• Certain studies have indicated that emission of droplets within short distance is possible in normal breathing or talking providing an argument for the possibility of a casual transmission by a non-symptomatic carrier (Anfinrud et al) however the actual viral load and the effective transmission rates weren't analyzed.

    Article Visualizing Speech-Generated Oral Fluid Droplets with Laser ...

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  • The cluster nature of Covid-19 has been observed multiple times (care homes, parties, workplace)
  • In the analysis of Covid-19 epidemiology in Heinzberg (Germany) epidemiologist Hendrik Streeck offered arguments that cluster development required more prolonged contact than a casual one-time exposure (https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/heinsberg-studie-und-andere-zum-coronavirus-wo-sich-die.2897.de.html?dram:article_id=474889)
  • P.3 is also in line with the previously seen character of SARS epidemiology of 2002/2003.
  • Taking this into account, wouldn't cluster nature itself be an argument for the more prolonged kind of exposure over an accidental, one-time casual contact? In other words, if casual transmission was indeed likely, wouldn't we see more smooth and uniform progression of the disease in the population? With over 3 months of data at this point the relation between the granularity of epidemiological spread and the transmission parameters of the disease can be investigated at this time.

    This is important because it may help in adjusting the policy to more effective control of the disease focusing on prevention of longer-time exposure and safety practices in "dense" environments (such as workplaces, nursing homes etc) rather than complete elimination of casual contact. For example, it's an established practice in many jurisdictions that after a mandatory quarantine of usually 14 days a person is deemed completely recovered and can return to their workplace or residence etc while there are indications that production of viral agents in non-symptomatic carriers can last considerably longer than that.

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