Climate Change, Evidence , Impacts, and Choices
Answers to common question about the science of climate change
https://www.nap.edu/resource/12781/Climate-Change-Lines-of-Evidence.pdf
FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGES, RISKS AND IMPACTS :
http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/tschakert14SYRbern.pdf
Take a look to the change of the sunspots in the past (400 years ago) and now on this side: https://wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung.wordpress.com/2017/01/09/schwache-sonne-kuehle-erde-wie-schwach-wird-der-naechste-sonnenzyklus-nach-2020/
It is in German, but the Pictures are excellent.
It is quite clear that it happens now. The prognosed encrease of global temperature has stopped. The ice area around the North pole during the end of the summers is encreasing.
Climate change is a vast area to discuss. If you really want to know about that, go through different papers online and discussions in research gate and other platforms. I am giving you a link.
https://www.researchgate.net/post/Is_it_time_we_shift_emphasis_from_technological_solutions_to_climate_change_focus_on_the_Human_Dimension#view=5c75ee05979fdc1a21342d0b
Thank you
RK
There is something you should know: I have studied Meteorology in the 1970's and worked in the Climate Center of Hamburg University. Therefore i know everything About the models and there wrong predictions during the past 40 years. None of These models has the ability to reproduce the Dust Bowl during the 1930's in the US. The models are unable to reproduce the cold 100 years after 1600, just 400 years ago and coming in the next 15 to 20 years again.
The weather models are unable to give a prediction of the weather during the next day to Glider Pilots to be able to fly more than 500 kilometres.
I have been during all summers since 1969 with gliders in the atmosphere. I know all about the abilities of meteorologists to predict the wheather. The models are unable to predict wheather and therefore unable to predict "cilmate".
Tetyana Babiy
Climate change is the catch-all term for the shift in worldwide weather phenomena associated with an increase in global average temperatures. It's real and temperatures have been going up around the world for many decades.
Reliable temperature records began in 1850 and our world is now almost 1° Celsius hotter than it was in the period between 1850 and 1900 commonly referred to as the “pre-industrial” average.
The change is even more visible over a shorter time period - compared to average temperatures between 1961 and 1990, 2017 was 0.68° warmer, while 2016 was 0.8° warmer, thanks to an extra boost from the normally-occurring El-Ninô weather system :(
While this temperature increase is more specifically referred to as global warming, climate change is the term currently favoured by science communicators, as it explicitly includes not only Earth's increasing global average temperature, but also the climate effects caused by this increase.
Global effects are niw focused on keeping temperatures from increasing more than 2° above that pre-industrial average, and ideally no more than 1.5°. That goal may still be possible if the international community pulls together.
Let’s have a look at climate change in a single graph. That graph represents the global temperature anomaly, which means how the global temperature differs from some mean or average temperature.
The blue curve is natural climate change that shows us emerging from the last ice age, peaking around 7000 years ago and then slowly descending into the next ice age.
The red spike at the right end of the plot are current temperature measurements dating back to 1961.
This plot shows us two things of importance. The natural climate change occurs over thousands of years. The light blue region surrounding the blue curve is the uncertainty in the temperature estimate.
The red spike at the end is the modern climate anomaly. It’s just marching up.
Ok I will point out one thing about this graph, which otherwise looks like damning evidence for anthropogenic global warming, the historic record may be subject to coarse graining, which means any decadal variations may be averaged out. In contrast, the red graph is fine grained with yearly temperature anomaly measurements. This is where you need to listen carefully to the scientists who publish the research and find out how they addressed possible course graining effects.
So here we don’t have to worry about course graining effects. This shows a correlation between temperature anomaly and atmospheric 𝐶𝑂2 emissions. While correlation does not necessarily means causation, you’d need to be willfully obstreperous to deny a problem here. There is a causal connection between atmospheric 𝐶𝑂2 concentration and global temperature. It’s quite direct. It should remain with the deniers to actually show that there are other influences that counteract the positive effect of 𝐶𝑂2 on the global climate. I’m not aware of any such study. In fact deniers seems to be a relatively lazy bunch who decry “conspiracy”, “emperor’s new clothes”, and other straw man arguments in lieu of actually presenting hard data. Some have the temerity to just state that they are smarter than any climate scientist ever, so by sheer force of intellect, they rebut the mountain of scientific evidence.
Here I have provided two graphs. I admit the first may be subject to course graining error and the second is a solid correlation, but not a proof of causation. There is no doubt that human activity is responsible for the 𝐶𝑂2 emissions. That’s locked in. However, we are accumulating a mountain of empirical evidence that matches predictions of the effect of a warming climate. What’s more, insurance companies are now starting to factor in their increased liability due to climate change. So believe it or not, the people who stand to lose, will make you pay more for your insurance premiums to offset their increasing exposure to climate change.
In layman’s terms, humans are making the global climate hotter through the release of 𝐶𝑂2 into the atmosphere. The higher global temperature will make weather systems more extreme, causing more damage. Sea water levels will continue to rise. Glaciers will continue to melt. Some places may become too inhospitable to live, causing mass migration and increasing global conflict…
Like the Chinese say, we are living in interesting times.
if you search this key word in scholar, you can see very interesting research.
Dear Tetyana Babiy,
In December 2018, the UN climate summit was held in Katowice in Poland. COP (Conference of the Parties) on climate policy on Earth. UN climate summits, i.e. COP (Conference of the Parties) are global conferences during which climate policy actions are negotiated. Poland twice hosted them - in 2008 in Poznań and in 2013 in Warsaw. In December 2018, the climate summit is held for the first time now in Katowice in Poland.
During this summit, conferences are held, discussions are held on the need to develop a sustainable development policy and the need for development of ecological, renewable energy sources in order to generate a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the future and ultimately reduce the average annual temperature rise on the Earth's surface. From the discussions it follows that it is necessary to develop eco-innovations, new pro-ecological energy sources, development of electromobility of transport means. It is necessary to develop and implement on a large scale renewable energy sources. In addition, it is important to increase the scale of afforestation, as forests and the flora contained in them absorb a large proportion of greenhouse gas emissions.
As part of this year's UN Climate Summit, the 24th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP24), 14th Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP 14) and the Conference of the Paris Agreement signatories (CMA 1) are held. About 20,000 people from 190 countries participate in the event, including politicians, representatives of non-governmental organizations, and scientific and business spheres.
Perhaps during this UN climate summit important and specific agreements, declarations and signed agreements on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions will be taken. The present lectures show that in recent years the warming process of the Earth's climate has accelerated significantly and therefore, in the black scenario of future climate changes, the temperature on the Earth's surface can rise by 4 ° C to the end of the 21st century. If this happened, then the scale of climate-related cataclysms that are dangerous to humans, including droughts, floods, fires and weather anomalies in many places around the world, will increase many times. The problem is very serious globally and therefore a lot depends on whether international cooperation will develop in order to limit these problems and their negative effects.
In view of the above, I would like to ask you: Should you think that international cooperation should increase to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on Earth? In addition, another key question arises: how much of this international cooperation is possible, to what extent will real and effective measures be undertaken on the basis of the discussions and declarations undertaken to reduce greenhouse gases?
Please reply. I invite you to the discussion
Data source: http://cop24.katowice.eu
In order to solve the problems related to the global warming of the Earth's climate, international cooperation should develop to develop a common global strategy of pro-ecological activities and sustainable development of the new green economy.
In December 2018, the United Nations climate summit in Katowice took place in Katowice. COP (Conference of the Parties) on climate policy on Earth. UN climate summits, i.e. COP (Conference of the Parties) are global conferences during which climate policy actions are negotiated. Poland twice hosted them - in 2008 in Poznań and in 2013 in Warsaw. In December 2018, the climate summit is held for the first time now in Katowice in Poland.
During this summit, conferences are held, discussions are held on the need to develop a sustainable development policy and the need for development of ecological, renewable energy sources in order to generate a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the future and ultimately reduce the average annual temperature rise on the Earth's surface. From the discussions it follows that it is necessary to develop eco-innovations, new pro-ecological energy sources, development of electromobility of transport means. It is necessary to develop and implement on a large scale renewable energy sources. In addition, it is important to increase the scale of afforestation, as forests and the flora contained in them absorb a large proportion of greenhouse gas emissions.
As part of this year's UN Climate Summit, the 24th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP24), 14th Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP 14) and the Conference of the Paris Agreement signatories (CMA 1) are held. About 20,000 people from 190 countries participate in the event, including politicians, representatives of non-governmental organizations, and scientific and business spheres.
Perhaps during this UN climate summit important and specific agreements, declarations and signed agreements on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions will be taken. The present lectures show that in recent years the warming process of the Earth's climate has accelerated significantly and therefore, in the black scenario of future climate changes, the temperature on the Earth's surface can rise by 4 ° C to the end of the 21st century. If this happened, then the scale of climate-related cataclysms that are dangerous to humans, including droughts, floods, fires and weather anomalies in many places around the world, will increase many times. The problem is very serious globally and therefore a lot depends on whether international cooperation will develop in order to limit these problems and their negative effects.
In view of the above, I would like to ask you: Should you think that international cooperation should increase to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on Earth? In addition, another key question arises: how much of this international cooperation is possible, to what extent will real and effective measures be undertaken on the basis of the discussions and declarations undertaken to reduce greenhouse gases?
The visions of the future, in which global sustainable pro-ecological development is dominating, actually looks like a dream.
But it would be nice if it happened. Unfortunately, currently, too little is being done on this issue, primarily in the field of international co-operative.
The international agreement signed today (December 2018) in Katowice in Poland during the UN Climate Summit does not generate much real new ventures.
Most countries have declared that there will be something to do to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but this is not much.
Most countries do not intend to increase expenditures on pro-ecological undertakings, on necessary reforms in enenvironment, on the development of large investment projects in the field of renewable energy sources.
And there is so little time left, supposedly only a decade of time for necessary reforms to avoid climatic armageddon at the end of the 21st century.
In view of the above, the current question is: If too few activities are being undertaken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
Probably the future of humanity depends on the next decade. If, over the next few years, renewable energy sources replacing traditional energy based on the burning of minerals are developed on a massive scale, it might be possible for humankind to avoid a climatic catastrophe in the 21st century. The international climate agreement that currently (December 2018) concluded in Katowice in Poland may be a late and insufficient agreement, because most countries do not intend to develop high-budget projects for the construction and development of power plants based on renewable energy sources. In addition, changes in the automotive industry, changes leading to the development of motorization in the direction of electromobility are too slow. The problem is serious because it concerns the future of all humanity in the perspective of the next two to three generations, yet the necessary changes and reforms in the implementation of economic principles of sustainable pro-ecological development are too slow. With the current pace of changes, there may be a shortage of time to implement the necessary pro-ecological undertakings, and then the problem of global warming will become an irreversible process and will constantly accelerate!
In view of the above, the current question is: Probably the future of humanity in the 21st century depends probably on the next dozen or so years?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
In my opinion, such factors as effective waste segregation, recycling, reduction of plastic packaging, development of renewable energy sources, electromobility in motorization, afforestation, architectural ecological innovations, etc. are one of the most important factors to enable real implementation of sustainable pro-ecological development based on a new, green economy.
Effective segregation of rubbish, recycling, reduction of plastic packaging is one of the most important factors for the implementation of sustainable pro-ecological development.
These are the necessary determinants of the real implementation of sustainable pro-ecological development based on the concept of green, new economics.
According to the findings of the last UN Climate Summit held in Katowice in December 2018, it is necessary to gradually withdraw from the production and use of plastic packaging, including plastic cutlery, straws, dishes and replace them with biodegradable, produced from some grains and vegetables.
Recently, the European Parliament voted for legal norms, with which this type of plastic packaging and plastic cutlery, straws and dishes will be withdrawn from 2021. This is one of the important activities in the directions of real implementation of sustainable pro-ecological development based on the concept of green, new economics. In addition, it is necessary to increase the efficiency of recycling and the reduction of toxic waste discharged into the environment.
For example, a cigarette butt discharged into the environment pollutes approx. 1000 liters of water. This is just an example suggesting the necessity to continue taking pro-ecological next steps. On the one hand, the role of the state and the media in the issue of pro-ecological education of the society is important. On the other hand, the industry that generates various types of waste, polluting the natural environment, the industry that produces non-degradable or non-biodegradable and toxic packaging and products that are currently not recyclable should be burdened with the costs of implementing new recycling technologies, reclamation of degraded natural environment and removal of toxic waste from this environment.
Only then will the economic pressure force the creation of new eco-innovations, the production of goods from biodegradable materials or materials that can be safely neutralized or burnt in garbage incinerators.
The electrical energy necessary to supply the aforementioned pro-ecological undertakings should come as far as possible from the development of renewable energy sources. Besides, it is necessary to develop electromobility in the automotive industry, etc. Only the synergy of these various pro-ecological undertakings will generate new categories of added value, which in the future will increase the economic efficiency of these processes.
Only this way will it be possible to implement real sustainable development based on the concept of a green, new economy.
In view of the above, I would like to ask you: What are the key determinants of the implementation of sustainable pro-ecological development according to the concept of green economy?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion
It should not be assumed that the global warming process has become irreversible.
It does not have to be too late to develop ecological innovations, renewable energy sources, increase the efficiency of recyclables, reduce plastic production, etc. to implement the concept of pro-ecological sustainable zero development and the implementation of green economy.
Perhaps it is not too late to attempt to implement environmentally sustainable development, we owe it to future generations, we owe it to our children and grandchildren. Such statements have repeatedly appeared during lectures and discussions during the UN Climate Summit, the so-called COP (Conference of the Parties), which was held in Katowice in December 2018.
Dear Friends and Colleagues of RG
The report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows that greenhouse gas levels on the globe are the highest in 800,000 years. Further emission, which arises according to the authors of the report mainly due to the combustion of fossil fuels, will lead to climate changes, which will be the greater, the more intensive will be the release of gases into the atmosphere. The report is a synthesis of earlier findings of the IPCC.
The conducted prognostic analyzes show that if the industrial development proceeds in the same way as before, i.e. without the implementation of eco-innovations, without reducing greenhouse gas emissions, etc. there is a risk that by 2050 the average temperature on the Earth's surface may increase by another one degrees ° C. It would have been an increase in the average temperature on the surface of the Earth from the end of the first industrial revolution, from the beginning of the 20th century by two degrees ° C. Then the pace of climate change will increase so much that the global warming process can escape any control and then the person will not be able to stop or significantly slow down this process. In such a dark scenario, the average temperature on the surface of the Earth until the end of the twenty-first century may increase by as much as four degrees ° C. Then it will be several times the increase of any negative external effects of climate change on the current state. Slak of emerging climatic cataclysms, including tornadoes, droughts, volcanic eruptions, melting of glaciers in chains of mountain peaks and in the arctic circle region at the Arctic will significantly accelerate. The melting of eternal decay in the Arctic region will release further millions of tons of methane and the greenhouse effect will accelerate even further and in the XXII century an increase in the average temperature on the Earth's surface can achieve a geometric pace. Then it will be a disaster not only for human civilization but also for a large part of life forms on Earth. Pradoxically, man as a rational, intelligent being who, evolutionarily gained an advantage over all other forms of life on Earth and subordinated the whole planet to itself, may lead to self-destruction. Or maybe it is not too late to implement a new eco-friendly economy to at least try to stop greenhouse gas emissions and reverse unfavorable global warming processes? It is therefore necessary to promote and implement the principles of sustainable development within the framework of the new green economy.
Please, answer the following questions:
What next with the global warming of the Earth's climate?
Please reply. I invite you to the discussion
Chart. Global Warming. CO2 emissions of greenhouse gases, a forecast of the increase in the average temperature on Earth. Source: NOAA, NASA.
Dear Tetyana,
Could you please specify if you are interested just in the climatic changes or species responces ( vegetation, insects and etc)?
This topic is too broad.
I do not see any silver lining behind dark clouds. The change seems to get worse in the future.
The issue of reducing greenhouse gas emissions is currently one of the most important problems for urgent solutions in connection with the accelerating process of global warming.
The fact that the development of human civilization is largely responsible for the emission of greenhouse gases is an irrefutable fact confirmed by numerous independent research centers.
However, in individual countries, the development of industry is at various stages of development.
In individual countries, sources of greenhouse gas emissions can be presented in a different source structure of these emissions.
In some countries, in large agglomerations, the main source of greenhouse gas emissions is transport based on traditional combustion of fossil fuels, combustion of low-quality mineral and non-mineral minerals in domestic furnaces, and energy based on mineral combustion.
Therefore, I am asking you the following questions:
And how is greenhouse gas emissions in your countries or cities?
What are the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions in your country, in the cities where you live?
If you live in cities, is smog a problem?
Is smog the problem in your cities mainly in the winter season or also in other seasons?
Is the greenhouse gas emissions structure in your country significantly different compared to global greenhouse gas emissions data?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
Chart. Global Warming. CO2 emissions of greenhouse gases, a forecast of the increase in the average temperature on Earth. Source: NOAA, NASA.
The above discussion inspired me to the following considerations:
Is it possible that man with the help of modern RES energy technology would stop the greenhouse effect on Earth?
Unfortunately, more and more data and research centers scientifically confirms that progressively progressing global warming has become a fact. First and foremost, human activity influences this. The impact of natural factors is significant, however, the progress of civilization, industrial development, greenhouse gas emissions in the past few decades has increased significantly and continues to grow. The biggest problem may be the inability to reverse this process even if all of the industry, energy and transport are now switching to renewable energy sources.
In view of the above, the current question is: Is it possible that man with the help of modern RES energy technology would stop the greenhouse effect on Earth?
Please, answer, comments. I invite you to the discussion.
At the end of 2018, they were recorded in Europe numerous weather anomalies such as snowfall in Spain, floods in Italy, almost summer temperature in some places in Central and Eastern Europe are recorded in Europe. From year to year, more and more warm winters are recorded in many places around the globe. In addition, for several years, higher and higher annual average temperatures have been recorded. More and more areas in Africa are covered by droughts, lack of rainfall and higher heat temperatures. In some coastal locations, off the coast of the oceans, in America, in Southeast Asia, in Polynesia tornadoes appear more and more dramatic. However, in Alaska, Canada, Norway and other countries where there are glaciers in the mountains, there are fewer and fewer glaciers. In the 20th century, a significant part of these glaciers melted. does it mean that the greenhouse effect on Earth is progressing so fast and is it already an irreversible process?
It probably already works globally, the greenhouse effect and weather anomalies in many places in the world are a derivative of this progressive global warming, ie the recorded rise in the average temperature on Earth.
In some places on Earth from year to year, the average temperature is gradually rising, but there are places on the Earth where there was no real winter before, there was no frost and snow, and in recent years such a winter begins to appear. Cold weather recorded in some geographic places on Earth may also be a result of a globally increasing global warming. This is one of the elements of more and more emerging weather anomalies.
Are current weather anomalies in Europe derived from the progressive greenhouse effect on Earth?
Do current weather anomalies occurring in many places on Earth are a derivative of the globally progressing greenhouse effect?
Please reply. I invite you to the discussion
Dear Friends and Colleagues of RG
Will we be able to stop or at least completely slow down adverse climate changes, global warming, progressing greenhouse effect on Earth?
This is probably the most important problem to explore and solve in the 21st century.
Unfortunately, many people, including politicians and entrepreneurs managing large industrial corporations ignore the seriousness of this problem. It is necessary to develop research in this area, in the matter of examining the determinants of climate change, global warming, rising average temperature on the Earth, progressing greenhouse effect on Earth. These problems must be publicized in the mass media. While it is not too late, while this unfavorable process can be partially reversed. Or maybe we can not reverse this process anymore? Maybe it's too late? What then, will we be able to protect, at least partially, the biosphere, natural ecosystems due to these adverse climate changes, anomalies and climatic cataclysms, from drought in many areas currently agricultural or possessing a rich biosphere? Research on these topics needs to be developed, publicized, and published. Perhaps, finally, politicians and owners of industrial corporations will change their approach to more pro-ecological. This is probably the most important question for the 21st century: Will we be able to stop adverse climate changes, including the progressing greenhouse effect on Earth?
Please reply. I invite you to the discussion
If it is no longer possible to reverse the global warming process, will we at least slow down the adverse climate change, the warming of the Earth's temperature, the progressive greenhouse effect on Earth?
What actions should be taken now to make this possible in the 21st century?
I have to agree with you, Anjay. I'm afraid that if no drastic changes occur in terms of climate change policies and regulations, nature will restore the equilibrium itself.
Climate Change, Evidence , Impacts, and Choices
Answers to common question about the science of climate change
https://www.nap.edu/resource/12781/Climate-Change-Lines-of-Evidence.pdf
climate will be changing in the future; changes will be different in different locations; changes might benefit some regions, but one can say for almost certain that disadvantages will be greater than advantages.
Climate has changed at every time due to solar influence and solar variability. At present time scientists have the knowledge and computer systems to give better predictions of solar activity in the next 20 to 50 years. These calculations show a time of very few number of solar spots. Between 1600 and 1700 the number of sunspots was near zero and if this happens again temperatures on Earth will decrease again.
One Thing happened: The encrease of temperature has stopped since the last 10 years and the ice on the North Polar Ocean is encreasing now during the last summers.
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