In the current year, what are the effects of the progressive process of global warming in your region, in your country, in your environment, in terms of local microclimate, etc.?
In the current year, what are the effects of climate change, the accelerating process of global warming in your environment, in your region, where you operate, in your country, in the surrounding natural environment, in nearby agricultural areas, in the city or countryside where you live, in terms of local microclimate, etc.?
For example, in the country where I operate during the winter season, during a period where for many previous decades of time there was usually snow and temperatures were minus temperatures reaching as high as 20-30 degrees Frost is during the current "winter" in February 2024 there are positive temperatures all over the country, even positive double digits. Hoteliers, owners of ski slopes in the Tatra mountains are reporting much lower interest in their services. Fruit growers fear the return of morning frosts, which would cause the buds of flowers, which appear exceptionally early on shrubs and fruit trees, to freeze. Beekeepers fear for their bees, which have begun to leave their hives unusually early. But these are not the only effects of weather anomalies, climate disasters, climate change, the process of global warming, which has been occurring with increasing frequency in recent years. The negative effects of the increasingly rapid process of global warming on the environment, on agriculture, on the economy as a whole, on human existence in cities and in the countryside are constantly increasing, and the scale of the negative impact of climate change is constantly growing. In the country in which I operate in the summer season in recent years there have been record high temperatures, increasingly persistent heat, longer and longer periods of drought, little rainfall and increasingly frequent forest fires. In some regions of the country, water supplies are already beginning to run out during periods when citizens are watering their gardens and flowerbeds, washing cars, filling swimming pools, etc. At that time, local authorities are recommending restrictions on the use of tap water and imposing periodic bans on the use of clean water from the municipal water supply for watering lawns, washing cars and filling swimming pools. On the other hand, financial incentives, i.e. subsidies for the creation of water reservoirs for rainwater collection, rainwater catchment systems and irrigation of gardens, lawns, green areas, etc. with the help of rainwater thus collected, are being introduced as part of the increase in the scale of economical water consumption. The scale of the negative effects of the ongoing process of global warming is increasing every year. In many regions of the world, due to the accelerating process of global warming, the productivity of agricultural crops in agriculture is declining, the number of pollinating insects is declining, green areas in cities are drying up, living conditions in urban areas are deteriorating, the demand for electricity is increasing, which is caused, among other things, by the increase in the scale of use of cooling equipment during summer heat waves, the level of biodiversity in areas of natural natural ecosystems is decreasing, etc. Therefore, it is necessary to accelerate the processes of green transformation of the economy, including green transformation of such economic sectors as energy, agriculture, transportation, construction, heavy industry, etc.
I am conducting research on this issue. I study in a multifaceted and interdisciplinary way the issue of factors, determinants of climate change, the increasingly rapid process of global warming, and the effects of these processes on the environment, on civilization, agriculture, the economy, etc. On the other hand, I analyze the possibilities of smoothly carrying out a pro-environmental and pro-climate transformation of the classic growth, brown, linear economy of excess into a sustainable, green, zero-carbon zero-growth and closed-cycle economy. By building a green, sustainable closed loop economy, it will be possible to slow down the still accelerating global warming process and reduce the negative effects of these climate change processes. Will it be possible to reverse these processes? Unfortunately, this is unlikely with the green transformation of the economy progressing as slowly as it is now, and the still low level of awareness of many citizens on this topic, ignoring the high level of relevance of this issue in the business and political world. I have included the conclusions of my research in the following article:
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PRINCIPLES OF SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT AS A KEY ELEMENT OF THE PRO-ECOLOGICAL TRANSFORMATION OF THE ECONOMY TOWARDS GREEN ECONOMY AND CIRCULAR ECONOMY
Article IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PRINCIPLES OF SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY DEVE...
In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:
In the current year, what are the effects of climate change, of the accelerating process of global warming in your environment, in your region, where you operate, in your country, in the surrounding natural environment, in nearby agricultural areas, in the city or countryside where you live, in terms of the local microclimate, etc.?
In the current year, what are the effects of the ongoing global warming process in your region, in your country, in your surrounding environment, in terms of local microclimate, etc.?
What do you think about this topic?
What is your opinion on this issue?
Please answer,
I invite everyone to join the discussion,
Thank you very much,
Best wishes,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
The above text is entirely my own work written by me on the basis of my research.
In writing this text I did not use other sources or automatic text generation systems.
Copyright by Dariusz Prokopowicz
Excelente iniciativa. Esta año en Bolivia comenzamos con tremendas inundaciones. La lluvia en febero fue intensa y solo es el comienzo. Llegó la hora de adaptarnos a esta realidad y en la medida de lo posible mitigar sus efectos. Para ello es imprescindible tomar conciencia sobre el tema que hasta hoy fue como un fenómeno de marketing. Considero que las COP no estan teniendo los resultados visibles y concretos que todo el mundo espera.
est une bonne question, pour nous l'Algérie, on est vraiment touché par les effets du climat sur toutes les cultures notamment les céréales et les cultures arboricoles, sous le Grand effet d'une année sèche sans pluie et avec des variations de température
West Africa:
Hotter temperatures with more extreme heatwaves threaten health and crops. More frequent droughts in some areas, while others experience destructive floods.
Rising sea levels erode coastlines and contaminate freshwater sources.
Food production becomes unstable, leading to shortages.
Competition for water and land increases, potentially fueling further conflict.
Nigeria :
The Sahara Desert spreads southward, turning fertile land into desert.
Coastal areas and major river systems face frequent flooding, damaging homes and infrastructure.
Rain-dependent agriculture is severely disrupted, threatening food security for millions.
Heatwaves and diseases worsen, straining the healthcare system.
Hi.
Between other effects of climate change in the Canaries, during the first months of this year, I have seen quite dry individuals of several plants that are very green in this season and even in summer, like Cytisus scoparius and Cupressus macrocarpa in the NE area of Tenerife Island. This reflects the lack of rain during this winter season, which is one of the driest winters in recent years.
Best regards.
In Central Canada we lost the cold weather this winter. There is hardly any snow (usually we get at least 1 m) and there is frequent fog covering the skies like a blanket with high humidity (very unusual for winter).
So, a lot of people are talking about the amazing changes to the weather.
In Italy in the last 2 years we have had average temperatures higher than those recorded forever. Floods in areas usually not affected by this problem, melting and retreat of glaciers at record levels, resulting in the drying up of many rivers and severe drought in the summer period in the Po Valley, a notoriously irrigated and productive area. I would add a situation of air pollution, at hazardous levels as can easily be verified in all the Italian newspapers of February 2024.
In Uganda, heat is unbearable and causing some small water sources to dry up hence reduction of diversity of most of the macro and micro invertebrates that live in these waters.
Extreme weather conditions: in January of this year certain areas in Davao Region have experienced high levels of rainfall which resulted in massive flooding and landslides
In my country, I am feeling that older trend for winter month, rainfall pattern and summer onset is changing. Suddenly there is rainfall, one day there is temperature of 29 degree, other day its 19 due to rain and cold winds. So there is no pattern at all.
Currently in Sierra Leone temperatures are higher both day and night due to the global climate change, which has resulted in profuse sweating and sleepless nights by locals who cannot afford air condition And this is having effects on biodiversity as a whole.
The toxic rhetoric of climate change
Posted on December 14, 2019 by curryja | 443 Comments
by Judith Curry
We have been hearing increasingly shrill rhetoric from Extinction Rebellion and other activists about the ‘existential threat’ of the ‘climate crisis’, ‘runaway climate chaos’, etc. In a recent op-ed, Greta Thunberg stated: “Around 2030 we will be in a position to set off an irreversible chain reaction beyond human control that will lead to the end of our civilization as we know it.” From the Extinction Rebellion: “It is understood that we are facing an unprecedented global emergency. We are in a life or death situation of our own making.”
It is more difficult to tune out similar statements from responsible individuals representing the United Nations. In his opening remarks for the UN Climate Change Conference this week in Madrid (COP25), UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said that “the point of no-return is no longer over the horizon.” Hoesung Lee, the Chair for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), said “if we stay on our current path, [we] threaten our existence on this planet.”
So . . . exactly what should we be worried about? Consider the following statistics:
§ Over the past century, there has been a 99% decline in the death toll from natural disasters, during the same period that the global population quadrupled.
§ While global economic losses from weather and climate disasters have been increasing, this is caused by increasing population and property in vulnerable locations. Global weather losses as a percent of global GDP have declined about 30% since 1990.
§ While the IPCC has estimated that sea level could rise by 0.6 meters by 2100, recall that the Netherlands adapted to living below sea level 400 years ago.
§ Crop yields continue to increase globally, surpassing what is needed to feed the world. Agricultural technology matters more than climate.
§ The proportion of world population living in extreme poverty declined from 36% in 1990 to 10% in 2015.
While many people may be unaware of this good news, they do react to each weather or climate disaster in the news. Activist scientists and the media quickly seize upon each extreme weather event as having the fingerprints of manmade climate change — ignoring the analyses of more sober scientists showing periods of even more extreme weather in the first half of the 20th century, when fossil fuel emissions were much smaller.
So . . . why are we so worried about climate change? The concern over climate change is not so much about the warming that has occurred over the past century. Rather, the concern is about what might happen in the 21st century as a result of increasing fossil fuel emissions. Emphasis on ‘might.’
Alarming press releases are issued about each new climate model projection that predicts future catastrophes from famine, mass migrations, catastrophic fires, etc. However these alarming scenarios of the 21st century climate change require that, like the White Queen in Alice and Wonderland, we believe ‘six impossible things before breakfast’.
The most alarming scenarios of 21st century climate change are associated with the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Often erroneously described as a ‘business as usual’ scenario, RCP8.5 assumes unrealistic long-term trends for population and a slowing of technological innovation. Even more unlikely is the assumption that the world will largely be powered by coal.
In spite of the implausibility of this scenario, RCP8.5 is the favored scenario for publications based on climate model simulations. In short, RCP8.5 is a very useful recipe for cooking up scenarios of alarming impacts from manmade climate change. Which are of course highlighted and then exaggerated by press releases and media reports.
Apart from the issue of how much greenhouse gases might increase, there is a great deal of uncertainty about how much the planet will warm in response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide – referred to as ‘equilibrium climate sensitivity’ (ECS). The IPCC 5th Assessment Report (2013) provided a range between 1 and 6oC, with a ‘likely’ range between 1.5 and 4.5oC.
In the years since the 5th Assessment Report, the uncertainty has grown. The latest climate model results – prepared for the forthcoming IPCC 6th Assessment Report – shows that a majority of the climate models are producing values of ECS exceeding 5oC. The addition of poorly understood additional processes into the models has increased confusion and uncertainty. At the same time, refined efforts to determine values of the equilibrium climate sensitivity from the historical data record obtain values of ECS about 1.6oC, with a range from 1.05 to 2.7oC.
With this massive range of uncertainty in the values of equilibrium climate sensitivity, the lowest value among the climate models is 2.3oC, with few models having values below 3oC. Hence the lower end of the range of ECS is not covered by the climate models, resulting in temperature projections for the 21st century that are biased high, with a smaller range relative to the range of uncertainty in ECS.
With regards to sea level rise, recent U.S. national assessment reports have included a worst-case sea level rise scenario for the 21st century of 2.5 m. Extreme estimates of sea level rise rely on RCP8.5 and climate model simulations that are on average running too hot relative to the uncertainty range of ECS. The most extreme scenarios of 21st century sea level rise are based on speculative and poorly understood physical processes that are hypothesized to accelerate the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. However, recent research indicates that these processes are very unlikely to influence sea level rise in the 21st century. To date, in most of the locations that are most vulnerable to sea level rise, local sinking from geological processes and land use has dominated over sea level rise from global warming.
To further complicate climate model projections for the 21st century, the climate models focus only on manmade climate change – they make no attempt to predict natural climate variations from the sun’s output, volcanic eruptions and long-term variations in ocean circulation patterns. We have no idea how natural climate variability will play out in the 21st century, and whether or not natural variability will dominate over manmade warming.
We still don’t have a realistic assessment of how a warmer climate will impact us and whether it is ‘dangerous.’ We don’t have a good understanding of how warming will influence future extreme weather events. Land use and exploitation by humans is a far bigger issue than climate change for species extinction and ecosystem health.
We have been told that the science of climate change is ‘settled’. However, in climate science there has been a tension between the drive towards a scientific ‘consensus’ to support policy making, versus exploratory research that pushes forward the knowledge frontier. Climate science is characterized by a rapidly evolving knowledge base and disagreement among experts. Predictions of 21st century climate change are characterized by deep uncertainty.
As noted in a recent paper co-authored by Dr. Tim Palmer of Oxford University, https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2019/11/26/1906691116.full.pdf, there is “deep dissatisfaction with the ability of our models to inform society about the pace of warming, how this warming plays out regionally, and what it implies for the likelihood of surprises.” “Unfortunately, [climate scientists] circling the wagons leads to false impressions about the source of our confidence and about our ability to meet the scientific challenges posed by a world that we know is warming globally.”
We have not only oversimplified the problem of climate change, but we have also oversimplified its ‘solution’. Even if you accept the climate model projections and that warming is dangerous, there is disagreement among experts regarding whether a rapid acceleration away from fossil fuels is the appropriate policy response. In any event, rapidly reducing emissions from fossil fuels to ameliorate the adverse impacts of extreme weather events in the near term increasingly looks like magical thinking.
Climate change – both manmade and natural – is a chronic problem that will require continued management over the coming centuries.
We have been told that climate change is an ‘existential crisis.’ However, based upon our current assessment of the science, the climate threat is not an existential one, even in its most alarming hypothetical incarnations. However, the perception of manmade climate change as a near-term apocalypse has narrowed the policy options that we’re willing to consider. The perceived ‘urgency’ of drastically reducing fossil fuel emissions is forcing us to make near term decisions that may be suboptimal for the longer term. Further, the monomaniacal focus on elimination of fossil fuel emissions distracts our attention from the primary causes of many of our problems that we might have more success in addressing in the near term.
Common sense strategies to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather events, improve environmental quality, develop better energy technologies and increase access to grid electricity, improve agricultural and land use practices, and better manage water resources can pave the way for a more prosperous and secure future. Each of these solutions is ‘no regrets’ – supporting climate change mitigation while improving human well being. These strategies avoid the political gridlock surrounding the current policies and avoid costly policies that will have minimal near-term impacts on the climate. And finally, these strategies don’t require agreement about the risks of uncontrolled greenhouse gas emissions.
We don’t know how the climate of the 21st century will evolve, and we will undoubtedly be surprised. Given this uncertainty, precise emissions targets and deadlines are scientifically meaningless. We can avoid much of the political gridlock by implementing common sense, no-regrets strategies that improve energy technologies, lift people out of poverty and make them more resilient to extreme weather events.
The extreme rhetoric of the Extinction Rebellion and other activists is making political agreement on climate change policies more difficult. Exaggerating the dangers beyond credibility makes it difficult to take climate change seriously. On the other hand, the extremely alarmist rhetoric has frightened the bejesus out of children and young adults.
JC message to children and young adults: Don’t believe the hype that you are hearing from Extinction Rebellion and the like. Rather than going on strike or just worrying, take the time to learn something about the science of climate change. The IPCC reports are a good place to start; for a critical perspective on the IPCC, Climate Etc. is a good resource.
Climate change — manmade and/or natural — along with extreme weather events, provide reasons for concern. However, the rhetoric and politics of climate change have become absolutely toxic and nonsensical.
In the mean time, live your best life. Trying where you can to lessen your impact on the planet is a worthwhile thing to do. Societal prosperity is the best insurance policy that we have for reducing our vulnerability to the vagaries of weather and climate.
JC message to Extinction Rebellion and other doomsters: Not only do you know nothing about climate change, you also appear to know nothing of history. You are your own worst enemy — you are triggering a global backlash against doing anything sensible about protecting our environment or reducing our vulnerability to extreme weather. You are making young people miserable, who haven’t yet experienced enough of life to place this nonsense in context.
Recently a review of two books revealed the need for the people of Africa to step back from what is a developed world neurosis. One of the book’s is by Bjorn Lomborg:
In poor countries, higher energy costs harm efforts to increase prosperity. A solar panel, for instance, can provide electricity for a light at night and a cell phone charge, but it cannot deliver sufficient power for cleaner cooking to avoid indoor air pollution, a refrigerator to keep food fresh, or the machinery needed for agriculture and industry to lift people out of poverty. Countries in the developing world need cheap and reliable energy, for now mostly from fossil fuels, to promote industry and growth. Not surprisingly, a recent study of the consequences of implementing the Paris Agreement showed that it will actually increase poverty.
We need to be aware that when we insist, as part of foreign aid packages, that the developing world align with our climate priorities, we are enacting a kind of imperialism. We are not listening to what the citizens of these countries want. We are jeopardizing their opportunity to lift their populations out of poverty for the sake of our own concerns. This isn’t just bad policy. It’s grossly unethical.
In present day Sierra Leone international partners are seeking to co-facilitate action plans towards addressing climate change, for my region much is not been done currently in addressing that.
Kenya has put in place a climate change policy that attempts to prepare the country to deal with effects of cc. The same is cascaded to small units in the form of counties.
The drought, less rainfall and desertation are most important for global warming in Iraq
In india we are witnessing a lot of symptoms of global climate change.
1. Altered weathered conditions (somewhere it's flooding., somewhere it's drought)
2. No snowfalls in the hillstations.
3. Humans being more prone to diseses like heat stroke, Heart related problems, skin related problems.
There are so many cure we know to overcome global climate change but it's important to apply them on our daily life rather than just reading them only theoretically.
Climate variability is the norm - with slight warming. The fundi is
https://judithcurry.com/
Well, Russians attempts to freeze Europe into submission by cutting natural gas supplies before winter did not work out specially well due to series of rather warm winters recently. Based on energy prices previous winter was highly nervous, in this one no-one even remembers that they used to blackmail us.
Setting this aside generally enjoying lower heating bill though being slightly annoyed about lack of snow...
an important change in fish habitats, most species tend to migrate to greater depths in search of ideal temperatures.
Early flowering and fruiting in many plants.
1. Early flowering in Rhododendron arboreum.
2. Early fruiting in Myrica esculenta
Both the things have been observed in Uttarakhand Himalaya.
In Southern Nigeria, the heat experienced from late January to May 8 as I am replying to this discussion is extreme.
1) Heat rashes all over the body
2) planting crops rotted away while waiting for the rains
3) Late rains
4) heat related sickness like sunstokes was also experienced
In Iran, two months have passed since the new year. Unbelievably this year, even desert cities have experienced floods and damage to infrastructure in the past two months, when even rainfall rarely occurred in the past. This could be caused by global warming.
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