It is always difficult to assess the economic consequences of climate change, whether to measure the cost of action or inaction. American researchers have calculated the effects for the global economy if we aligned on a 1.5 ° C trajectory by the end of the century. The result: an estimated gain of $ 20 trillion.
In 2006, a report threw a cob in the pond and disconcerted the leaders of the world… Climate change could cost between 5 to 20% of the world's GDP. Very criticized, it becomes a reference and a turning point in the awareness of the weight of climate change on the economy because it emanated from the highly respected Sir Nicholas Stern, former chief economist of the World Bank, the director of the Budget and public finances to the British Treasury. More than 10 years later, this theoretical weight materializes very concretely by the exponential cost of disasters and extreme climatic events, one of the most visible cost items at this stage. In the space of 20 years, the economic losses linked to global warming have increased by more than 250% according to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. All economies are affected, but the most developed, often more significant. France is, therefore, part of the TOP10 of the countries that have suffered the largest losses in the world. 90% of the world's population would gain if warming was limited to 1.5 ° C by the end of the century, rather than 2 ° C. Better yet, it would generate $ 20 trillion in cumulative economic gains until 2100. Conversely, a rise in temperatures would increase the frequency of extreme weather events and therefore their costs. The bill for 2017 has already broken a record, reaching 400 billion dollars according to the cabinet Carbone 4. We must add that a drop in agricultural yields or a deterioration in the state of health of the population.
"Most current models of integrated economic and climate assessment assume that economic growth will continue regardless of the effects of climate change." This is incorrect, say three-quarters (78%) of economists surveyed. Most experts agree that climate change will limit the growth of the global economy.Climate change (by 3% by 2090) not only hinders economic growth, most economists say, but can also reduce global income by 25% or more. Such an outcome would be similar to the aftermath of the great depression almost 100 years ago.