knox and Douglass (2010) would have been published in a reputable journal and should be disregarded.
Although there seems to be strong evidence showing that the long trend is that the oceans are indeed heating up. The question was "the missing heat": i.e. can it be shown (through observations not models) that the increase in heat in the oceans matches the "missing heat" in the atmosphere? The heat that should have been there according to the forcings in the models. To my knowledge, this has not been done - yet. (Will the ARGO system be able to present this?) So, if there is a discrepancy between the anticipated heat in the oceans (according to current understanding of the climate sensitivity) will this, again, imply that the climate sensitivity has to be revised? Or, are data too sparse yet for any such conclusions?
Here's another article on the topic, demonstrating that the warming is being transmitted into deeper ocean waters. From Balmaseda et al, 2013, GRL:
"The elusive nature of the post-2004 upper ocean warming has exposed uncertainties in the ocean's role in the Earth's energy budget and transient climate sensitivity. Here we present the time evolution of the global ocean heat content for 1958 through 2009 from a new observation-based reanalysis of the ocean. Volcanic eruptions and El Niño events are identified as sharp cooling events punctuating a long-term ocean warming trend, while heating continues during the recent upper-ocean-warming hiatus, but the heat is absorbed in the deeper ocean. In the last decade, about 30% of the warming has occurred below 700 m, contributing significantly to an acceleration of the warming trend. The warming below 700 m remains even when the Argo observing system is withdrawn although the trends are reduced. Sensitivity experiments illustrate that surface wind variability is largely responsible for the changing ocean heat vertical distribution."
Balmaseda et al (2013) show the continuation of heat transferred to deeper layers of the oceans. The results are largely in line with Hansen et. al (2005). (See link). I believe Hansen et al captures the main issues very well and gives a nice platform for a discussion of the missing heat. Most of the projections as well as model results given are consistent with the corresponding parts in the various later articles referred to in the answers given in this thread. One should remember though that the "hiatus" was not acknowledged in 2005. Depending on what number are used, there is an imbalance in the climate system of between 0.85 W/m^2 (Hansen et al 2005) and approx 1.2 W/m2 using updated number. This indicate heating in the "pipeline". But since the response time of the climate system is not known, then I would assume it is impossible to know whether the climate system is heating up as anticipated according to most models or if the excess heat simply radiates out in space. My point is that the heating rate of the oceans (including below 700 m) does not seem to be large enough to cover for the missing heat in the atmosphere and the imbalance in the climate system. Am I right in my reasoning here?
Being retired I do not have access to institutional libraries and hence can not check the temperature data that Hansen et al. have used in their paper that seems to show a rather continuous increase in ocean heat content. I just wonder how representative this data is in reality, because despite thousands on cruises around the world oceans, I find it highly questionable that the data is sufficiently representative for the entire global ocean.
The ARGO data on the other hand shows no increase in heat content: http://oceans.pmel.noaa.gov/
There is an other minor dilemma. It is said that global warming resulting from increasing greenhouse gases is due to increased infra-red back-radiation, Khiel & Trenberth et al in BAMS Vol. 78, No. 2, February 1997.
Now the interesting part is that infra red (heat) radiation is not capable of penetrating beyond a very thin layer at the surface of the oceans. In addition, this warming of the surface would only result in increased evaporation. So how could any additional heat penetrate deep into the oceans. A further very appropriate question would be, why this additional heat has all of a sudden decided to sink into the oceans during the past decade and a half? Too many unanswered questions???
This article agrees with me. No contribution to the energy budget from the oceans since 2005. Is it time to at least consider adjusting the climate sensitivity?
From Hamit Cans answer I conclude that the ECS and TCR values used in models, needs revising (downwards). The heat content in the ocean cannot explain the lower rate of warming recently.