Assuming all the variables are I(1) and your objective is to find a long-run relationship, VECM is generally used. Please note that "all variables are stationary at I(1)" is not apposite.
I have two variables non stationary at level and non stationary at first difference, so i transform the data to first difference, and they became stationary at level. Can I perform VECM model with those two variables. Thank yo
If all your variables are l(1) you can either differentiate them and then use any model suitable for your research question (panel, ARMA, VAR,.....). Or you can take advantage of this integration and use the cointegration and VECM model that gives you the long and short run relationships.
Nabaraj Gautam asks about "variables are stationary at I(1)". As Thomas Dimpfl states there is no such thing as variables that are stationary at I(1). There is also no such procedure as "Johnson & Julious Cointegration". Perhaps he means the Johansen routines to test for cointegration and estimation of cointegrated vector autoregressions (VECM)
Hammache Souria asks "I have two variables non stationary at level and non stationary at first difference, so i transform the data to first difference, and they became stationary at level" My understanding of her question is that she has variables like X(t). X(t) is non stationary and its first difference X(t)-X(t-1) is non stationary, Now she appears to examine Y(t)=X(t)-X(t-1) which she finds stationary at level. This is a contradiction. Perhaps I have not understood.
David Eugene Booth If this is an exam question I don't think much of the examiner.
My advice to Nabaraj Gautam and Hammache Souria is that they should get a good textbook and try to understand the concepts of stationarity, non-stationary, integrated, and cointegrated series. There is a lot more to understanding these matters than could be answered on a forum such as this. I usually recommend Enders (2014) Applied econometric time series, Wiley to economists who wish to be familiar with time series. It is a nice compromise between applied time series and theory. There are several graduate-level texts that provide additional material that may be needed.
The following points are non-rigorous and are intended as a guide
All these studies should be based on a theoretical economic model. It is the purpose of economics to determine this model. Econometrics is used to verify that the model and data are consistent and to estimate the model.
An economic time series can be decomposed into two parts. the first is a deterministic part and the second is a stochastic part.
If the probability distribution of the stochastic part remains constant then the series is said to be stationary. (sometimes we only require that the mean and variance of the stochastic part be constant). The validity of most traditional time series econometric methods requires that series are stationary.
If the probability distribution of the stochastic part varies then the series is said to be non-stationary. (sometimes we only require that the mean or variance of the stochastic part vary). Thus it is difficult if not impossible to know anything about a non-stationary series from its past.
A non-stationary series X(t) is said to be integrated of order 1, denoted I(1), if its first difference (X(t) - X(t-1) ) is stationary. (Such a series is said to contain a unit root). If a series, Y(t) is non-stationary then a function, f(Y(t) ) is also non stationary. For example, it is often found that log(real GDP) is non-stationary but is I(1). It follows that ( real GDP ) is also non-stationary and is not I(1).
If the first difference is not stationary but the second difference is stationary the series is said to be integrated of order 2, denoted I(2).
It may happen that 2 I(1) variables contain different levels of the same stochastic I(1) component. Thus subtracting a multiple of one variable from the other will give a new variable with the I(i) component eliminated. Such variables are said to be cointegrated. This combination should be suggested by economic theory and the finding of cointegration is a verification that the data is consistent with theory.
There are a variety of unit root tests that are used to test if variables are I(0), I(1), or I(2). You will read a lot about ADF tests. DF-GLS tests are more powerful. There are a variety of other tests. It may also be possible that there are breaks in your series that are causing erroneous results.
There are several ways to estimate systems involving non-stationary series. Univariate systems include Engle-Granger, DOLS, and ARDL, The Johansen method is the main multivariate method. If I am asked which method is appropriate I will always ask what economic model are you trying to estimate. What data do you have? You can only use univariate systems when there is only one cointegrating relationship and certain exogeneity conditions are satisfied. Johansen probably requires more data but you can test the exogeneity requirements and revert to a univariate method if required.
If this sounds complicated it is. You may also find that your software does not cover all that you wish to do.
@john frain students have been known to copy incorrectly. Don't blame the examiner just yet. If the stationarity condition was correctly written would you see any possibilities. I did my last time series model work many years ago but a multiple choice question on research methods seems strange don't you think? David Booth
Unless of course it is a methods course exam. Best wishes to all.
David Eugene Booth If the stationarity condition was correctly written, the logic of my answer would be similar to 9 in my previous answer. You need to know the context to answer the question. Sometimes Johansen would be best, other times a combination of Johansen and ARDL (bounds test) and on other occasions, I might use ARDL. If there was a previous part to the question it might help. Take Care, John
Anis UR Rehman Your video does not even mention I(1) variables. Applying the methods in the video to I(1) variables will lead to spurious results in the absence of cointegration. There is also a mention of the stepwise regression. Stepwise regression is not a valid method of finding an appropriate regression as it usually leads to the wrong results.
Nabaraj Gautam If all variables are non-stationary at level but stationary at the first difference I(1), then Johansen cointegration and VECM model are used to determines the long-run and short-run relationship respectively.
Hammache Souria If two variables are non-stationary at level but stationary at the first difference, then Johansen cointegration and VECM model are used to determines the long-run and short-run relationship respectively.
If all the variables are stationary in the same order then it is theoretically suggested to use the Johanson Co-integration test instead of ARDL bound test for cointegration. But, it is not wise to use VECM if there is no co-integrating equation in the model. You can use ECM when you intend to find out the long-run relationship.
If all variables are stationary at the first difference I(1), then the vector error correction model (VECM) is a good choice for modelling the relationship between the variables. The VECM is a dynamic model that allows for both short- and long-run relationships between the variables.