First define uncertainty as you intend to use it.

One possible way is to use the Monte-Carlo Simulation.

Project risks and uncertainties may arise from the project itself or external factors and may affect quality, time and costs. The risks have to be verified continuously (at the latest at the end of each iteration or project phase) and if necessary updated. Especially for larger projects, risk analysis requires time and experience and should be considered in project planning.

The PMI Practice Standard for Project Risk Management could be helpful for you. It provides useful methods and tools:

https://www.pmi.org/pmbok-guide-standards/framework/practice-standard-project-risk-management

Thanks for your reply. Ahmed M. Salem

Thanks for your answer and helpful recommendations. Andrea Moccia

Thanks for your answer Arun Garg

Uncertainty can be dealt with by using risk analysis which comprises quantitative and qualitative methods such as probabilistic analysis,sensitivity analysis,fuzzy logic,fault tree analysis etc.

Many professionals commonly use risk interchangeably with uncertainty in project management or more specifically in risk management.

Although there is a big difference between risk and uncertainty, many people often ignore it and think they are the same.

Therefore, I’m writing this blog post to shed light on this which I hope after reading it, you won’t have any problem distinguishing between risk and uncertainty.

Risk

A risk is an unplanned event, which if it occurs, it may affect any of your project objectives.

The risk is positive if it affects your project positively, and a negative risk if it affects the project negatively.

There are separate risk response strategies for negative and positive risks.

The objective of a negative risk response strategy is to minimize the impact of negative risks while the objective of a positive risk response strategy is to maximize the chance of positive risks happening.

You might also hear about two more risks terms: known risks and unknown risks.

Known risks are the risks which you have identified during the identify risks process and unknown risks are those risks which you couldn’t identify during the identify risks process.

A contingency plan is made for known risks, and you will use the contingency reserve to manage these risks.

On the other hand, unknown risks are managed through a workaround, and the management reserve is used to manage these kinds of risks.

Uncertainty

Uncertainty is a lack of complete certainty. In uncertainty, the outcome of any event is entirely unknown, and it cannot be measured or guessed; you don’t have any background information on the event.

You may argue that uncertainty is the same as unknown risks; however, uncertainty is not an unknown risk.

In uncertainty, you completely lack the background information of an event even though it is identified. In the case of an unknown risk, although you have the background information, you miss it during the identify risks process.

A Real-World instance on Risk and Uncertainty

Assuming two famous football teams are consisting of renowned players, and they are going to play a football match the next day.

Can you tell me exactly which team is going to win?

No, you can’t; however, you can make an educated guess by reviewing and analyzing the past performance of each player, the team, and the results of matches they played against each other.

Then you can come up with some number like there is a 40% chance of Team A or Team B winning, or there is a 70% possibility of Team A or Team B losing the match.

Now, let us put the same football match in a different scenario.

Let us say again that two football teams are going to play a game, and no players are selected for either team.

In this situation, if somebody asked you which team is going to win, what would be your response?

You will be clueless because you don’t know which team consists of which players, and you have no idea how the teams will perform, etc.

In this situation, you don’t have any past information, are clueless, and hence cannot predict the outcome of the event, even though the match, rules, and the stadium is the same.

This situation is called uncertainty.

Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:

• In risk, you can predict the possibility of a future outcome while in uncertainty you cannot predict the possibility of a future outcome.
• Risk can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
• Risks can be measured and quantified while uncertainty cannot.
• You can assign a probability to risks events, while with uncertainty you can’t.

Conclusion

Risk and uncertainty are different terms, but most people think they are the same and ignore them. Managing risk is easier because you can identify risks and develop a response plan in advance based on your experience. However, managing uncertainty is very difficult as previous information is not available, too many parameters are involved, and you cannot predict the outcome.

However, to complete your project successfully, you must be very cautious, proactive, and open-minded to manage risk and uncertainty.

Here is where this blog post on risk and uncertainty ends. If you have something to share, you can do so through the comments section.

Thanks for your answer Timothy Adu Gyamfi

Thanks for your answer and helpful recommendations Syed Rizwan Ul Haq Tirmizi