How does the rapid warming and destruction of permafrost in Norway and Iceland indicate a period of global warming? Is this phenomenon a warning to humans?

With the EU-funded PACE project at the end of this century, several deep boreholes

(100 m +) were drilled at European mountain sites, including mainland Norway, Svalbard and Sweden. During other projects from c. 2004 and the International Polar Period (IPY) in

2006/07, several additional boreholes were drilled at various sites in Norway and Iceland.

Temperature measurements along elevational and latitudinal gradients. At most sites, multi-temporal geophysical sonography using seismic and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is available. Here we study the development of permafrost and ground temperatures in mainland Norway and Iceland based on this dataset. We document that permafrost is warming at a rapid rate, including the development of talc in Norway and Iceland in response to climate change over the past 20 years. At most sites, ground surface temperatures (GST) appear to be increasing more strongly than surface air temperatures (SAT). Changing snow conditions appear to be the most important factor for higher GST rates. Modeling exercises also show that talc development can be explained by both higher air temperatures and increased snow cover.Permafrost is thermally defined as the ground (i.e. the lithosphere) at a temperature of 0°C or less for at least two consecutive years (van Oerdingen, 1998). Since the 18th century, permafrost has been recognized as an important geomorphological factor governing the development of specific landforms and generating geotechnical problems for construction (cf. French, 1996). More recently, permafrost has been recognized as a major carbon reservoir that can be mobilized and released as greenhouse gases upon thawing (Hughlios et al., 2014; Miner et al., 2022). In addition, permafrost is a key component for the stability of steep rock walls or debris flowset al., 2023). Permafrost and the Earth's thermal regime also appear to be important factors in modulating the rate of geomorphological processes (Bertling and Etzelmüller, 2011) and ultimately landscape development (Andersen et al., 2015; Egholm et al., 2015; Hills and Roering, 2007; Hills and Roering, 2009; Etzelmüller et al., 2020b). Western Scandinavia and Iceland are located in the transition zone between regions dominated by permafrost from mountain to Arctic conditions towards Svalbard and eastern Greenland. In Currently, Norway has an extensive network of boreholes where we measure subsurface temperatures along elevational and latitudinal gradients (Etzelmüller et al., 2020a; Farbrot et al., 2011; ​​Christiansen et al., 2010; Solid et al., 2003). In addition, at most sites multi-temporal geophysical surveys using e.g. electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) are available. In Iceland, four boreholes have been in place since 2004, of which three boreholes were originally drilled in permafrost. Finally, daily gridded datasets of meteorological parameters such as air temperature and precipitation (Lussana et al., 2018a; Lussana et al., 2018b) and associated modelled snow cover (Saloranta, 2016; Czekirda et al., 2019) are available back to 1957 for Norway and 1959 for Iceland. This allows for an assessment of the relationship between climate and the Earth's thermal regime along regional gradients. This study maps changes in the thermal status of permafrost in Norway and Iceland based on borehole monitoring between 2004 and 2022. This study shows how climate change has rapidly warmed and degraded mountain glaciers and discusses possible drivers of these changes

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Dragan Ugrinov added a reply

March 9

Abbas Kashani

The phenomenon of rapid warming and thawing of permafrost in Norway and Iceland is one of the most obvious signs of global climate change, with far-reaching consequences for ecosystems, human activities, and infrastructure. Data from various research projects (PACE, IPY) indicate a concerning trend, where the temperature of the soil in permafrost zones is rising faster than air temperature. This trend has been particularly pronounced over the past 20 years, which aligns with global warming.

Permafrost is considered an important element in ecosystem stability, as it stores large amounts of carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases. The thawing of permafrost can release these gases into the atmosphere, further exacerbating the effects of global warming. Additionally, changes in snow cover and temperature conditions influence geomorphological processes, the stability of mountain glaciers, and rock formations, which could lead to an increased frequency of landslides and other geotechnical problems.

The rapid development of thaw (melting permafrost) in recent decades can be partially explained by the increase in snow cover, which acts as an insulator and allows for faster soil warming. Including these changes in climate models provides a clear picture of how fragile ecosystems, especially in mountainous and Arctic regions, are rapidly changing.

Is this phenomenon a warning for humans?

Absolutely, the thawing of permafrost is a serious warning. First, in the context of climate change, it indicates that the impacts of global warming will quickly manifest in different parts of the world. Therefore, it is crucial to accelerate efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate this trend.

Another aspect is geotechnical stability. In regions such as Norway and Iceland, the thawing of permafrost could threaten infrastructure, such as roads, railways, and buildings, that rely on soil stability. In the future, this could pose serious challenges for the construction industry, particularly in northern and mountainous areas.

Additionally, there is a risk of large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane being released from permafrost, which could further accelerate global warming and climate change. This creates a vicious cycle, as the release of these gases only worsens the situation.

Ultimately, this is a warning for all of us that it is essential to understand the seriousness of climate change and take concrete steps towards sustainable development, emission reduction, and adaptation to these changes.

Berj A. Hatjian added a reply

March 11

All true...

Humans as a species do not seem to learn from their mistakes.

Asbestos to MMMF and back to square one.

DDT to organochlorines back to square one.

Leaded gasoline to MTBE back to square one.

CFC to HCFC back to square one...

... & the cycle continues...

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Lila Jia added a reply

23 minutes ago

The degradation of permafrost can affect the geomorphic processes and ecosystems in mountainous areas. Thawing permafrost can lead to mudslides, landslides and the retreat of mountain glaciers, which not only affects the natural environment but may also have negative impacts on human activities, such as the stability and safety of infrastructure. In addition, the regulatory role of permafrost on ecosystems such as soil, hydrology and vegetation will also be disrupted.

Permafrost serves as a carbon pool. Once it thaws, the organic matter underground may release a large amount of greenhouse gases. This process not only exacerbates global warming but may also create a positive feedback loop, further intensifying climate warming. This is a major concern of the current scientific community regarding climate change, especially in the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions where permafrost is widely covered and the rate of thawing is accelerating.

At the same time, I am also a staff member of an academic institution specializing in climatology research. If you have academic journals that need cooperation, we can have in-depth exchanges.

WhatsApp: +86 188 8483 1354 email: [email protected]

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Mikhail Kovalyov added a reply

1 day ago

Please look at the attached file. As you see, the loss of ice in Greenland, Russia, and Antarctica is not due to global warming but to seismic activity. Same goes for changing permafrost. Feel free to contact me.

Borys Kapochkin added a reply

14 hours ago

Permafrost is a residual effect of global cooling in past geological eras. Permafrost zoning is determined by the outcrop of rocks with low thermal conductivity, which limits the influence of geothermal processes on weather and climate. As a result of permafrost, significant areas of land have an unfavorable climate for humans. An increase in atmospheric air temperature is not able to significantly affect permafrost in a time interval of 100-200 years. Activation of geothermal processes can change the situation with permafrost in a short period of time, but this is usually associated with cataclysms.

Conclusion. If global warming is associated with geological processes, then permafrost will disappear, and if with atmospheric processes, then it will remain.

Mikhail Kovalyov added a reply

4 hours ago

Boris, permafrost, just like everything else on the planet, is related to and affected by a variety of factors, including but not limited to global warming/cooling, earthquakes, changes in the Van Allen Belts, geomagnetic activity, etc. It's very naive to think that certain phenomena exist independently of others. I noticed that the less people know the harder they defend their opinions.

Borys Kapochkin added a reply

13 minutes ago

Answer to Kovalev from artificial intelligence (Kovalyov does not trust the intelligence of Boris Kapochkin).

Quote. "Let's consider the largest permafrost zone. This is Yakutia in the Russian Federation. Permafrost in Yakutia arose as a result of the long-term impact of the cold climate of the Pleistocene, continental conditions, soil characteristics and geographical location. It was formed due to deep freezing of moist soils and was preserved due to consistently low temperatures.

In Yakutia, the geothermal flow is low (30–60 mW/m²), so the thermal conductivity of trap rocks plays an important role in preserving the cold in the permafrost, limiting the influence of deep heat."

No reference to earthquakes, geomagnetic activity...

What do you say, "товарищ" Kovalev?