To perform analytical modelling of ballistic impact, you need to look for the adequated model in the literature.
It shall be done according to the terminal ballistic you have, i.e. it depends essentially on the impact velocities, type of projectil and target. Of course, analytical models exists only for very simple cases.
If you are new to the field, one suggestion is to look at references in the following very simple MSc thesis and extended abstract (Title: Analytical methods for high speed impact behaviour of long rods), available online from Universidade de Lisboa https://fenix.tecnico.ulisboa.pt/cursos/meaer/dissertacao/283828618790466 (obs: this thesis only considers kinetic energy transformation in plastic deformation).
There are several models in the literature. You may also look for papers dealing with the analythical formulation
Ballistic Impact Behavior of Thick Composites: Analytical Formulation https://doi.org/10.2514/1.11993
hope you may find a model adequated for your problem.