For an upcoming roundtable at ISA Baltimore, I’d be happy to hear any predictions and ideas you might have about the future relationship between Canada and the United States under a Trump Administration.
Relatedly, how does this affect the relationship between Europe and Canada - will it lead to more or less cooperation in economic, security and other policy areas?
There wouldn't be any change in this regards. Depending out how the deals work out there might be some increase in agricultural goods.
I have the opinion that the relationships between Canada and the US new administration will change in the future, mainly in the economic sector, but somehow also in the political sectors as well.
The intention of the US administration to renegotiate the North American treaty in order to prioritize the US interest within it, will have a negative impact in the economic relationship between Canada and the USA. The same thing will happen with Mexico.
In addition, the intention of the new president to prioritize US interest in the economic sector with its neighboring, the threat to impose high tariffs against the import of goods into the USA from other countries, the penalization of companies that move to other countries to the import of their production into the USA, among other decisions that the US administration had threatened to take over this area, undoubtedly will have a negative impact upon the relationship between Canada and the USA.
Despite the current excellent political relationships between the USA and Canada, the lack of political and diplomatic experience and the erratic and confrontational behavior of the US President, will have also a negative impact on this relationship as well.
Due to the above, the economic relationship between Canada and Europe will improve at least within the next four years.
well, it will really depend on USA itself and its political and economical administration. Despite Trump's doings I don't really see any potential threat concerning the USA-Canada relationship. Sure there will be changes but those changes, I presume, will affect offshore (Mainly Asia, Europe, Middle East, and South America). I think Europe should make the most of the forthcoming USA self-centred political economy to strengthen its relations with Canada, Mexico and the like
Any renegotiation of the NAFTA will need input from Canada. Possible outcomes would depend on Canada's role in safeguarding the project against Trump's possible attacks on Mexico. Canada can be a mediator.
Thanks for your responses!
At the current pace of the US Administration, Europe would probably be well advised to seize the opportunity to strengthen its relations vis-à-vis Canada and other partners.
If others want to weigh in, I'd be happy to hear your ideas.
My assumption is that Trump views Canada more favourably than he does Mexico for a number of reasons. And the supply chain between Canada's industrial heartland in southern Ontario and Quebec and the United States is so integrated and costs are far more similar between Canada and the US that someone will convince Trump little will be achieved by forcing Canada to accept significant changes to NAFTA.
The relationships with both Canada and Mexico will remain solid because the three nations need each other. As for internationally, he may well surprise the world. He can be compared to Theodore Roosevelt who believed the US had a great future and believed in a strong nation that considered its self interests. Time will tell.
Thanks, David!
I asked this question a year ago - but it's not like the topic became anything less relevant or interesting.
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