I am performing multi-period optimization (e.g. 2020-2035) of a MSW management system within the European context and I am struggling to find reliable data/methods/approaches for MSW composition forecasting. Most of the references I found link the generation of specific waste materials (e.g.plastic packaging, food waste, etc.) to GDP evolution. In other words, all materials contained in MSW evolve at the same rate as the GDP. This approach does not account for prevention measures for specific wastes (e.g. plastic ban) or the potential increase on the generation of other waste materials (e.g. an increased use of glass packaging). Do you have any idea/reference on this issue? (I am thinking, for example, on the use of consumption patterns to derive waste composition). I appreciate any suggestion provided.
A simple way to take into account the consumption pattern may be to check it for the last period of time (e.g. ten years) and extend it for the coming 10 years while considering the growth rate at the same time. However, there are many other parameters that may affect the waste composition such as new directives and regulations, taxes on special waste types, public awareness regarding waste management challenges, etc.
Dear Robert Istrate ,
forecasting both municipal solid waste composition and generation and very relevant issues.
I would suggest you consider system dynamics approach. This following paper might be of interest for you: Article Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growi...
System dynamics is very useful tool in this regards. Some basics we have described also in our recent paper: Article Uncovering the dynamic complexity of the development of smal...
Other option might be use of prognostic tools and regression analysis. This might work in your case as well: Article Forecasting municipal solid waste generation using prognosti...
Best regards,
Hynek
To complete Hynek Roubík recommendation, I suggest you review this paper where System Dynamics is applied.
Article Wasted paradise? Policies for Small Island States to manage ...
It may also be useful to see the combined approach of System Dynamics and Econometrics that we developed for the Spanish Balearic Islands.
Article Modelling the driving forces of the municipal solid waste ge...
Dear Robert,
I suggest that you have a look at MLS Journal, there is a special issue on this topic.
Sincerely,
Antonio
I'd share with you my published article in relevance to your topic
Article Impacts of socioeconomic changes on municipal solid waste ch...
For Taiwan case, only GDP factor is not enough to predict waste composition amount, for instance, as the highlight of the article "plastics and glass wastes generation decline, contrasting to the expanding economy". Also, decoupling waste generation and the growth of economy is a future trend in developed countries. Hope it is useful for your research even this is belated response.
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