The red line will surely be touched and new concepts of political economy are needed to cope with this humanitarian problem. Technology is meritocratic, but there will be winners and loosers; human learning/teaching can be revolutionized and serve as a public gateway to form this new tech-know-logical civilization. Concerning business strategy, I see  a strong relationship with IoT; Peter Drucker coined the term knowledge worker already in the 1950s.

This will result in social chaos, leading directly to Civilization Collapse.  Few social elites have worried about keeping the masses employed - the Pharaohs, perhaps? 

Yes, the (global) economic rentier elite class is not aware of the coming social effects, concerning the exponentiation of the production function, in the next 2 decades. In addition, the classical tools of political economic thought have not been further developed, concerning knowledge automation, human labor and natural ecology. It is also not sure that the social innovation of a basic income guarantee or dignity voucher can cope with this civilizational chaos; meaningful work and fulfilling labor seem to have cultural importance, beyond the 'earning of money'. In any case, more strategic intelligence is needed to communicate with this dominating tech-know-logical tendency.

Idle hands, combined with informed demogery, will result in disruptive rebellions, setting back human progress by several generations. 

Socio-economic macro-prudence for this global tendency of exponentiality (in manufacturing, finance, medicine) is missing. There is a real (Sisyphean) danger of human regression; even industrialization followed a geometric curve, giving a mass of people new opportunities of living chances. Human systems evolution can be shaped, but economic thought must be alert to rapidly changing conditions of production, concerning exponential knowledge automation.

Dear @Stephen, this is fine resource for your research!

KNOWLEDGE AUTOMATION -  How to Implement Decision Management

in Business Processes?

Many thanks, dear Ljubomir ! Alan Fish makes me wonder, who  these decision-makers, business leaders and policy experts will be, given the human responsability that rests on their shoulders. Decision science has already developed into a discipline, but management as universal social function will become even more important as Peter Drucker opined in the 1950s.

Dear Stephen: As C. Wright Mills pointed out many years ago; the Super-Rich now rely on smart/ambitious people to manage their assets and institutions.  There is little hope from all these self-centred tribes that they will act in the public interest: almost never have done so, thus are unlikely to begin now. 

Power structure research will be a cornerstone of this scientific project, dear Herb. It is a social fact that alternative roads to serfdom are being paved by highly qualified intellectual laborers, in need for jobs (access to money). The power physics of the socio-economic system is based on the privatization of key resources; social processes are (bio) physical events, e..g. a lot can be learned from the behavioral structure of ant colonies or bee keeping. A natural science of human society  analyzes the physical jackpot of human living chances from the viewpoint of resources (natural=land, human=labor, technical=capital), i.e. ethics has a cybernetic function to sustain or develop a human made system. However, it is possible to achieve ecological sustainability while keeping extreme degrees of human inequality, due to the physical power structure as 'accumulated civilizational history' of ~5000years, i.e. your empirical argumentation, so far, is dead right.

What about the Productivity Paradox? Does it also hold in the "New Age"?

The assumption of the productivity paradox and the related new economy illusion were based on knowledge as a separate production factor, along land, labor and capital. It will be indeed interesting to focus on the relationship between investments into exponentiality and productivity statistics. At first, we will see creative destruction and an employment problem, i.e. the productivity paradox repeating. I do understand knowledge as labor, so this great transition in productive forces does not immediately translate into better social relationships of economic production, due to difference of the technical and the human learning curve. Therefore, we need a macro-prudent strategy to cope with the many societal imbalances; the fabric of modern societies is very fragile, despite all tech-know-logical progress. You may also like to visit the same project on this site.

Dear @Stephen, yes, "the fabric of modern societies is very fragile...", and education must adapt and help.

In short, the fourth industrial revolution requires new forms of work and new ways to educate millions of people worldwide. The labour market transition is already well under way, but when it will be complete is unknown. The McKinsey report estimates that half of all the current jobs in the world could be automated by 2055 but it acknowledges a 20-year margin of error in both directions, depending on social adaption to the technology and government regulations.

Either way, the employment market for future tertiary education graduates will be drastically different from what it is today. A report published last year by the consultancy InfoSys, titled Amplifying Human Potential, suggests that, unlike during the previous upheavals, the speed of change this time means that society may not have enough time to adapt to the pace of disruption in the labour market. Rapid, mass technological unemployment needs to be met head on with a new emphasis on upskilling existing workers and inculcating a culture of lifelong learning. Employees will need to learn new skills and embark on new career paths many times over...

https://www.timeshighereducation.com/features/higher-education-must-prepare-for-the-rise-of-the-machines

Many thanks, Ljubomir , for your mindful contributions ! You are a rock of science and a great communicator; yes, we are already part of a third Copernican revolution, in science, technology and human society. Consequently, only efficient educational tools and intelligent policy-making will point to a workable strategy for the majority of people, who do not live from the income of their assets. Hope springs eternal.

Ljubomir,

The society will require life long education but right now the societal incentive for supporting this are not there. Public funding for education does not increase in proportion to the population and very often diminish.  It is ok for those lucky to be born from families able to financially support them.  Salaries of the middle classes of the developed countries are diminishing  relative to the cost of living.  All this automation which should make the middle class for wealthy is'nt given the the rate of return on capital has been since the early 1800 consistently higher than the growth of GDP  except for a brief period between I1930 and 1975 (Piketty's Capital in the 21th century) So if the production efficiency curb is exponention, the curb rate of return on capital increase constantly at a higher rate and so there is less and less benefit for the middle class of the increase of the efficiency.  We are now in a negative benefits where labor is pay less and less and the state income are also diminsihing rendering the funding of public education more and more harder.  These curves can be changes but only if the economic system is changes.  Big technological discoveries are not going to change these tendencies.  Only politic can.

Politics is the shadow of big business, opined J.Dewey. K.Marx reveals in his 3rd volume of 'Das Kapital' that all profit finally disappears into rent; I would rewrite the Piketty formula: rent curbs growth (r>g); many economic things that are accounted as capital stock are factually land (natural resources), i.e. land is not capital. The accounting unit is fiat money and private banks are allowed to give credit; land serves as the main collateral for banking, since Sumeria. Consequently, this humanitarian problem needs the creation of a learning society that amplifies human living chances in the economic jackpot. However, I started in youth and adult education of labor organizations and experienced the consumerist mentality of participants as the main obstacle of learning, i.e. learning is closely connected to human values.

Automatic systems used in production makes easier reiterative actions, and the human factor can be substituyed by other machines or technologies with similar results in many cases.

hello

It is a wonderful question I will follow and recommend to take advantage

regards

Rethinking and reorganizing the accounts of society will be crucial, i.e. economic, ecological and demographic data will have to be integrated. This also refers to a basic reform of the taxation system, which implies the elimination of rent-seeking.and the introduction of a citizen's dividend. All this points to a new societal deal, with mutual existential guarantees, to check throat-cutting economic techniques, i.e. free choice of economic contracts. We are in need of social silicon valleys (social innovations) to meet new human demands/needs; the direction is economic democracy.

Dear @Stephen, let me bring my, related research question to yoyr thread. There are neal 600 answers.

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Can_we_consider_automation_as_the_enemy_of_employment

Dear @Stephen, my general opinion is as follows: a) the role of land as production factor will grow, as well as of natural resources (their value is underestimated, see B. Czech "The supply shock", 2013), b) there are many uncertainties on how machines will replace labor in the next 30 years and what new jobs will be needed. I think that certain labor skills will still be in demand (I see that machine is still stupid in pattern recognition, according to Facebook tests, and that programmers will be needed anyway). You may be right about growing technological complexity and shortened life cycles of products (we see already on examples of mobile phones).

https://www.amazon.com/Supply-Shock-Economic-Crossroads-Solution/dp/0865717443

@yuri yegorov

That is a profound contribution, merci. Your work into land value is significant, because you nailed the important points by mathematical methodical thinking. I agree fully with your diagnosis, that machines are still stupid. Will study the suggested 'supply shock' by Czech. Best:stephen

Good visions are needed to progress; such things can never be done alone. A community of like minded people can do it.

Dear Yuri,

I read the introduction of your book and you are right in pointing at the biggest myth of all, that we can continue worship the goddest of economic growth forever if we want to return to sanity: Gaia. The cult of technological singularities has some responsibility for sustaining the cult of endless economic growth and the relentless killing of Gaia. The return to a steady state enonomy would also need to debunk another very powerfull taboo: touching the politically sentivive question of population growth. If touch on this question then one has to open other difficult questions.

The B.Czech/H.Daly Crossroad publication finds my full support ! The role of money remains crucial; no steady state without monetary stability.

I think that while knowledge automation can lead to exponential increase of the quantity of processes, the overall contribution to production will be much smaller. Definitely not exponential, and maybe even less than geometric. I am aware of some studies about decreasing returns from digitization to productivity. We should not hope for a miracle here. In the end, computers are stupid, although fast. Can our RG community increase global scientific productivity exponentially via increase of our communication? It is also an open question.

@yuri

Many thanks for pointing to the 'quality' bottleneck. How to turn quantity into quality, in this respect? I would like to add: quantitative destruction, without qualitative creation.

"IT automation will progress to act with greater intelligence and autonomy. IT automation platforms are likely to rely heavily on artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. For example, an automation tool can synthesize data on configurations, performance and other information across an IT deployment and process these inputs to discover a normal system operations benchmark, a deviation from which would trigger corrective actions. IT automation systems imbued with AI insights theoretically lessen the importance of deliberate, human-made automation rules, relying instead on autonomous choices guided by high-level business cost and compliance requirements...."

https://searchitoperations.techtarget.com/definition/IT-automation

@Ljubomir

Many thanks for sharing this valuable knowledge; the graphic is very impressive, concerning the technology circuit !

follow

@Jasna

Quantitative destruction, without creative quality, is a real danger. The term 'creative destruction' (Marx, Schumpeter) is not valid for exponentiality. Networking has to be learned, people are used to hierarchies.

@Jasna

The secrecy and power of hidden agendas in the application of ideas and knowledge is always about people; but you are right: networking should comprise ideas, knowledge and people.

Hmm!

Exponentiality will test anthropological traditions (habits), but also help to bring more transparency. The last opaque window is the military sector, where secrecy seems to remain paramount. Even banking will become more democratic. All this violence is from the animal kingdom, motivated by the fight for territory. So, all these productivity gains can really be converted into creative networking for the common good.

In my view, Internet of Things, Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning will help in optimising production function to cater to needs of the society.

@Ashok

The needs will not be catered from alone; we are in need of prudent policies, which make happen what you envisioned. You are right to point to the benefits of the mentioned technologies.

this link is useful

www.defenseinnovationmarketplace.mil/.../Future_of_Naval_Innovat...

regards

@Hassan

Can not open it (error 404).

Dear Stephen, as an automation researcher who is connected to production heavily, I may suggest the attached article (link to).

We often hear from technology entrepreneurs, futurists, and some media outlets, that automation will lead to a bright future. At the same time, there is a significant number of intellectuals, politicians and journalists depicting doomsday scenariosfor our automated future.

Much of the current debate is shaped by these extreme hypotheses. You are either in favour of automation and everything that comes with it, or against it. This is astonishing, since similar discussions were already led in the pre-internet age about similar topics. We currently repeat them without providing new solutions.

It is worth looking at four scenarios for our future with differing automation intensities, to stimulate a broader discussion that does not just address extreme opinions, but also the spectrum in between. In this context, artificial intelligence research is considered to be the main enabler for future automation...

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/02/what-impact-will-automation-have-on-society-four-scenarios/

Ljubomir Jacić Many thanks for your always constructive support, dear Ljubomir!

I am in full agreement with your technical observation that artificial cognition (intelligence) will be the key driver of future automation of the animal, human and machine mind. The social shaping of these trends is definitely bound to a humanized tech-know-logy integration and transfer of ecological, economic and ethical ideas, in terms of methodical application.

Dear Friends and Colleagues of RG

From the 1970s, up to three factors of classical economics (land, labor, capital) are added as equally important based on the third technological revolution resulting from the development of computer science. During this time, neoclassical trends developed, according to which classic factors (land, labor, capital) are added such as: information, innovations, patents, knowledge, technology etc. Currently in the era of the IV technological revolution based on advanced, computerized processing of large knowledge collections the importance of knowledge concerning new, innovative technologies is growing and increasingly determines the development of technological startups, other companies and corporations and affects the development of the economy of developed countries.

The current technological revolution, known as Industry 4.0, is determined by the development of the following technologies of advanced information processing:

Big Data database technologies, cloud computing, machine learning, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, Business Intelligence and other advanced data mining technologies. The information technologies mentioned above are increasingly used in manufacturing processes, in the production processes of economic dells, in the processes of supplying products and services to the markets, which are becoming more and more technologically processed. In this way, technology becomes one of the key production factors in modern developed countries.

Best wishes

Dariusz Prokopowicz Jaroslav Dvorak

Yes, the transition from the linear to the circular economy is in the making. The growing knowledge-intensity of all economic productions factors (land, labor, capital) is due to the ongoing informatization of society, currently observable by the 4.0 tech-know-logical level. The acccounts of society (R.Stone, Nobel Laureate, 1984) will have to consider economic, demographic and eco-logical data.

Probably aint gonna be predicted because of its destructive model implements. Future depends on space production capacity.

Yaşar Alkan The concept of space production capacity should be elaborated, e.g.

https://mises.org/library/time-and-money-macroeconomics-capital-structure-roger-w-garrison

Hassan Izzeddin Sarsak

The classical production model with three inputs, namely land (L*), labour (L), and capital (K), has been outdated for many years.

The KLEMS production function incorporates capital (K), labour (L), energy (E), materials (M), and services (S), and can easily be extended to include land (L*).

Other factors will undoubtedly enter the production function in the years ahead, and will modify it if appropriate data become available or can be estimated.

Bodies of knowledge ebb and flow over time. When you step back and look at them, the maturation of a specific discipline or technology is counted in decades...

Several cool physical technologies are just coming of age. Their origins date to the 1980s. Rapid prototyping is becoming Additive Manufacturing and changing the factory. Composite materials and advanced polymers are increasingly replacing metal parts...

https://www.machinedesign.com/industrial-automation/future-product-design

The production function in economics is the relationship between the levels of various inputs that are required to produce a given level of output.

The types of production functions can and do change over time.

The production function is different from the production process.

Chia-Lin Chang Ljubomir Jacić Michael John McAleer

Many thanks for your contributions, which give this discourse a dynamic view of exponential knowledge automation, concerning the systemic evolution of future production capacities.

Dear Stephen:

It is a pleasure to try to answer an interesting futuristic Question.

https://www.researchgate.net/project/EXPONENTIAL-KNOWLEDGE-AUTOMATION

Chia-Lin Chang The question was the starter for the above mentioned project, dear Chia-Lin Chang.

Michael John McAleer We can slowly conclude that exponentiality creates a 4th separate production factor, i.e. knowledge as tech-know-logic? With industrialization, capital was becoming gradually a 3rd independent production factor, i.e. fully separated from land and labor. The role of money must also be noted.

http://www.bentamari.com/ecometry.html

To Stephen:

Innovation and developments in technical knowledge will certainly add further dimensions to the production function.

Whether the production functions are independent would seem to be an empirical issue.

Sajda Taha Mahmood I am in agreement with your methodical observation on organizational strategy (short-vs. long-term focus of production management).

Following..

Automated information processing will eventually combine with quantum computing to create novel levels of unprecedented artificial intelligence, enabling self replicating automated robotics that mine their own space resources. These kinds of forward thinking ideas will enable vast space infrastructure in the next 10-1000 years.

https://learn.mruniversity.com/globalization-curriculum/?utm_source=drip&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EGF%2FEconInk+-+General+Blast&utm_content=New+series%3A+Globalization+and+Robots%21

FREE ONLINE COURSE----FREE ONLINE COURSE:

Globalization, Automation and Labor.

Dear Stephen I. Ternyik , this is fine course.

As it was said: " Globalization and automation have shaped and reshaped our world beyond recognition. Your students confront big choices about education, career choice, and living location. Understanding the forces of globalization and automation can inform and improve their decisions so that they can successfully navigate the economy of the future..."

The classical production model with three inputs, namely land (L*), labour (L), and capital (K), has been outdated for many years.

Feruza Sodiqovna Jalilova What alternative model do you prefer?

Technological change leads to an increase in output, and to an increase in the share of capital, but and to an increase the real return to capital.The impact of technological change on factor income. At some stage, the rate of increase in real wages will be less than the rate of technological change. I think it can be applied two-factor Cobb-Douglas production function with technological change.

Krasimira Slaveva What about money in the production function? It does not behave neutral to economic production.

https://demonstrations.wolfram.com/TamariAttractor/

Gulrux Zakirova

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity_model

KLEMS (extended by the inclusion of land=natural resources/=locations) as proposed here by Michael John McAleer is a workable and practical option for understanding the rapid change happening currently.

Please see this link:

http://www.fao.org/3/a-i6583e.pdf

Ghassan Fadhil Smaisim

Food and nutrition definitely belong as topic to the production function; with respect to the mentioned study, I do think, distribution matters and here we come to policy-options.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/We_Feed_the_World

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPNovoWxlSo

Ramatu Ussif

Ramatu Ussif

No, the classical model of 3 production factors (land, labor, capital) not valid in the tech-know-logical age of automated information-processing.

Isam Alkhalifawi Yes, and this is the reason for the wrong/false accounting systems in our societal practice.

Conference Paper Money To Capital?

Nice question

COVID-19 has speeded up the acceptance of fully digitised approaches to recreate the best of in-person learning through video conferencing and social sharing.

Also, e-commerce is gearing up with the reason to maintain social and safe distance.

This transformation makes it possible to gain knowledge in a more cost-effective way and permits greater personalisation for learners—and in turn greater efficiency and effectiveness.

It is advisable to get started on reskilling programmes rather than to wait for the situations to get better, but make organisations better prepared for potential future disruptions...

https://www.expresshealthcare.in/blogs/impact-of-corona-on-msmes/421713/

Ljubomir Jacić Your observations are right and helpful !

Beverly Dawn Metcalfe

With respect to inequality formations, the work of

https://www.guystanding.com/

comes into my mind, but also the initiatives of

https://greattransition.org/

New inequality formations are indeed selection silos, with very negative effects on social peace and ethics in modern societies, i.e. it is a class struggle that is fought from the top to the bottom.

By 2050, there will be a significant increase in the application and use of constantly improved Industry 4.0 technologies for production processes. In terms of the technology of the current fourth technological revolution and Industry 4.0, analytical and database technologies are used in industrial applications, primarily Big Data Analytics, Data Science, Industrial Data Science, cloud computing, machine learning, industrial Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, Business Intelligence, autonomous robots , Robot Coordinator, horizontal and vertical data system integration, multi-criteria simulation models, additive manufacturing, Blockchain, smart technologies, Industrial Computer Engineering / Programming, Network Development Engineering, 3-D Printer Engineering, Industrial User Interface Design, Wearable Technology Designer and other technologies advanced data processing in industrial applications. Thanks to the implementation of these technologies into production processes, production logistics is improved, the efficiency of production management processes is increased, the efficiency of production processes is improved, the efficiency of production processes is improved, the scale of automation and standardization of production processes is increased, certain categories of operating costs are reduced, and profitability of production processes and the quality of manufactured products is improved. In the context of business management, the key issue is to make a decision regarding the planning and implementation of investments aimed at implementing these technologies into production processes.

Best regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Dear Dr. Stephen I. Terniyk,

The aging of the population will surely make us lose a "historical moment" between now and 2050 and this, despite the technologies that are supposed to guarantee the passage of the WITNESS. And it is that automation and aging are still two serious problems that we face as Human Beings, and to this we should add today environmental problems and economic crises "that come and go." What can we do then, Dear Dr. Stephen I. Terniyk with those thousands and thousands of young people today who in the near future will be considered unnecessary ???

My dear Juana Maria Arcelus-Ulibarrena Am in agreement with your observation that we are facing an educational bottleneck as per employment opportunities and living chances for young people. I do promote ‚learning that pays‘ , i.e. polytechnic skills and high literacy. To the economic framework of this agenda does belong the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizen%27s_dividend, i.e. the capture of economic rent from unearned income=

https://www.henrygeorgefoundation.org/the-science-of-economics/economic-rent.html

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https://www.thefreedictionary.com/geonomics

Geonomics will do to economics, what astronomy did to astrology and chemistry to alchemy.

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https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/228546/7555.pdf

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To sum it up: we need a learning revolution and a value switch from the materialist consumer society towards the living spirit of earth sharing&caring,

that is a human culture of light, love and learning.

—

Indeed, Dear Dr. Stephen I. Temyik@ we need a reorganization of learning that goes hand in hand with respect to the time we are living in, but more than a change in values ​​of the materialistic consumer society, I would suggest a "RECOVERY" of the values ​​lost because of the materialistic consumer society. Only in this way can we aspire to an assessment of the sensitivity of the spirit in its awareness of the HIGH VALUES of HUMAN CULTURE.

Juana Maria Arcelus-Ulibarrena We are in full sync, concerning the human development of culture, values and technology, with respect to living chances in the jackpot of life !!!!!!!

I am very happy to be able to confirm this synchrony Dear Dr. Stephen I. Ternyik

Dear Dr. Stephen I. Ternyik

Yes, it is a very important question: how knowledge automation will change the production function and others in the coming years. Technology, artificial intelligence and machine learning will surely affect our daily life. And we need to analyze the positive and negative effects on our life, in order to increase the positive effects and decrease the negative effects. Thus we have to work hard.

Regards

Hussein Chible Learning to work smart will be our challenge, in my opinion.

Dear Stephen I. Ternyik , is your working paper The Political Economy of Knowledge Automation still in progress?

Working Paper The Political Economy of Knowledge Automation

Ljubomir Jacić My dear Ljubomir:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/354374113_Managing_Exponentiality

One of the outcomes of that working paper is this self-learning course on managing exponential knowledge automation, within the RG project.

Best and cordially: stephen