What is mainly determined by the issue of the possible introduction or non-introduction of the euro currency in Poland?

Do the media debates on the issue of the possible introduction of the euro currency in Poland continue to be dominated by politicized subjectivism instead of fully objective analysis and research?

For years, the media have been conducting sterile discussions based on the low level of economic knowledge of citizens. Discussions in the media by economic commentators tend to lack objectivity, as they are determined by subjective reference to studies conducted by certain institutions, including the NBP, which were also not conducted and commented on under conditions of full political impartiality. The government, without the influence of various pressure groups, prefers the stasus quo to which it is accustomed, to which it is condemned for the next 4 years after winning the elections, and maximizes the pros against the cons of a given state of affairs, that is, the situation of Poland having a national currency. In Poland, the main social group that would definitely benefit from the introduction of the euro in Poland are entrepreneurs, mainly importers and exporters who settle their business activities in euros and therefore bear the costs of hedging against currency risks. However, even this social group is apparently too weak to unite in organizations supporting the plan to introduce the euro. Regarding the issue of the plan to introduce the euro in Poland, there is no such plan in principle. There were first attempts to develop this plan as early as the late 1990s, but as it turned out, the issue of the dominant narrative in the media was politically determined in particular years, or rather, during the periods of the various ruling political parties. The political narrative of the PIS party is related to the policy of printing national currency, the printing of so-called anti-crisis additional domestic money. The second PIS argument for not introducing the euro in Poland is the loss of national monetary policy by the NBP, i.e. the central bank, which theoretically and according to current legal norms (the Polish Constitution and the NBP Act) is an independent bank from the government's fiscal policy, which is not in line with the facts given the political ties of NBP President Prof. Glapinski with the PIS party, which ruled for 8 years from 2016 to 2023. Another third key argument, partly objective and economic, suggests that Poland could adopt the euro in the distant future, when the economic potential of the Polish economy, the production capacity of industrial sectors, labor productivity determined, among other things, by the equipment of manufacturing processes with new technologies and innovations, the balance sheet totals of banks' financial capital, the level of real income of citizens, etc., will almost equal the analogous levels in the largest economy in Europe and at the same time the main trading partner with respect to Poland, i.e. the German economy. In addition to this, the arguments used to question the legitimacy of the introduction of the euro in Poland in recent years often include concerns about the increase in prices of many products and services, which would occur in the first years after Poland's entry into the eurozone. The basis for this argument is to point to such a phenomenon, which has occurred on a certain scale in countries where the euro currency was recently introduced. In a situation where such a phenomenon also occurred in Poland, the most affected would be citizens with the lowest and lower levels of income, citizens who spend a significant part of their income on the purchase of basic products, including food products. From the arguments presented, further arguments follow. Well, if in the situation of a much less developed Polish economy in relation to the largest economy in Europe, which is the German economy, the plan to introduce the euro currency in Poland would be implemented, the less developed Polish economy could continue to develop less well and would not necessarily catch up quickly with the economic development of Germany. On the other hand, there are supporters of the completely opposite theory claiming that if Poland adopted the euro now it would develop faster and thus catch up with Germany's economic development faster. But there are also supporters of the theory that these issues are not necessarily correlated, because it is usually the case that less developed countries, when they develop and are developing, growing countries then the magnitude of the rate of economic growth in such smaller and less developed economies is greater in comparison with the corresponding figures denoting the rate of economic growth expressed in percent, expressed in the indicator macroeconomic determinant Gross Domestic Product. So this issue is almost entirely "malleable," subject to politicized, subjective evaluation. However, if the policy had changed on this issue, a plan for the introduction of the euro had been developed, all the formal requirements of the European Union had been met in terms of the monetary policy and fiscal policy applied in the country and their effects in the form of similar to EU standards issues of the development of the exchange rate of the PKN against the euro and in terms of the level of debt of the system of public finances of the state, and after a few or more years in Poland the euro currency would have been introduced, then in many media commentaries consideration of the pluses of the situation would have begun to prevail instead of consideration of the minuses as before. Then it could turn out that loans would be cheaper, because ECB interest rates are lower than NBP interest rates. However, the fact that the ECB's interest rates are lower than those of the NBP is related to the issue of offering Treasury bonds to foreign investors, who need to be offered a correspondingly higher yield to cover the higher level of risks associated with the peculiarities of the Polish economy. In addition, the issue of higher interest rates of the NBP vis-à-vis the CBs is also related to the transactions carried out by the NBP on international financial markets, as well as the exchange rate of the national currency PLN against other currencies. On the other hand, changes in the exchange rate of the PLN against other currencies also matter to foreign investors conducting speculative investment activities in Poland using securities listed on the Stock Exchange, i.e. primarily investment banks and investment funds operating transnationally. On the other hand, when we ask whether there is any type of entity that cares about the continued existence of the domestic PLN currency in Poland, it is primarily domestic commercial banks generating much higher profits from the situation as it is now, and also the already mentioned foreign banks and investment funds. Well, it has happened more than once that in periods of internationally or globally developing financial and economic crises, a decline in the level of economic stability, an increase in various categories of financial and other risks foreign financial institutions, such as. Foreign financial institutions, such as banks and investment funds based in the City of London, taking advantage of the situation of increased sensitivity of the PLN currency to various crisis factors, the situation of increased amplitude of fluctuations of the PLN exchange rate against other currencies determined by the increase in uncertainty and risks developing in the scope of economic activities carried out by thousands of entities, carried out speculative transactions with the involvement of large financial resources in the foreign exchange markets increasing the scale of destabilization in the issue of the formation of the PLN exchange rate against the euro and other currencies. So, when you do not know what the issue is about it is about money, or when you seem to know what the issue is about you choose many different arguments for the situation, but unfortunately a situation determined mainly by politics and not economics.

Specific economic and financial aspects relating to the issue of the possible adoption of the euro currency in Poland in the precisely unspecified future I described in the following article:

NORMATIVE AND MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF ENTERING EURO CURRENCY IN POLAND

Article NORMATIVE AND MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF...

Determinants of the introduction of the euro currency in Poland

Article Determinanty wprowadzenia waluty euro w Polsce

In view of the above, I address the following question to the esteemed community of scientists and researchers:

Is the media debate on the issue of the possible introduction of the euro currency in Poland still dominated by politicized subjectivism instead of fully objective analysis and research?

What is mainly determined by the question of the possible introduction or non-introduction of the euro currency in Poland?

How is the issue of the possible introduction of the euro currency in Poland presented?

What do you think about this topic?

What is your opinion on this issue?

Please answer,

I invite everyone to join the discussion,

Thank you very much,

Best regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

The above text is entirely my own work written by me on the basis of my research.

In writing this text, I did not use other sources or automatic text generation systems.

Copyright by Dariusz Prokopowicz