The nation that plays a major role in the past crisis is China, the main ally of the North Koreans, who try to persuade both sides not to raise the tension. China's interest in keeping North Korea away from conflict is for practical rather than ideological reasons - if there is a collapse of the North Korean regime, the eventual unification of Korea would result in a strengthening of North American influence in a region close to its border. Moreover, the outbreak of a conflict would almost certainly provoke a movement of refugees towards the Chinese territory, which the government of Beijing seeks to avoid.
Dear Dr. Artur Victoria , thank you very much for raising this interesting issue.
I am following this interesting question to know more about the issue.
Professor Beemnet Mengesha Kassahun
Thank you for your interest. Let me unveil a very strange coincidence: The fact of Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of a possible Third World War that could lead to the end of civilization, accusing the US of disrupting the global nuclear balance.
China's diplomacy has indeed been very useful in the seemingly successful meeting in Singapore between Pyongyang and Washington, D.C. and this would eventually lead to peaceful settlement of the tensions on the Korean Peninsular.
For now we can only assume it to be a success because at least the two "old enemies" had a successful face-to-face meeting to address their differences. This in itself is a very important first step as they both acknowledged overcoming several obstacles to make the meeting possible.
Frankly, it may not be wrong to assume that without the influence of China the meeting wouldn't be possible: within a period of 40 days Kim visited Xi twice. Just a few days to the June 12 meeting, a host of high level officials were seen all over the PRC. What else were they looking for, if not for Beijing's assurances and guarantees.
Though there are still a lot of hanging bridges along this particular diplomatic journey, the journey would be much more easier if all the necessary parties would stay on a common course.
For now however, we cannot say there has been a successful peace agreement. The Sentosa Island meeting is just the first step. The Six Parties would have to do more.
The US should stop making noise about threats, sanctions, and the so-called maximum pressure: it was not these things that led to the summit.
The CIVID they are seeking in a rush by the end of 2020 is just an aspiration. They should be realistic and make room for broad consultations and negotiations.
Philadelphia, PA
Dear Victoria & readers,
A good question --and you already have several good answers.
I would say that the state of U.S.-China relations stand as crucial conditions in the background of the recent summit meeting in Singapore.
China has several good reason to want to avoid a conflict on the Korean peninsula. For example, they don't want big problems and continued saber-rattling in the immediate neighborhood, they don't want a stronger U.S. presence in East Asia, and they don't want to be deprived of the U.S. market for their exports--something threatening and especially if they were to come to the aid of N. Korea in a conflict with S. Korea and the U.S.
But consider also the "Chinese model" of economic development --under strict control of the centralized state and its political ideology. Consider the very few countries in the world which would be plausible candidates for following the Chinese model. The peaceful and successful economic development of N. Korea would, it seems, be a feather in China's cap. Yet in the West it might be viewed as a means toward eventual reunification of Korea and moderation of the N. Korean regime.
H.G. Callaway
Dear Professor H.G. Callaway
Thanks for your very clear reply. I for the studies i have been making for some years about China and N. Korea relations (up and down) i can assure that there will never exist a reunification of north and south. However trade and controlled transit between both I believe that can exist in bilateral agreement from NK and SK.
About “"Chinese model" of economic development” i would be glad if you have a look in my article https://www.researchgate.net/publication/325763227_Chine_new_Geopolitics-One_Belt-One_Road
China believes it should be included in any negotiations on the change of its status and peacemaking on the Korean Peninsula. Also, as host and champion of the six-party talks, Beijing claims a diplomatic stake in the peace process and the issue of denuclearization .
This is a very good question. In addition to the excellent answers already given, there is a bit more to add.
Based on the articles in the print media such as the Guardian, it is necessary to suspend judgment on the role of China in the negotiations with North Korea. Obviously, the North Korean government has great respect for any suggestions made by the Chinese government. It is also obvious that the North Korean government wants to mend fences and restore normal relations with South Korea.
Dear Professor Dr. James Peters
Very good comment! Indeed the reunification of Korea peninsula is something that North and South wishes for a long time. I have been in SK for some time and US external policy pushed by Japan never wanted to open the way to the reunification by security reasons of Japan and the region.
China at the moment is developing economic diplomacy with some mega projects and the Korea is not the priority. Everybody knows that the TCM were not ready and it was impossible to launch against US. That was disinformation and speculation for media purposes
Your question includes a conclusion that peace was achieved. No major agreement was announced and we will have to wait for more clarity before reaching any conclusion.
This is a very interesting question that Chinese scholars also want to figure out. The big data analysis based on China's Internet can show the whole picture of this puzzle. I did this analysis, and my conclusion is that it is not important to answer your question with yes or no. The key is whether the North Korean will really change in the future.
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