Dear Mohamed Ben-Haddad

I will relate my response to weather and climate change, it is possible to speculate weather in a short term duration compared to climate, based on their definitions. The same ideologies would apply to global warming effects becuase to effectively register variations in the ecosystem as a result of global warming, it would take lots years. Additionally, the ecosystem as the capacity to adapt to change, thats just nature. When these conditions are prolonged though, the ecosystem will loose their adaptability capacity, hence a severe global warming effect.

Happy Ramathan,

Tom

Hi Tom Okot ,

Thank you for your passage, my friend. Indeed, you have confirmed the long-term duration to know about the global warming effect. Even though, you've talked about a relevant thing: "Ecosystem Adaptation", it is very important to know that and presume its role!

Best wishes!

M. B.

You have to statistically prove the climate change first

If you are interested in impacts, you must first show that that observed climate change is greater than the normal fluctuations, which is easier for temperature than for rainfall or rare extreme events for which you don't have a long time series. Then you have to robustly attribute an observed impact to this climate change. Attribution is a science in itself and there is a large recent literature on it, but distinguishing climate change impacts from other, concurrent changes, such as land-use change, pollution, invasive species, exploitation can be extremely difficult.

Hi Mr. @R. T. Corlett,

Thank you for your comment. Indeed, it is hard to distinguish climate change impacts from other local changes caused by local human activities. I can join all your comments to say that it is scientificalley impossible and inaccurate to assess global change (=climate) in a short / medium term duration.

Best regards

M. B.

If you are willing to accept some degree of uncertainty, there now are techniques for attribution of extreme events to climate change, but you can't get better than, for example, 'this event was 3.5 times more likely because of anthropogenic climate change'.

Ok mister Corlett, I understand ! Thank you.