Dear All, I need your help kindly tell me how i can measure the impact of trade liberalization on economic growth with respect to industrial sector. basically i want to ask that, either i would take only one industry or multiple industries?
furthermore, kindly tell me which model will be more suitable for it?
Thank You
You can consider the industrial sector contribution to gdp to measure the growth of the industrial sector.
thank you very much and could you please tell me which model will be suitable for it?
Why externalities impact is negligible as an argument for protectionism. There may be exceptions to the case?
Article An Applied General Equilibrium Model Of Moroccan Trade Liber...
You can use causality models.Engle granger causality;Vecm model;based on characteristics and availability of data of the variables you will use and whether you want to detect a short or long
Do you want to use an economy wide model to see the multiplier effects? You would need a lot of data and interlinkages among industries. Do you want to use time series analysis and look at the growth of a particular industry, considering whether there is a structural break when the effect of liberalization kicked in? It depends on what your purpose is, data resources are, and skills are.
thank you very much for responding, Yes madam Exactly i want to use-time series data to look at particular industry, could you please tell me which model is best for it to measure the impact. i want to calculate for Pakistan.
Ms. Bhattacharya appears to have your answer. I usually do interindustry analysis of the type that Mr. Lew put up for you. They are completely different methods as you can see. Best to ask a time series expert who studies structural shcoks and their effects on trend variables.
First be clear what data you have, time series, cross sectional or panel data.Then decide upon the model. Did you check the characteristic pattern of the data?
CGE models are the best to measure the impact of trade liberalization. for growth aspects you will develop dynamic CGE model.
With time series: If question is of causality use Granger causality or VAR model to measure short run and long run impact.
Please, see attached articles. they are very interesting.
http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/26267/1/dp040282.pdf