I knew a paper reporting that a high proportion of (anticancer) drugs did not prove effective in replicated studies. As I recall there were about 53 drugs tested and more than 40 turned out not to show the proposed effects. I don't remember any details and can't find this paper. I thought that "Ioannidis JP" is either the author or cited in this context but I could not find the right paper. Would be great if someone could give me a hint.
Thank you, Keren! Very interesting.
Actually in the meanttime I think I found what I was originally looking for:
C. Glenn Begley & Lee M. Ellis: Drug development: Raise standards for preclinical cancer research. Nature 483, 531–533 (29 March 2012) doi:10.1038/483531a
I also found this one:
Ioannidis JPA (2005) Why Most Published Research Findings Are False. PLoS Med 2(8): e124. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124
More good resources on this topic are most welcome!
may be the attached slide is helpful (Kola and Landis 2004, reference given on slide) showing the different attrition rates in various indications - and the very bad attrition rate for oncology products. Looks like development of cardiovascular drugs is more successful than anti cancer drugs...
Be careful with Ioannidis, his work has at least to be called "controverse". There are two articles about that, you will find more, when you look up in Pubmed who cited these:
http://biostats.bepress.com/jhubiostat/paper135/
http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040168
This has been reviewed here: http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/2007/09/24/the-cranks-pile-on-john-ioannidis-work-o/
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