To interject some reality into current U.S. government actions on NIH research overhead, I seriously doubt there are any biomedical research efforts of any useful quality in the US that could function on 15% overhead. This 15% idea sounds good to those who know little about research, but unfortunately it goes against facts, reason, logic, and law.
The various NIH requirements for accounting and many other compliance rules likely cost far more than 15%. Furthermore, buildings need to be heated, cooled and maintained. People need to be hired and managed. Cold rooms, warm rooms, and equipment need power and computing infrastructure. Most companies estimate their overhead on research as ~100%, and this is in fact the overhead charged at US National labs subject to lengthy DOE negations. So an enforced change to 15% NIH overhead would mark the end of quality US biomedical research as we know it now.
If the US remains a country of laws, then I predict that this 15% notion cannot happen any time soon. Legally this is an unconstitutional act as it changes congress appropriations and illegally breaks negotiated contracts for funded grants. If laws do not matter here, then Texas has thrown away billions for CPRIT and any meaningful cancer research will largely be done in other countries. Time will tell but statements made by current US leadership have not proven durable.
Near term, I guess that a 15% enforced overhead will mean the loss of our top scientists. This will cost the US many orders of magnitude more than the overhead they imagine saving somehow. Of course, this would also quickly end the pipeline from innovative research to products for US companies and be a boon to US competitors while losing billions in biomedical economy for the U.S. Perhaps money will speak if laws do not?
What do you think?