I am looking at different planning methods and their applicability in Indian context.
What we have found is that.
Individuals choose their residential to suit their mode preferences.
However, the system only allows limited mode choice. So a large portion of riders (more than 60%) cannot exercise choice.
Land-use regulation itself is very poor, therefore, travel cost often determines built form
Traditional transport planning models like the 4-stage model have largely failed to understand the system and plan for it
Given this context, I am looking at optional methods that are simple and more relevant. Sketch planning approach could be a good alternate to plan for transport in Indian cities.
You may find of interest this recent practice-oriented reference for travel forecasting tools at the sktech planning level via the Transportation Research Board:
The sketch planning approach is a preliminary method used in transportation planning to quickly evaluate the potential impacts of various transportation strategies or scenarios. Here's how you can utilize the sketch planning approach for transport planning:
1. Define Objectives and Scope: Clearly outline the objectives of the transportation study and define the scope of the analysis. Determine what specific questions you are trying to answer and what aspects of transportation planning you need to focus on (e.g., congestion reduction, mode shift, accessibility improvements).
2. Data Collection: Gather relevant data needed for the analysis. This may include information on population and employment distribution, current transportation infrastructure, travel behavior patterns, land use characteristics, and socio-economic factors. Data sources may include census data, transportation surveys, traffic counts, and geographic information systems (GIS) databases.
3. Model Selection: Choose an appropriate modeling tool or software for the sketch planning analysis. Sketch planning tools range from simple spreadsheet-based models to more sophisticated travel demand modeling software. Select a tool that matches the complexity of your analysis and the level of detail required.
4. Scenario Development: Develop alternative transportation scenarios or strategies to evaluate. These could include changes to infrastructure (e.g., new roads, public transit expansions), transportation policies (e.g., pricing schemes, parking regulations), or land use patterns (e.g., mixed-use developments, transit-oriented developments).
5. Model Calibration and Validation: Calibrate the transportation model using available data to ensure that it accurately reflects current conditions and behavior. Validate the model by comparing its outputs to observed data or previous studies to ensure its reliability and accuracy.
6. Analysis and Evaluation: Run the transportation model for each scenario and analyze the results. Evaluate the impacts of each scenario on key performance measures such as travel time, congestion levels, mode share, accessibility, environmental impacts, and equity considerations. Compare the scenarios to identify the most effective strategies for achieving your objectives.
7. Sensitivity Analysis: Conduct sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of the results to changes in key input parameters or assumptions. This helps identify the most critical factors influencing the outcomes and the level of uncertainty associated with the analysis.
8. Documentation and Reporting: Document the methodology, assumptions, and findings of the sketch planning analysis in a comprehensive report. Clearly communicate the implications of the results to stakeholders, decision-makers, and the public through presentations, memos, or other communication channels.
9. Iterative Process: Recognize that transportation planning is an iterative process, and the results of the sketch planning analysis may inform further detailed studies or refinements to the transportation strategies. Continuously monitor and evaluate the performance of the transportation system over time to ensure that it meets the evolving needs of the community.
By following these steps, you can effectively use the sketch planning approach to inform transportation planning decisions and identify promising strategies for improving the efficiency, sustainability, and accessibility of the transportation system.