I would like to forecast the and predict the earth quake in Nepal. A devastating (7.9 ritcher scale) earthquake hit Nepal in the area near Barpak, a mountain village between capital Kathmandu and tourist town Pokhara. Around 10000 deaths reported. Historic buildings, temples and houses collapsed. The earthquake was followed by many powerful aftershocks and a new earthquake (7.4) hit Nepal on Tuesday May 12.
Please find, through Researchgate, Dr. Demetris Christopoulos who is a Researcher in National and Kapodistrian Univ. as he has shown a strong interest in the same subject.
At the moment it is not possible, i know the existing a CN algorithms.
The intermediate-term medium-range prediction algorithms, namely CN (Keilis- Borok and Rotwain, 1990) and M8 (Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov, 1990)
Many efforts are dedied to earthquake prediction with only limited success. One interesting publication on this matter is indicated below:
Morales-Esteban, A., Martínez Álvarez, F., Troncoso, A., Justo, J.L. y Rubio-Escudero, C. (2010). “Pattern recognition to forecast seismic time series”. Expert Systems with Applications, ISSN 0947-4174. Vol. 43: 3: 287-304.
The most that could be attained with a prediction method would be to place an earthquake exceeding a certain Intensity (accelerogram) with a certain probability in a certain time interval. With this perspective who would dare to empty a wide area? For how much time? Where to place the people?
I believe that a better solution is to build earthquake resistant constructions.
It is necessary to make the difference between prevision and prediction. The successful works are mainly on the field of previsions: we know more or less the zones prone to generate earthquakes, we can evaluate the maximum possible magnitude that could be expected from active geological structures. But the time of earthquake occurrence, i.e. the prediction of strong events in time is not yet solved problem. Any statistical analysis can give you some issues that you are not able to announce as a prediction. Yes, the pattern recognition is one of the most successful of the approaches used, but it is more or less depending of your initial data, of the data organization, as well as of your knowledge about the on-going processes. Let understand the seismological data as more and more accurate measuring of the temperature of one ill men. The extrapolation of this data can only indicate some symptoms, but not to give the solution.
Respected Prof. Stefan Boyanov Shanov, Prof J. L. Justo, Prof Milton P. Plasencia Linares and Prof Theodore Costopoulos ,
Thank you so much for giving me the guidance and advises. Nepal is thankful to you all for sharing the information for our country scientists. We will try our best to construct a model after considering all knowledge and suggestions from this discussion.
I hope other international scientists also will share their experiences.
Agree with view that if earthquakes are a risk for a particular area, there should be a paradigm shift in construction practices, Nepal perhaps needs construction methods that will minimize damage.
the whole world understands the pain. We all pray that the country has seen the last of its troubles. wish the country a speedy recovery and hope it gets support from every possible source. God be with Nepal.
I had published a paper in a conference proceedings where I applied Markov-chains model to predict the place and the magnitude of large earthquakes in South America. You can find the paper in researchGate
So far earthquake prediction is not possible scientifically. If you see people predict earthquakes, most chances are that they just do it. There are arguments in earthquake seismology community that earthquakes are not predictable and the arguments are mainly grounded in non-linear physics. I agree that for practical reasons, we had better concentrate more on anti-earthquake engineering than on earthquake prediction, at least at this stage.
The Nepal earthquakes showed that it is difficult, even impossible, to predict or forecast an earthquake. There is no reliable approach or method for predicting or forecasting earthquake.
The earthquakes could be predicted in the near future. It is a real scientific goal. But, unfortunately, we are in the stage of data collecting and the methods analysis. Several sections at IUGG 2015 in Prague are focused to EQ prediction. But it is not the statistical prediction. This prediction doesn´t work. It is deterministic approach: Process -> precursors of critical state -> prediction of the time window, area and magnitude.
https://www.czech-in.org/cm/IUGG/CM.NET.WebUI/CM.NET.WEBUI.scpr/SCPRsessions.aspx?conferenceid=05000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000053&sessionID=05000000-0000-0000-0000-000000003326
https://www.czech-in.org/cm/IUGG/CM.NET.WebUI/CM.NET.WEBUI.scpr/SCPRsessions.aspx?conferenceid=05000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000053&sessionID=05000000-0000-0000-0000-000000003080
https://www.czech-in.org/cm/IUGG/CM.NET.WebUI/CM.NET.WEBUI.scpr/SCPRsessions.aspx?conferenceid=05000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000053&sessionID=05000000-0000-0000-0000-000000002613
To date, there is no proven scientific technique available, anywhere in the world, to forecast/ predict the occurrence of earthquakes with reasonable degree of accuracy with regard to space, time and magnitude.
However, earthquake prone zones have been identified world over, where earthquakes are likely to be occur in future based past seismicity studies. Earthquake prediction with precise location(epicentre), magnitude and time is still a long cherished goal of seismologist yet to be realised.
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