For any organisation, strategy and forecasting is very important to plan for the future keeping various parameters, terms, and conditions in mind.
Many times we meet the predicted target and misses as well. Sometime we achieve it partially.
How can we define as standard using some mechanism or formula to evaluate that meeting the predicted strategy is successful or not?
In my opinion, the aim of strategic foresight studies is not to plan the future, but to identify the motors of the change, i.e. the parameters which are likely to have a significant influence on the changes to come.
It is mainly a tool for the different stakeholders for being able to take into account these changes to come in the decisions they take concerning the life of the organisation.
Future is not decided once and for all, it is the result of the actions we take, taking into account teh various parameters that influence.
Some examples of works we performed in that field:
Book Preview: Platformisation 2027
Book Modes and methods of production in France in 2040
Strategic foresight studies are also a tool for action, and allow os to try the make the present and the close future change:
Conference Paper Regulating the OSH impact on online platform economy (OSHA S...
Especially in the Age of Complexity, the best laid plans (and forecasts) will go awry. And yet, no other than Eisenhower said to the National Defense Executive Reserve Conference in Washington, D.C. (Eisenhower, 1957) that "Plans are worthless, but planning is everything." (One must take it the former American army general and president of the United States knew whereof he spoke.) A premortem is a managerial strategy in which a project team imagines that a plan (or forecast) has failed, and then works backward to determine what potentially could lead to the failure of the said. There is probably more food for thought from a premortem than from any standard, mechanism, or formula aimed at evaluating ex-ante whether a strategy will be successful or not. (There also happens to be an art to the practice of strategy.)
There are different ways to predict the approximate future and its strategy... Even errors can be approx estimated. But being an evaluator or reviewer how can we evaluate the accuracy of estimated/forecasted stuffs
Dear Ben Levin
, Olivier Serrat , planning and premortem as part of strategy can help us to get the best possible before execution..i agree.But my point is even for premortem, we need to have some defined threshold figure to measure whether premortem met the expected results or not.
Now, here when my team gave me some threshold and respective justifiable mechanism based answer, one way i can relook an accept the way it is, another option i need to justify the accuracy by some standard approach or proven mechanism to check the accuracy of the forecasts/set threshold.
Is there anything like this?
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