When they were exploring for uranium in eastern Ontario, I took local weather patterns and predicted where the Radon that would be released during excavation would be, at what concentration. I compared this to census data to predict ground level Rn level increases as a result of enough uranium mined to generate 1 TJ. That was then converted to additional fatalities, and I found how many more people would die from local uranium mining. Coal fired electrical generation produced slightly fewer fatalities (58 fatatities per TJe, vs 84 for local uranium, or 34 for uranium from northern Saskatchewan) from particulate matter.
But that's from a single source, and assumed local weather patterns applied right across the continent. Has anyone done this kind of analysis for everywhere, using real weather patterns? Has anyone drawn iso-fatality lines from various kinds of energy conversion? My analysis also didn't consider long term impacts (climate change, long lived radiation sources, etc), and that would be very interesting, too.
You can find the answers to our questions in the so-called Farmer's curves.
It is also important to refer to the risk acceptances threshold which is one chance of a fatality per million (1E-6). Sometimes, this threshold varies from one Country to another.
I cover the Farmer's curves as part of my courses at Yale University:
Khalil, Y.F. (Fall 2016). Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA). School of Forestry & Environmental Studies (F&ES) and School of Engineering & Applied Science (SEAS), Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, USA
Hope this helps answer your question.
Professor Yehia Khalil
Yale University
USA
Energy Source Mortality Rate (deaths/trillionkWhr)
Coal – global average 100,000 (50% global electricity)
Coal – China 170,000 (75% China’s electricity)
Coal – U.S. 10,000 (44% U.S. electricity)
Oil 36,000 (36% of energy, 8% of electricity)
Natural Gas 4,000 (20% global electricity)
Biofuel/Biomass 24,000 (21% global energy)
Solar (rooftop) 440 (< 1% global electricity)
Wind 150 (~ 1% global electricity)
Hydro – global average 1,400 (15% global electricity)
Hydro – U.S. 0.01 (7% U.S. electricity)
Nuclear – global average 90 (17% global electricity w/Chern&Fukush)
Nuclear – U.S. 0.01 (19% U.S. electricity)
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-deathprint-a-price-always-paid/#41db095b49d2
Thank you Yehia - that's close. I'm looking for a map that integrates all of the fugitive emissions. The release of fine particulates in Nunavut would have a much lesser impact than the release of fine particulate on the Eastern Seaboard of the US.
Florian - thank you. And I suspect these are direct deaths. Does the US hydro, for example, include the impact of mercury contaminated fish on premature mortality? I have to read James Conca's sources...
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