There is a good recent paper discussing this, using long term data from voles in Finland http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12099/abstract;jsessionid=8CC0CCEAA06777B55CC66BF31F1B2BFF.d01t01?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false

An interesting example found here in the SW US is the pine beetle (Dendroctonus). Apparently pine beetle populations were controlled by cold winter temperatures, causing them to cease activity and resulting in substantial winter mortality. With warming winter minimum temperatures, the beetles are staying active and even breeding throughout the winter. The result has been widespread conifer mortality, increased wildfire frequency, and a shift in species composition. There are short term increases in woodpeckers and other species associated with dead trees, and likely declines in species that depend on microclimates provided by mature forests. Overall community turnover could be an outcome.

Hi Caroline,

we (my supervisors and I) are also working on a review paper focusing on the impacts of climate change on African Forests. I am not so sure which area (place) you are covering. If you are also looking at Africa, I can send you some literature I have come across so far. please let me know

Regards

We published a paper last year looking at winter vs spring warming impacts on species phenology: http://www.pnas.org/content/109/23/9000.short

This research note (attached) points to a couple of papers

Thank you all for the helpful responses! Justine: Yes, we are interested in all terrestrial areas, providing it pertains to winter climate change specifically (or links between winter and growing season). Benjamin: Indeed, your paper is one of the center pieces of our section on phenology and the impact of chilling/ vernalisation thresholds.

Please you could get alot of info from Prof Kenneth Raffa unversity of Wisconsin he is working extensively on

Mountain Pine Beetles,Pinyon ips, and Spruce Bettles with respect to winter ecology

7 2007

Wintertime climatic trends in the western Himalayas

AP Dimri, SK Dash

Climatic change 111 (3-4), 775-800

please see this over the western Himalayas

It may be useful to have a look at some papers by Jürgen Kreyling such as this one: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/09-1160.1

I hope it helps! Best wishes!

Many examples in the Arctic.

You can find our paper on lemmings in my profile (Global Change Biology 2009)

Also a recent review we published with many references (Ann NY Acad Sci 2012)

Best

In the attached paper we argue that winter precipitation is an important driver of vegetation in the northern Great Plains of North America. Especially see section 8.6. "Mid-Holocene Amaranthaceae, Ambrosia, and high variability."

Article A high-resolution record of climate variability and landscap...

Several studies regarding the Red Imported Fire Ant were conducted a few years ago and, more recently, the Asian Needle Ant.

A Climate Model of the Red Imported Fire Ant, Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae): Implications for Invasion of New Regions, Particularly Oceania

http://www.uow.edu.au/~mwand/publicns/Suthers.pdf

Predicted range expansion of the invasive fire ant, Solenopsis invicta, in the eastern United States based on the VEMAP global warming scenario

http://afrsweb.usda.gov/sp2UserFiles/Place/66151015/publications/Morrison_et_al-2005(M-3988).pdf

The utility of species distribution models to predict the spread of invasive ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) and to anticipate changes in their ranges in the face of global climate change

http://www.life.illinois.edu/suarez/publications/Roura_Suarez2008MyrmNews.pdf

http://www.issg.org/database/species/ecology.asp?si=77

Propagule Pressure and Climate Contribute to the Displacement of Linepithema humile by Pachycondyla chinensis

http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0056281

Dear Caroline,

There are thousands of scientific papers of the effects of climate change on flora and fauna. When you refer to winter climate driving terrestrial species, the first example that pops into my mind is the recent outbreaks of pine beetles, destroying millions of pine trees, both in the US and Canada. To my knowledge is is mainly the less extreme winter temperatures that make the pine beetles survive, where formerly they did not. If you want to know more just Google on "pine beetle climate change" and choose scientific articles.

You could also look in the 4th assessment report of the IPCC (2007) WG2: impact adaptation & vulnerability.

Pine and spruce beetles, 107, 228, 283, 623, 624, 631, 667

See also Disturbance regimes; Insect pests; Insects

P631: "Risks of losses from Southern pine beetle likely depend on the seasonality of warming, with winter and spring warming leading to the greatest damage (Gan, 2004)."

You can download the complete Report from www.ipcc.ch en look for the word Beetle that will yield all occurrences in the report and also most of the references used.

IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976pp.

Gan, J.B., 2004:Risk and damage of southern pine beetle outbreaks under global climate change. Forest Ecol. Manag., 191, 61-71.

Dear Caroline,

Several forest insect pests in boreal environments overwinter as eggs in tree canopies, where they may be killed by low winter temperatures. Increasing winter minimum temperatures can have profound effects on the occurrence of outbreaks of these species. Please, find some examples in the articles listed below:

- Virtanen, T., Neuvonen, S., Nikula, A., Varama M. & Niemelä, P.. (1996) Climate change and the risks of Neodiprion sertifer outbreaks on Scots pine. Silva Fennica 30, 169-177.

- Virtanen, T., Neuvonen, S. & Nikula, A. (1998) Modelling topoclimatic patterns of egg mortality of Epirrita autumnata (Lep., Geometridae) with Geographical Information System: predictions in current climate and in scenarios with warmer climate. Journal of Applied Ecology 35, 311-322.

- Virtanen, T. & Neuvonen, S. (1999) Performance of moth larvae on birch in relation to altitude, climate, host quality and parasitoids. Oecologia 120, 92-101. [this article deals mainly with the effects of summer weather/climate, but there is a comparison of the relative importance of winter vs. summer factors in Table z]

- Neuvonen, S., Niemelä, P. & Virtanen, T. (1999) Climatic change and insect outbreaks in boreal forests: the role of winter temperatures. Ecological Bulletins 47, 63-67.

- Neuvonen, S., Bylund, H. & Tømmervik, H. (2005) Forest defoliation risks in birch forest by insects under different climate and land use scenarios in northern Europe. Chapter 9 in F.-E. Wielgolaski (ed.) Plant Ecology, Herbivory and Human Impact in Northern Mountain Birch Forests. Springer Verlag, Ecological Studies Vol. 180: 126-138.

Some more recent studies of climatic effects on birch defoliating geometrids:

- Jepsen, J.U., Hagen, S.B., Ims, R.A., Yoccoz, N.G. (2008). Climate change and outbreaks of the geometrids Operophtera brumata and Epirrita autumnata in sub-arctic birch forest: evidence of a recent outbreak range expansion. Journal of Animal Ecology 77: 257-264.

- Ammunét T, Kaukoranta T, Saikkonen K, Repo T, Klemola T. 2012. Invading and resident defoliators in a changing climate: cold tolerance and predictions concerning extreme winter cold as a range-limiting factor. Ecological Entomology, 37(3): 212-220.

Another point is that the proportion of Macrolepidopteran species overwintering in different stages (egg, larva, pupa, adult) shows clear latitudinal patterns. Insect species that overwinter as eggs or adults and are not covered by snow (as normally are the species overwintering in larval or pupal stages) are especially sensitive to direct effects of changes in minimum winter temperatures, see:

- Virtanen, T. & Neuvonen, S. (1999) Climate change and Macrolepidopteran biodiversity in Finland. Chemospere - Global Change Science 1(4), 439-448.

If you are interested in any of the papers in which I’m an author, please send request directly to me.

Seppo Neuvonen

http://www.metla.fi/pp/3654/index-en.htm

To everyone who contributed to this post - thank you for your suggestions, we tried to incorporate as many as we could. If you are interested, the finished product came out today in Biological Reviews:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/brv.12105/abstract

We hope it proves a useful resource.

Thank you!

Caroline

Hi Kenneth,

We used a functional rather than time-based definition of winter (second sentence): "the period during which sustained low temperatures (usually below freezing) occur, and snow accumulates on the ground for some period of time". This allowed us to accommodate different lengths of winter across latitudinal gradients. Although, as you say, some short -term local trends in some temperature variables are flat, in general there is good consensus that winter climate is changing (snow cover as well as temperature). We used long-term (100 year) predictions based on the best available climate models to infer the likely direction of these changes, and discuss potential biological responses to these predicted changes.

I appreciate your comments about interannual variability, and recognise that this is an important driver of organismal responses. One of our calls is to develop a better understanding of phenotypic and evolutionary plasticity in organismal responses, in order to better predict the impacts of short-term variability.

Thanks for taking the time to read and comment on our review, and to share your thoughts on it.

Cheers,

Caroline