Discussions about how to deal with demographic ageing and shrinking are taking place in increasing numbers of countries, especially in East Asia and Europe. Japan is my focus. So, is large scale immigration a solution to the perceived problems of ageing and depopulation in developed countries, but particularly in Japan and East Asia?
Dear Peter,
You may want to consult the following pieces on this issue:
- Five papers taking the form of a discussion on this very subject "Is immigration the answer to the aging problem in the lowest-low fertility countries?" in Genus, Vol 67, No 3 (2011), available online at: http://scistat.cilea.it/index.php/genus/issue/view/37/showToc
- Billari, F. & G. Della-Zuanna. 2013. "Cohort Replacement and Homeostasis in World Population, 1950–2100", Population and Development Review 39(4), pp. 563-585. doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00628.x
- United Nations Population Division. 2001. Replacement Migration. New York, United Nations, DESA, Population Division, ST/ESA/SER.A/206, available online at: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/migration/migration.htm
- Blanchet, D. 1989. "Regulating the Age Structure of a Population Through Migration", Population: An English Selection 44(1), pp. 23-37.
- Bourgeois-Pichat, J. & S.-A. Taleb. 1970. "Un taux d'accroissement nul pour les pays en voie de développement en l'an 2000. Rêve ou réalité?", Population (French Edition) 25(5), pp. 957-974
Hope this is somehow helpful!
Investment in fertility treatment is another interesting option that was recently modelled:
http://humrep.oxfordjournals.org/content/22/9/2471.long
Hello Peter
The question you pose suggests that population ageing is 'a perceived problem' that requires 'a solution.' This article (one of a series that focuses on Japan's ageing population) may offer some contextual insights about policies that have shaped Japan's demographics over the past 50 plus years? Any potential solutions proffered for Japan should probably reflect on the perspectives covered in this series of articles, in addition to conversing with some of the authors.
The Lancet, Volume 378, Issue 9796, Pages 1094 - 1105, 17 September 2011
What has made the population of Japan healthy?
Nayu Ikeda PhD a, Eiko Saito MSc a, Naoki Kondo PhD b, Manami Inoue MD c, Prof Shunya Ikeda PhD d, Prof Toshihiko Satoh MD e, Koji Wada PhD f, Andrew Stickley PhD a, Kota Katanoda PhD g, Tetsuya Mizoue PhD h, Mitsuhiko Noda MD i, Prof Hiroyasu Iso PhD j, Prof Yoshihisa Fujino PhD k, Tomotaka Sobue MD g, Shoichiro Tsugane MD c, Prof Mohsen Naghavi PhD l, Prof Majid Ezzati PhD m, Prof Kenji Shibuya MD a Corresponding AuthorEmail Address
Summary
People in Japan have the longest life expectancy at birth in the world. Here, we compile the best available evidence about population health in Japan to investigate what has made the Japanese people healthy in the past 50 years. The Japanese population achieved longevity in a fairly short time through a rapid reduction in mortality rates for communicable diseases from the 1950s to the early 1960s, followed by a large reduction in stroke mortality rates. Japan had moderate mortality rates for non-communicable diseases, with the exception of stroke, in the 1950s. The improvement in population health continued after the mid-1960s through the implementation of primary and secondary preventive community public health measures for adult mortality from non-communicable diseases and an increased use of advanced medical technologies through the universal insurance scheme. Reduction in health inequalities with improved average population health was partly attributable to equal educational opportunities and financial access to care. With the achievement of success during the health transition since World War 2, Japan now needs to tackle major health challenges that are emanating from a rapidly ageing population, causes that are not amenable to health technologies, and the effects of increasing social disparities to sustain the improvement in population health.
Hello Peter
I deal with this question in my recent paper 'The ageing of the Australian Population: triumph or disaster?' See section 8 'Mass immigration as a cure for ageing'.
The answer is that high levels of immigration can reduce the population's median age by a few years, temporarily, but at the cost of considerable population growth, including the addition of many more older people.
See http://researchbank.swinburne.edu.au/vital/access/manager/Repository/swin:37932
If we consider scenarios where the host population is experiencing very low fertility, high levels of immigration are particularly ineffective. They lead to a larger and older population than would a successful attempt to support higher fertility.
Dear Akira,
I appreciate your honesty and straightforward approach. The information about Dr Doko is fascinating and I'd like to know more about him for another project I am writing. Do you know where I can find any information about his life and work in English? I would be really grateful if you could point me in that direction.
As for Western Imperialism, to some extent I agree with your approach; but please do not hold those western people alive today responsible for the cruelty and arrogance of their ancestors. I believe that children shouldn't have to bear the burdens of their parents' wrongdoings.
For example, I was born in Kenya some 7 months after independence from Britain. Although my early life was within a post-colonial environment it has affected me positively, I believe. I take a life long interest in the complex relations between Britain and the non-western world, especially Asia and Africa. I hope that some of my work and life can help to resolve some of the difficulties that have been caused by colonialism. But I don't hold myself responsible for what the British government did in the four hundred and fifty years before my birth. Such a burden would be heavy indeed.
Now, some western people have an imperialist mentality still, but I think that is a product these days not of domestic culture, but neo-liberal capitalism. There are many people in Britain and elsewhere in the west who are working, even fighting, very hard to try to reverse out of the dead-end of imperialism. I know it is tempting, but please try to acknowledge that western societies are now very diverse and there are many western people who try hard to forge a new world that in future might be free of colonialist attitudes and behaviours.
Best wishes to you, and thank you once again for your comments. Very interesting and valuable to me.
Peter
Akira - you might be interested to read this article about Japanese workers: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11456778
Jon Stewart illustrates how those double standards are packaged in this clip, Akira: https://www.facebook.com/ontveg/videos/vb.165410476802426/10150526293925043/?type=2&theater
You may be interested in exploring this somewhat different approach to solving complex problems: http://aucklandconversations.e-cast.co.nz/auckland-conversations/details/123
I think that to some extend the challenges of shrinking over aging populations can be addressed through targeted immigration. Do allow selective immigration in fields where professionals / experts are required when own professional are not in sufficient numbers. Societies that are over aged have often challenges to have enough people in their working ages. This has not only severe challenges on labour markets, but on social security systems (e.g. old age pension systems) as well as these systems are funded by those who work, pay taxed and contributions to the social security institutions.
This is an interesting question, that I've just run across now. In the case of Japan, this is complicated by the meaning of being Japanese, which is not simply a matter of citizenship, but also an ethnic or racial identity. If I get Japanese citizenship, it is unlikely that anyone will actually see me as Japanese in Japan, although I have had friends in Japan state that they think this could change. Also, the decline in the Japanese population is not entirely viewed as a "problem". Many of my interlocutors in Japan have indicated that fewer people is a positive, not a negative. The problem lies in the transition from the current population of about 125 million to a projected population of about 45 million by the end of the century if nothing changes. Costs related to care of the elderly, and a variety of other issue, present daunting issues that are facing the government to relax, to some extent, immigration policies. This recent article of mine may be of some interest: http://bjwa.brown.edu/24-2/empty-houses-abandoned-graves-negative-population-growth-and-new-ideas-in-neo-rural-japan/
Dear Peter, as long as the issue of increasing fertility is not solved, migration can only maintain the population number and lower the average age. However, large-scale migration will lead to ethnic conflicts and may result in the replacement of one nation's population by the population of another nation.
I don't think so. The people migrating now will be old in the next say 20 years. So the best is to look for ways of improving life at home to avoid immigration.
If you're interested in the demographics and economics of ageing and declining populations, please see this discussion paper:
https://population.org.au/discussion-papers/ageing/
It will explain why large-scale immigration is counterproductive, costing more than the small extent that it can diminish ageing. Both population ageing and population decline have more benefits than disbenefits. They will require some structural adjustment of societies, but the pace of change will be more gradual than that caused by globalisation of manufacturing or the information revolution. I doubt many would notice.
Interesting question. In my opinion, there are (at least two) different aspects to this matter. 1) Are job market vacancies being adequately filled with the local population? In which sectors of employment is it yes and in which sectors is it not? It would be necessary to know if there is a need for labor immigration in each sector. In some European regions, some studies suggest that there is high unemployment because the local population is excessive for the employment that is generated. Or that there is a discrepancy between the quality of the employment that is generated and the labor expectations of the local population. 2) What is intended is that there is greater domestic consumption and for that it is necessary to increase the population residing in the country with the capacity to consume?
No, it is not. Large-scale migration may partly influence population numbers and "amend" ageing populations, but the effects are temporary, fragmentary and unnatural, many times even socially, politically and ethnically counter-productive... Finally, the national/local quality of life does not necessary depends on the rising numbers and young/economically active populations but much more on technological (and ethic) progress...
Migration is one solution to an aging and declining population.
The second solution is to encourage marriage and stability.
The most important solution to address population decline and aging is to increase childbearing.
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