Do you know of a mathematical model for duration ICT indexes. For example Duration of Households with Internet. I know three models logistics, Gompertz and Two inertial. Do you know another one?
I think you mean proportion of households with Internet. I know and would use the first two models, but I do not know the last. The full lifetime (life cycle) uptake follows a inverted bathtub curve, so beware of using these models for more than the slow rise to saturation! Such models will not predict retirement of the technology.
How predict retirement of the Internet ? How people will communicate in the future?
The question arises whether people can live without the internet like electricity?
A big problem is that most people are unable to communicate correctly with other people now! They mainly offend others. I do not expect any significant improvements in conversations in a not-too-distant future, The reason of this bad situation is that languages are too difficult for most people to be understood. Moreover, disorder of one's thoughts can be very disturbing and people do not work well enough on their own brains to make them better programmed than before. Perhaps, people will not communicate at all in the future. Many do not seem to want to communicate with others. Regards, Eliza Wajch
Look to the history of penetration of telex machines, fax machines and FTP for guidance on the future penetration (and demise) of the internet usage as we know it today. Don't just do mathemagical predictions! In my children's lifetime, they will see one fibre to the home bringing continuously 1000 TV channels, 500 radio channels, 500 music channels, 1000 news channels, 500 movie channels and Wonderful Worldwide Wideband Web. WWWW (TM)!
The comparison of two different persons done by W. Koczkodaj in his answer is not appropriate in my opinion: "Eliza, you are better than Jan :)". This comparison looks even impolite although it does not offend me. Perhaps, it offends Jan Grzegorek. If this is so, I am sorry. There is a lot of rubbish on TV, in journals, newspapers, in internet and in many other sources of information. The sad and, frequently, even dangrous fact that a lot of pieces of information are untruthful, misleads and discourages users of information; in consequence, there are people who trust nobody.
@Jan: On re-reading the question, By "duration", Jan you may mean "time series of penetration". For medium term forecasting, I would use either Gompertz or Logistic.
Please give me a reference to the 2-inertial model. Thanks.
@Eliza "A million channels / sites to look at, but nothing worth looking at!" So, lets just leave it on the security video of my house...!
Hi Ian
Of course i mean time series. Details about 2-inertial model You can see in my dissertation " Zastosowanie zaawansowanych metod statystycznych do badania rozwoju społeczeństwa informacyjnego w Polsce traktowanej jako system regionów. The use of advanced statistical methods to study the development of information society in Poland treated as a system of regions. "
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